DeepBlueDevilFish Posted January 13, 2006 Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 :welcome to PL Trying Tipster. Hope you enjoy it here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemcin02 Posted January 13, 2006 Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hey Slapdash " your the man! " :nana I thought being Friday 13th ,i would have a shit day, i guess not :) Anyway thanks for helping me to make some excellent profits today and welldone :ok Steve :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 13, 2006 Author Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Shit! Is it Friday 13th? I'd have had a day off if I'd realized. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted January 13, 2006 Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2 14/1 winners and he's still 200pts behind Ridle. :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 13, 2006 Author Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 So, Idris (14/1) and Culcabock won, and the other two were unplaced. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1362.65 Total Staked: 400 W/P/L: 6/2/12 Profit/Loss: +362.65 (Win +339.00, Place +23.65) Yield: +90.66% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 13, 2006 Author Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2 14/1 winners and he's still 200pts behind Ridle. :rollin I took the 16/1 on one of them! Does that mean I'm only 187.5 points behind? :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted January 13, 2006 Share Posted January 13, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Your closer than that Slapdash. Ridle has got Nadal and Safin down to win the Australian Open.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 14, 2006 Author Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 12.45 Lingfield Direct Debit (3/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW Each way system. Clear second favourite after an odds-on favourite. The lay price for the place on Betfair is 1.43, compared to the 1.60 we're getting, and the win place on Betfair is the same as we're getting. The price seems to be on the way down, so I'll take the 3/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 14, 2006 Author Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The price seemed to last about a minute after I posted that! Not long enough for me to post it on sports-punter.com. Sorry about that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 14, 2006 Author Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Three horses in the 1.45 at Carlisle will probably be selections (Numero Un de Solzen, Kempski, and Matmata De Tendron). However, it's an 8-runner race and I'd take SP on all of them, so I may as well wait in case there's a non-runner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 14, 2006 Author Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Personally I'm still going to wait until just before the race in case of a non-runner, but I'll make these "official" selections anyway. 1.45 Carlisle Numero Un de Solzen (SP) Kempski (SP) Matmata de Tendron (SP) 10 points EW on each. Each way system. The race has a long odds-on favourite. All three horses have a best early price giving a much better place price than the lay price on Betfair: 1.7 (compared to 1.3), 4.2 (compared to 2.6), and 7.6 (compared to 3.95). This is enough to compensate for the fact that we'll be getting pretty poor prices on the win half of the bets. Main reason I'm taking starting price is so that I can wait to see if there's a non-runner before betting; other than that it's a toss-up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 14, 2006 Author Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Direct Debit won the 12.45 and Numero Un de Solzen and Matamata de Tendron were both placed in the 1.45 at SPs of 4/1 and 40/1 (so taking SP worked out well, as the best early prices were 7/2 and 33/1). That works out to a profit of 84 points. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1446.65 Total Staked: 480 W/P/L: 7/4/13 Profit/Loss: +446.65 (Win +339.00, Place +107.65) Yield: +93.05% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 14, 2006 Author Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hmm, I don't think this happens very often, but in that 1.45 race you could actually have made a very small guaranteed profit by backing the favourite to win and the other seven runners each-way at SP for suitable stakes, with the possibility of a more reasonable profit if the favourite hadn't won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 14, 2006 Share Posted January 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 memo to bowles : make sure you read Slapdash thread before you have a bet!!! Great 2 days for you matey, well done:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 16, 2006 Author Share Posted January 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 12.50 Fakenham Eleazar (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. The favourite is about even money. Best early price for Eleazar is 9/4, which gives odds of 1.45 for the place. The lay price for the place on Betfair is 1.30, and the win price on Betfair is 3.30, just a touch more than the 9/4, which makes this just about a selection. Yet again, it's a toss-up whether to take SP or the early price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 16, 2006 Author Share Posted January 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.50 Fakenham Arumun (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. First and second favourites around 6/4 and 7/4 on early prices, with our horse having a best early price of 7/2, giving odds of 1.70 for the place. The lay price on Betfair for the place is only 1.43, which makes this a clear selection even though the win price on Betfair (5.20) is a bit bigger than the 4.50 available as an early price. In these races with two short-priced market leaders, it often seems that the betting on course is all about the top two, and the others drift slightly, so I'll take SP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 16, 2006 Author Share Posted January 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.50 Fakenham Thistlecraft (14/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. Favourite around even money. We're getting 15.00 for the win, compared to 13.00 on Betfair, and 3.80 for the place compared to a lay price of 3.20 on Betfair, so a clear selection. Since Stan James' price is significantly better than other bookies and the Betfair win price, we'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 16, 2006 Author Share Posted January 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Our luck with the non-runners holds up again. The favourite in the 2.50 was a NR, cutting the race down to seven runners and only two places. But Thistlecraft won, and we'll have got about 7/1 after the rule 4 deduction (SP was only 9/2), and a quarter the odds for the place. The other two were placed at 15/8 and 4/1, so we'll make a small loss on those. I'll update the records when I know exactly what the rule 4 was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 16, 2006 Author Share Posted January 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 OK, a 50p rule 4 deduction on Thistlecraft. That makes a 79.25 point profit on the day. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1525.90 Total Staked: 540 W/P/L: 8/6/13 Profit/Loss: +525.90 (Win +389.00, Place +136.90) Yield: +97.39% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 16, 2006 Share Posted January 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Memo to self: copy Bowles and read this thread more often. Looking good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 17, 2006 Author Share Posted January 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 No selections today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 17, 2006 Share Posted January 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 :rollin Damn you, built myself up into cescendo of excitement..... :rollin I look forward to your next day of selections. :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 17, 2006 Share Posted January 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hi Slapdash, Just found your excellent thread :ok Hope you dont mind me asking a few questions. How many bookies do you need to open accounts with to take advantage of the early prices ? I'm guessing sp = starting price - have you ever checked to see if it's more profitable to use betfair for this or the bookies ? Also if the price drops quickly after your posting is it still worth placing the bet ? TIA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 17, 2006 Author Share Posted January 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hi Kanga, To answer your questions: How many bookies' accounts? Obviously the more you have, the more likely you are to be able to get the best price. But there are a few bookies who quite often seem to have the best prices: Stan James, Sporting Odds (or Sporting Bet who have exactly the same prices), UK Betting (or Totalbet who have exactly the same prices). These three probably cover the majority of the bets. If you add Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Blue Square and Paddy Power, you'll cover all but a few. Yes, SP is starting price. If you look at the description in the first post of this thread of how the systems work, you'll see that the key input is that the Betfair place price is a lot worse than the place price you'd get by placing an each-way bet at the best early price. When I recommend SP, I am of course hoping that this will be an even better price. Often the Betfair win price is a bit better than SP, but not the Betfair place price, and this is where the profit has come from in the past (the number of winners I've had so far this year is exceptional ... it's not always going to be this good!). So I'm pretty sure that in the long run you'd do worse betting at Betfair. For the selections of the "large handicap" system, I never recommend SP. Here SP and the Betfair price are virtually always worse than the best early price. If the price drops, but not by too much, it may sometimes still be worth betting. Again, I've described how the system works, so it's possible to check if the criteria are still satisfied by the lower price. Just to expand on the win/place point. In the latest stats above, you'll see that so far this year the place halves of the bets are showing a yield of about 50%. This is not dissimilar to the results I got last year: even a bit worse than last year, I think. But the win halves of the bets are showing a yield of well over 100% so far this year. Unfortunately this won't last! Last year I made a loss on the win halves of the bets, but a small enough loss that together with the place halves I still made a healthy profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 18, 2006 Author Share Posted January 18, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.20 Newcastle Notaproblem (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. Favourite around even money and second favourite around 7/4. At the best early price of 7/1, we'd get 2.40 for the place. The lay place price on Betfair is only 1.75, so this is a clear selection despite the fact that the Betfair win price is as high as 10.5. As in a few races like this lately, I'll guess that the price will drift a bit on course as the betting will be all about the front two in the market, so I'll take SP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 18, 2006 Author Share Posted January 18, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Notaproblem was placed at 8/1. In the 3.50 Newcastle, Mrs. O'Malley (10/1) and Monifieth (14/1) are almost selections. I'll probably check the odds before the race and bet on one or both of them if I can get better prices than that. But not "official" selections unless the Betfair prices go down before then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 18, 2006 Author Share Posted January 18, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 OK. "Official": 3.50 Newcastle Monifieth (14/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 18, 2006 Author Share Posted January 18, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Monifieth unplaced (as was Mrs. O'Malley). Total loss of 14 points on the day. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1525.90 Total Staked: 580 W/P/L: 8/7/14 Profit/Loss: +511.90 (Win +369.00, Place +142.90) Yield: +88.26% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.30 Taunton Topkat (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds-on favourite. The best early price on Topkat is 6/1, giving 2.20 for the place. The lay place price on Betfair is only 1.96, so since the win price on Betfair is also around 7.00, this is a selection. Another toss-up as to whether to take the price, but I'll go for SP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.50 Ludlow Imperial Rocket (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds-on favourite and shortish priced second favourite. The best early price is 20/1, giving 5.00 for the place. The lay place price on Betfair is only 3.05. This massive difference makes this a selection despite the fact that the Betfair win price is much bigger at 34.00. As with others recently where there have been two clear market leaders in the race, I'll take SP and hope to get more than 20/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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