slapdash Posted January 5, 2006 Share Posted January 5, 2006 I'm going to continue posting selections from my each-way systems this year. I'm going to be a bit more selective about the ones I post on sports-punter.com, especially where there are several qualifying horses in the same race. I'll also post these here. Occasionally I may post selections here that are too late for sports-punter, where they have to be posted at least an hour before the race. I'll also continue my "EW Double System" http://punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19163 where I won't be so selective as with my sports-punter selections, so if anybody wants my full unexpurgated list of selections, that's where to find it. My selections are based on two related systems to try to find value in the place part of each-way bets, usually at early prices. The key idea in both cases is to compare the price on the place given by an each-way bet at bookie's odds with the lay price available for the place at Betfair. If, for example, an early price of 8/1 is available in a large handicap, the place odds from an each-way bet will be 3.00. If the place is available to lay on Betfair at 2.50 then I'll say the early price for the place is "20% better than Betfair". Each-way system. Here I'll look at races with a short-priced favourite (odds-on or close to it) or a race with at least eight runners (so three places paid) and short-priced first and second favourites. If another horse in the race has an early price for the place at least 10% better than Betfair, it will be a selection if the early price for a win is close to the Betfair price. If the Betfair win price is much better, this can be compensated for by the place price being a lot more than 10% better than Betfair. Sometimes I'll suggest starting price rather than early prices for these selections: this is a matter of judgement, depending on whether the early price seems particularly generous compared to other bookies or the Betfair win price, the direction the prices on the horse seem to be moving and other factors. Large Handicap Early Price System. Here I'll look at handicaps with at least 16 runners, so four places are paid. I'll look for horses where an early price for the place is at least 20% better than Betfair and the early price for a win is at least the Betfair win price. I'll always take best early price on these. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted January 5, 2006 Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Looking forward to your continuing success Slapdash :hope Incidentally I was wondering if you've looked at the new "Value Place" forum and website. It struck me that what you've been doing and the sort of things they are looking at over there are fairly similar. It might be a useful place for you to exchange ideas and pick up a few extra pointers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 5, 2006 Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Good luck mate:ok :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 5, 2006 Author Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 My first selection: 2.05 Hereford Knighton Lad (SP) Early price system. An early price of 6/1 is available, with the favourite around 1/2. The place price from a 6/1 each-way bet is 2.20, and the place is available to lay at 1.90 on Betfair, so the early price for the place is about 16% better than Betfair. The win price on Betfair is 8.4 and seems to have been generally drifting recently, so I'll guess starting price will be better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 5, 2006 Author Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.30 Hereford Jimmy Bedney (12/1 Bet365/Stan James) Too late for sports-punter with this one. Early price system. The 12/1 is better than the win price on Betfair, and the place can be laid at 3.00 on Betfair, where we're getting 3.40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 5, 2006 Author Share Posted January 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Not the greatest of starts. Both horses did beat the short-priced favourites :), but were unplaced :sad. I'll have a look at "Value Place", DBDF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 6, 2006 Author Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.20 Towcester Horcott Bay (6/1 Blue Square) Early price system. Lay price for the place on Betfair is 1.74, compared to the 2.20 we're getting, and the win price on Betfair is the same as we're getting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 6, 2006 Author Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.20 Towcester De Blanc (3/1 Blue Square) Early price system. Lay price for the place on Betfair is 1.42, compared to the 1.60 we're getting, and the win price on Betfair is the same as we're getting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 6, 2006 Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Brown envelopes in the meantime I'm afraid - Horcott Bay WD and the field down to seven runners - 1.25 for De Blanc to finish in the frame (ie still 1-3) on BF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 6, 2006 Author Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I should probably have worried about a withdrawal with only 8 runners and the weather as it is. Still, of all the horses to be withdrawn, Horcott Bay is the one I'd have chosen. With the rule 4 I'm now getting odds of 3.70 on De Blanc to win and 1.675 to finish in the first two. Betfair have him 3.35 to win, and bookie's prices are now around 3.25, so I may have lucked my way into some value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 6, 2006 Author Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Interestingly the place price on Betfair for De Blanc is now significantly shorter than that of the odds-on favourite. The favourite has fallen or unseated its rider in its two previous starts this season, which probably explains that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 6, 2006 Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Moneybuyers can easily lock in profit by laying the horse back in both markets as this is a rare occasion when the BF price is now significantly lower even in the win market. Not hijacking the thread, slapdash, just wanted to point it out. Would let it ride myself as you are on extreme value - and there is also the danger of this one finishing in third - after all, the best way IF anyone wants to lay back is to lay back the horse to win and get good value on this to place (albeit has to finish first or second);) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 6, 2006 Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 De Blanc delivers @ SP 7/4:) Good one for the system, slapdash.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemcin02 Posted January 6, 2006 Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hey slapdash Great choice 2day! :nana welldone! Stemcin01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 6, 2006 Author Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Guess I should start keeping records. I'll start with a bank of 1000 points, with level stakes of 10 points each-way. Today De Blanc won with a 10p rule 4 deduction and Horcott Bay was a non-runner. The records won't include non-runners. A 33.75 point profit today, which with yesterday's two losers makes: Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 993.75 Total Staked: 60 W/P/L: 1/0/2 Profit/Loss: -6.25 (Win +7.00, Place -13.25) Yield: -10.42% Note that the record here will be slightly different from that at sports-punter.com because of the occasional bet I'll post here but not there because of the "at least one hour before the race" rule there, like Jimmy Bedney yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 6, 2006 Author Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Thanks, stemcin01. A bit fortunate: if it had been any of the five longshots that had been a non-runner instead of Horcott Bay, I'd probably have had a loser to go with the winner. And from the commentary I heard, it sounds as though I have the jockey on De Blanc (and the jockey on the favourite) to thank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 7, 2006 Author Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.40 Lingfield Bariloche (16/1 Stan James) 1 point EW Early price system. Lay price for the place on Betfair is 2.98, compared to the 4.20 we're getting. The win price on Betfair is 19.00, which is higher than I'd like, but because of the big place difference I'll take this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 7, 2006 Author Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.25 Fontwell Walcot Lad (9/1 Stan James) 1 point EW Early price system. Lay price for the place on Betfair is 2.30, compared to the 2.80 we're getting. The win price on Betfair is about the same as we're getting, at 9.80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 7, 2006 Author Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Sorry, forgot the staking I was using. Both of the above should be 10 points EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 7, 2006 Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Extreme danger of a NR in the 1.40 @ Lingfield:( Hopefully not;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 7, 2006 Author Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Extreme danger of a NR in the 1.40 @ Lingfield:( Hopefully not;) I'm feeling optimistic today! :) 40 minutes to go and all 8 are still in. Both picks today are in 8-runner races, so I guess I'm living on the edge. Still, it didn't work out too badly yesterday, and at least if they go down to 7 runners I'll get a quarter odds for the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 7, 2006 Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 :hope hopefully brown envelopes kept in pockets today.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 7, 2006 Author Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 :hope hopefully brown envelopes kept in pockets today.;) Ah! I've only just worked out what your reference to a brown envelope yesterday meant.:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted January 7, 2006 Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 You've got a brown envelope coming your way T. :lol ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 7, 2006 Author Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Yes, a NR in the Walcot Lad race. :( But I don't think it's Tulenos who gets the brown envelope, DBDF? Is it? :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 7, 2006 Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 That makes me angry..happens alot in 16 runner races too. very suspicious. Anyway, good luck with your system slapdash :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 7, 2006 Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 If it was me, I'd be a bit more tight-lipped, chaps;) Some ten minutes to go for another NR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 7, 2006 Author Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Walcot Lad second, so the Men with Brown Envelopes did me a slight favour again, as I now get quarter the odds. I don't think there was a rule 4 deduction, but I'll wait until my bet's been settled to check before I update my record. Bariloch was nowhere, so a loss on the day, anyway. Whose bright idea was it to be more selective this year, anyway? :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 7, 2006 Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Walcot Lad 2nd @ SP of 13/2 - not sure about the reduction factor and whether you were on a better price, slapdash, but a sure return here:) - chickened out of this race myself, though. Good luck to your system in the future, looks interesting;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 7, 2006 Author Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 No, no rule 4 deduction, so that's a total loss of 7.5 points on the day. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 986.25 Total Staked: 100 W/P/L: 1/1/3 Profit/Loss: -13.75 (Win -13.00, Place -0.75) Yield: -13.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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