jay78 Posted January 7, 2006 Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hi Slapdash im new here and have read all of your threads but noticed something that puzzles me. Looking at Sports punters you won the award for best tipster for 2005 (congratulations) but i cannot find the tips etc you gave on this forum to show the 1500+ points you won last year. Are the tips you give on Sports punter the best bets or am i getting confused Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 7, 2006 Author Share Posted January 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hi Slapdash im new here and have read all of your threads but noticed something that puzzles me. Looking at Sports punters you won the award for best tipster for 2005 (congratulations) but i cannot find the tips etc you gave on this forum to show the 1500+ points you won last year. Are the tips you give on Sports punter the best bets or am i getting confused Thanks Hi profitguy! Last year I mostly just posted the tips on Sports Punter, although some of the tips appeared here in the thread called "EW Double System" which is still running and an older thread called something like "Large Handicap System". This year there's more prize money for the Sports Punter competition, and 50% of the prize money is conditional on posting the tips here as well. I won't try to pretend that this hasn't influenced my decision to post my Sports Punter tips here more regularly this year. ;) I've started off being more selective about choosing the tips to post on Sports Punter (and in this thread) this year, though more selections will be included in the "EW Double System" thread with no write up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay78 Posted January 8, 2006 Share Posted January 8, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Thanks for the reply. Ive decided to follow your tips with 200 quid starting money, would you recommend i follow the tips at Sports Punter? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 8, 2006 Author Share Posted January 8, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I'm too superstitious to recommend that anybody else follows any of my tips, but if you want to ... I think that in the long run the ones I post on Sports Punter and here will be more profitable than the additional ones that go into the "EW Double System" thread, at least if you back them as singles. However, I'm not sure of it. The ones I post in this thread but not on Sports Punter are not "second class" tips, they are just ones that are too late to go on Sports Punter. If you (or anybody else) do put money on these, here are a few pieces of advice: Don't bet win-only, even on the shorter priced ones. Please remember that the profit in the past has all come from the place half of EW bets. I've had a few long-priced winners, and these are the ones that people tend to comment on, but I'm happy if I come close to breaking even on the win half of the bets in the long run. Also, most of these are recommended at early prices, and often getting the best early price is important, as the prices shorten (this is particularly true of the Large Handicap bets, but there won't be so many of them until the flat season). So if the best early price has gone, or you don't have an account with that bookie, think twice about taking a shorter price. In the nature of things, it quite often happens that the best early price does get cut. I'm careful to check it's still available when I post here or on Sports Punter, but it sometimes disappears embarrassingly quickly after I post. Unfortunately there's no way I can know when that's going to happen. Things change, and sometimes the Betfair place price lengthens after I've posted a selection, and I start to regret it. But I've described how the systems work in the first post of this thread, so you can look for yourself at the Betfair prices before deciding whether to bet. This also applies if the best early price has gone and you want to know if it's still likely to be value at a shorter price. Be wary of non-runners. They can reduce the number of places paid if they bring the number of runners below 8, or below 16 for a handicap, which obviously affects the value of an EW bet significantly. Even if a non-runner doesn't affect the number of places paid, it can significantly affect the betting markets if it was one of the market leaders. You may want to avoid the 8-runner races and 16-runner handicaps, and maybe I should. By the way, note that if a non-runner changes the number of places paid, the Betfair place market is still for the original number of places and so will not be directly comparable with bookies' prices. Good luck if you do bet on these, but remember that the value of your investment can go down as well as up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay78 Posted January 8, 2006 Share Posted January 8, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Thanks for the advice Slapdash, i know u seem reluctant to tell members to back your picks but the points u won last year speak for themselves. It seems as if you are well in profit from last year and if you get anywhere near that amount this time round i will be onto a winner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 8, 2006 Author Share Posted January 8, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Thanks for the advice Slapdash' date=' i know u seem reluctant to tell members to back your picks but the points u won last year speak for themselves. It seems as if you are well in profit from last year and if you get anywhere near that amount this time round i will be onto a winner[/quote'] I'm just a coward, profitguy. I don't want anybody else's financial losses on my conscience if things don't go so well! One point that I've mentioned before, but you may not have seen. Last year's Sports Punter rules meant that all each-way horse-racing bets were settled at 1/4 the odds for a place. This had the unintended consequence that it gave a big advantage to a lot of my bets. I'd still have ended up with a healthy lead, but this boosted my profits by something like 30%. This year the each-way terms will be fairer. Be prepared for some lengthy losing spells, especially during the flat season when I'll be picking lots of long-priced runners in large handicaps. Personally I bet around 2% of my current betting bank (i.e., 1% each way) on the shorter priced ones, down to about 1% on the long-priced (20/1 or bigger) ones. This is fairly conservative based on last year's record, but I certainly wouldn't recommend much more than twice that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 12.40 Newcastle Springvic (9/1 Stan James) 10 points EW Early price system. First and second favourites are very short priced. Lay price for the place on Betfair is 2.40, compared to the 2.80 we're getting. The win price on Betfair is 10.50, which is only marginally higher than we're getting, so that's OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.10 Newcastle Cyborg de Sou (12/1 Blue Square) 10 points EW Early price system. First and second favourites are short priced. Lay price for the place on Betfair is 2.92, compared to the 3.40 we're getting. The win price on Betfair is 14.00 compared to the 13.00 we're getting, which is acceptable given the difference in place prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.40 Newcastle Rathowen (8/1 William Hill) 10 points EW Early price system. An odds-on favourite. Lay price for the place on Betfair is 1.96, compared to the 2.60 we're getting. The win price on Betfair is 9.60, which is not too much higher than the 9.00 we're getting, and is certainly acceptable given the difference in place prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Rathowen was a winner, but the other two were unplaced, so that's a profit of 56 points today. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1042.25 Total Staked: 160 W/P/L: 2/1/5 Profit/Loss: +42.25 (Win +47.00, Place -4.75) Yield: +26.41% [Corrected to replace the 900 points somebody had stolen from the bank!] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemcin02 Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 hey Slapdash great work 2day. :ok Im just wondering how may of the short priced favourite races you pick, how many times does the favourite actually go onto win? Steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 142.25 Total Staked: 160 W/P/L: 2/1/5 Profit/Loss: +42.25 (Win +47.00, Place -4.75) Yield: +26.41% There's a typo on the second line, slapdash, should read Current Bank: 1042.25;) Somehow missed the sels today:(, but defo will check a bit better tomorrow. Good going.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 hey Slapdash great work 2day. :ok Im just wondering how may of the short priced favourite races you pick, how many times does the favourite actually go onto win? Steve Thanks! I've not looked into that, I'm afraid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 There's a typo on the second line, slapdash, should read Current Bank: 1042.25;) Thanks. I've corrected that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay78 Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Nice work Slapdash Would you reccomend i place bets on betfair or are the prices not worth it on most occasions? Ive noticed the price to place is'nt always very good. How would i have backed the tips for today 50% of my stake on place, and 50% on straight win?? Hope you know what i mean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 If you read the posts with picks, you'll find slapdash often refers to the Betfair price in the place market which is about always much lower than the one you get when betting e/w @ a given bookie price - almost invariably due to the anture of a given race, ie. overwhelming fav etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 That's right, the main input to the system is that the Betfair place price is much lower than the odds I'm getting by taking a bookie's odds, so betting on Betfair is certainly not good value, at least compared to betting with the bookie. So no, I wouldn't advise backing these on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.40 Sedgefield New Wish (33/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW Large handicap early price system. 16 runner handicap. Lay price for the place on Betfair is 6.20, compared to the 9.25 we're getting. The win price on Betfair is 29.00, less than we're getting. The possibility of a non-runner cutting the field to 15 runners is a concern, but such a large disparity in place prices I'll go for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.00 Leicester Cossack Dancer (SP) 10 points EW Early price system. Short priced first and second favourites in this race. Lay price for the place on Betfair is 1.93, compared to the 2.40 that you'd get from the best early price of 7/1. The win price on Betfair is 9.00, which is just about acceptable. I'll guess to take starting price, but it may well turn out better to take the 7/1 at Paddy Power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.00 Leicester Calatagan (SP) 10 points EW Early price system. Short priced first and second favourites in this race. Lay price for the place on Betfair is 2.00, compared to the 2.40 that you'd get from the best early price of 7/1. The win price on Betfair is 9.00, which is just about acceptable. I'll guess to take starting price, but it may well turn out better to take the 7/1 at Ladbrokes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Betfred go 25/1 BOG on New Wish in the 1:40 for anyone following Slapdash's tips today. Thought I'd mention it as the 33/1 at Sporting Odds has now gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Betfred go 25/1 BOG on New Wish in the 1:40 for anyone following Slapdash's tips today. Thought I'd mention it as the 33/1 at Sporting Odds has now gone. Yes, unfortunately the 33/1 only lasted about 10 minutes after I posted. Don't think 25/1 is big enough. 28/1 would be just about OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Nice result in the 2.00 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Calatagan won the Leicester 2.00 at 6/1, beating my other pick Cossack Dancer by a head. Cossack Dancer was 8/1, so I was right to take SP on that, but would have done better to take the price on Calatagan. I'd like to be able to say that my two outclassed the market leaders, but unfortunately the first and second favourites both fell. Not sure what happened to New Wish. The Sporting Life race reports says it was pulled up after the first hurdle. Still, a 58 point profit today. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1100.25 Total Staked: 220 W/P/L: 3/2/6 Profit/Loss: +100.25 (Win +87.00, Place +13.25) Yield: +45.57% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Nice result in the 2.00 :) What do you mean? They finished in the wrong order! :@ Thanks. As I said, a bit fortunate, perhaps. Hope the fallers are OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Win or lose I won't count this one, but a non-runner in the 3.30 Leicester makes Rojabaa now look like a qualifier for the each-way system if you can get 14/1, which was the last best early price (I think all the bookies will have taken down their early prices by now). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hmm. Betfair win price on Rojabaa has drifted, but the place price has shortened. I'll still be on it if I can get 16/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Opened at 14/1 and now 12/1. No bet for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Unplaced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 11, 2006 Author Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hi, lol001 ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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