slapdash Posted October 27, 2006 Author Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Very very good horse' date=' but always second:)[/quote'] Second's OK.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Second's OK.:ok If it is interesting: 47% Probability for place and 24% Probability to win (by my system) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 27, 2006 Author Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.00 Uttoxeter Smeathe's Ridge (14/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite. We're getting 3.8 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.45 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also lower at 13/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 27, 2006 Author Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 That's all for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 27, 2006 Author Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.00 Uttoxeter Smeathe's Ridge (14/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite. We're getting 3.8 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.45 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also lower at 13/1. 15 minutes since I posted this, and the price has not yet been cut. I'm sure all readers of this thread would like to wish the man from Sporting Odds a speedy recovery. But take it easy, and don't go back to work until you're fully fit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
divot2583 Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 :rollin :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 15 minutes since I posted this, and the price has not yet been cut. I'm sure all readers of this thread would like to wish the man from Sporting Odds a speedy recovery. But take it easy, and don't go back to work until you're fully fit. Down to 10/1 :zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 27, 2006 Author Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Very very good horse' date=' but always second:)[/quote'] :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Newmarket 4.25 1st 2 Dr Sharp (IRE) 9-1 2nd 13 Kayf Aramis 10-1 (second againd) :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 :ok Do yo know where we can bet like this: Horse1 Place-second??? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 do a forecast with the first 4 fav's to win and with kayf aramis 2nd :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted October 28, 2006 Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 do a forecast with the first 4 fav's to win and with kayf aramis 2nd :p Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 28, 2006 Author Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Yesterday, Kayf Aramis was placed, and the other two lost, for a 22 point loss overall. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 3787.35 Total Staked: 9300 W/P/L: 63/150/252 Profit/Loss: +2787.35 (Win +864.99, Place +1922.36) Yield: +29.97% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 28, 2006 Author Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.40 Ascot Bureaucrat (9/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 3.25 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.64 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also a bit lower, at 9.6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 28, 2006 Author Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.40 Ascot Masafi (10/1 William Hill) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 3.5 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.9 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also a bit lower, at 10.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 28, 2006 Author Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.40 Ascot Caracciola (18/1 >William Hill) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 5.5 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.75 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also a bit lower, at 18.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 28, 2006 Author Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.30 Ascot Catherine's Run (12/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite. We're getting 3.4 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.96 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also 12/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 28, 2006 Author Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 That's all for now. There are a couple of races at the all-weather meeting at Wolverhampton in the evening that may produce something, but there's not much liquidity on the Betfair place markets for those yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted October 28, 2006 Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I think the Sporting Odds man is back off holiday. Price lasted about 1 min before they made the market SP only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted October 28, 2006 Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I think the Sporting Odds man is back off holiday. Price lasted about 1 min before they made the market SP only. 8/1 :lol Paranoiaaaaaa :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted October 28, 2006 Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.30 Ascot Sirnando 12/1 Sporting Odds We get 3.4 .. lay price is 2.7. Win price @ Betfair is lower ... 11/1. What about it ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 28, 2006 Author Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Just noticed that myself, mileni4uk. When SO cut Catherine's Run, they pushed out Sirnando! 4.30 Ascot Sirnando (12/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. We're getting 3.4 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.64 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also slightly lower, at 11/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted October 28, 2006 Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Yeah .. I took Cathrine's Run @ Ladbrokes 11/1 .. still 3.2 for the place compared to 2.8 lay price ;) Looking forward to winner and a place in this race :ok EDIT: Down to 10/1 :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 28, 2006 Author Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Just one more for this evening: 8.30 Wolverhampton Summer Lodge (7/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite. We're getting 2.4 for the place, compared to lay price of 2.08 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also slightly lower at 7.8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted October 28, 2006 Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Looking forward to winner and a place in this race :ok Almost :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted October 28, 2006 Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Just one more for this evening: 8.30 Wolverhampton Summer Lodge (7/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite. We're getting 2.4 for the place, compared to lay price of 2.08 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also slightly lower at 7.8. Anybody knows: Was here a Jockey change???!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebogga Posted October 29, 2006 Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Cheers Slapdash! Been following your bets for maybe about two months now. Looking at your graph on Sports-punter this system is going through it's worst spell, am I right? Hoping for a great day anyday now :) What are your feelings, has the edge gone from your system because bookies are following this thread? I mean for the rest of us who follow your tips. Anyway, thanks for your work! :hope for today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 29, 2006 Author Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Yesterday, Caracciola, Catherine's Run and Sirnando were placed, and the other three lost, for a 3 point profit. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 3790.35 Total Staked: 9420 W/P/L: 63/153/255 Profit/Loss: +2790.35 (Win +804.99, Place +1985.36) Yield: +29.62% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 29, 2006 Author Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Cheers Slapdash! Been following your bets for maybe about two months now. Looking at your graph on Sports-punter this system is going through it's worst spell, am I right? Hoping for a great day anyday now :) What are your feelings, has the edge gone from your system because bookies are following this thread? I mean for the rest of us who follow your tips. Anyway, thanks for your work! :hope for today! I've just looked at the figures for October. I've had 42 bets, each at 10 points EW, and made a loss of 52.33 points (a negative yield of -6.2%). But I don't think things look quite so bad if you split it into place and win bets. Place bets: 149.34 point profit (+35.6% yield). Win bets: 201.67 point loss (-48% yield). This compares with a yield over the whole year of about +42% for the place bets and +17% for the win bets, so the place yield is down a bit, but you can see that the bad run is almost entirely down to the lack of winners. Because the win parts of the bets are mostly at quite high odds, there is going to be a very large variance in the results; at odds around 8/1, the standard deviation of the yield over 42 bets will be over 40%, so the difference between this month's yield of -48% and the year's yield of +17% is bad, but could quite easily be down to statistical fluctuations. I'd be a lot more worried if the place yield had dropped a lot. Since the place parts of the bets are at lower odds, the variance of the place profits is a lot smaller. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 29, 2006 Author Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.30 Carlisle Moustique de l'Isle (9/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 3.25 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.66 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is slightly lower, at 9.8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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