Cheltenham Ante post thread

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

went through betfair tonight & these were the pick of some LARGE prices of certain races: Supreme Nov Hurdle TEMOIN 90.0 QM Champ Chase CONTRABAND 60.0 Sun Alliance Nov Chase CELTIC SON 90.0 Sun Alliance Nov Hurdle ORCADIAN 140.0 Ryanair chase MY WILL 46.0 Brit Ins Nov Hurdle ZEITGEIST 120.0 Triumph Hurdle LINNET 50.0 problem is some of these wont run but i am pretty sure if any line up, they will be a 1/4 of those odds in some places. I am having a few of these to myself:tongue2

Orcadian now 50's after todays win. Wasnt that impressive by the sound of it, but 1st 2 were a distance clear of the remainder in a 18 runner novice event & 4 seconds faster than the handicap hurdle held later in the afternoon.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

went through betfair tonight & these were the pick of some LARGE prices of certain races: Supreme Nov Hurdle TEMOIN 90.0 QM Champ Chase CONTRABAND 60.0 Sun Alliance Nov Chase CELTIC SON 90.0 Sun Alliance Nov Hurdle ORCADIAN 140.0 Ryanair chase MY WILL 46.0 Brit Ins Nov Hurdle ZEITGEIST 120.0 Triumph Hurdle LINNET 50.0 problem is some of these wont run but i am pretty sure if any line up, they will be a 1/4 of those odds in some places. I am having a few of these to myself:tongue2

Contraband now 38.0:) Celtic Son now 36.0:) Orcadian now 70.0:) My will 55.0:$ just hope they line up now at Cheltenham! Will have a few more of these before the day.

[jeffers]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread Macs Joy canters in. I think I have a good one here at 33s. :eek

[davidmphill]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

Macs Joy canters in. I think I have a good one here at 33s. :eek

Yeah I think you have Jeffers! Best price now 6's!:clap

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

Macs Joy canters in. I think I have a good one here at 33s. :eek

yep good shout Jeffers. Ive got Arcalis but the irish still have the strong hand.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread Thats what you call a good ante post bet Jeffers. Must admit though I still can't see past Hardy. :loon

[Chopper]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread I was looking on betfair this morning and there are two horses running today that i think are big prices. The first one is Manners runs in the 2:00 Sandown today was rumoured to be one of jonjo best bumper horses last year but has been very fragile and difficult to train. Ive took 70/1 on betfair for the sumpreme novice i think if it wins today could be half that price.:hope The other selection is Tarlak runs in the 3:45 at Sandown is entered in two races at cheltenham the supreme novice and also the county hurdle. Is trading at 170/1 for the supreme novice which would tend to suggest the preferred option is the county hurdle although this is a big ask i have taken 45/1 as again if the horse wins today i don't think it will be that big a price after the race :ok

[jeffers]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

Also just noticed L'Ami is a huge price at Stan James for the Gold Cup - 50/1 surely is worth a nibble :hope

Been in the pub all day and not seen his run, but absolutely delighted with L'Ami carting round 12st in soft ground when needing the run. One presumes he'll go to the Gold Cup, and if so, I actually think he goes there with a great e/w chance. :tongue2

[jeffers]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread Thought I'd do a quick check on the prices of my earlier selections...current best prices in red

Arkle Accordion Etoile 6/1 7/1 Back In Front 14/1 25/1 SunAlliance Hurdle Two Miles West 33/1 40/1 Percussionist 33/1 - Champion Hurdle Hardy Eustace 6/1 7/1 Macs Joy 33/1 6/1 World Hurdle Baracouda 8/1 11/2 Gold Cup Take The Stand 28/1 15/1 L'Ami 50/1 16/1

All in all not the best...but a couple of live contenders in the Gold Cup and one in the Champion Hurdle. Had another look through the ante post markets today and tbh can't see much that represents value atm. :(

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

All in all not the best...

I think your being a bit harsh on yourself their mate - a couple of cracking bets in the Gold Cup - L'Ami is all the rage at the moment and TTS is a better horse than the 28/1 suggests. Baracouda at 8/1 is a massive price too. Macs Joy at 33's :eek Id be happy with that lot :clap

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread ARKLE MID DANCER @ 25-1 NINE out of NINE over jumps, at 25/1, big price?!

:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=396967&r_date=2005-12-04',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>04Dec05	Aut	18H		4yH,20K	10-8	1/11	3L, Mon Milord[2/5F] 10-6	B Gicquel	—	—	128
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=396515&r_date=2005-11-27',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>27Nov05	Aut	21Hy		4yG3Ch,44K	10-3	1/7	15L, Benefique[1/2F] 10-3	C Pieux	—	—	125
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=395488&r_date=2005-11-13',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>13Nov05	Aut	21Hy		4yLCh,23K	10-6	1/7	10L, Nyborg Madrik[7/10F] 10-4	C Pieux	—	—	128
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=399986&r_date=2005-10-11',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>11Oct05	Eng	18VSft		4yCh,15K	10-4	1/11	6L, Karoo Du Berlais[30/100F] 9-13	C Pieux	—	—	—
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=399987&r_date=2005-09-25',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>25Sep05	Stb	19Sft		4yH,12K	11-5	1/10	2L, King Diamond 10-12	C Pieux	—	—	—
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=399989&r_date=2005-09-11',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>11Sep05	Cho	17Gd		4yH,12K	10-10	1/5	0-0	C Pieux	—	—	—
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=362739&r_date=2004-10-30',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>30Oct04	Eng	17VSft		3yH,13K	11-3	1/10	2½L, Lorainovich 11-1	P Sourzac	—	—	115
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=399991&r_date=2004-10-05',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>05Oct04	Eng	17VSft		3yH,12K	10-8	1/12	0-0	P Sourzac	—	—	—
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=363012&r_date=2004-09-05',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>05Sep04	Com	16Gd		3yH,5K	10-1	1/11	0-0	M Benhennou	—	—	—

[Carl]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread Right here goes: ve had a word off my mate who give me Firedragon 16/1 winner at sandown plus many others at sandown on that day MR V and Pocket lady will vouch for me These tips come off the same lad(froggy) Foreman for the arkle Beef or salmon and Blue shark Ambobo-stayer? Witchentale lineman(sp?) at 9/1 dont know what race its entered for? Standing obivation (pipe horse for the pertemps) Grand jete for the country hurdle can someone please fill in the blanks? sorry for being vague

[jeffers]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread Wichita Lineman will run in the Bumper at Cheltenham. JJ O'Neill horse, owned by Magnier. Runs tomorrow at Newbury in the 4.55. :ok

[Carl]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread see how it does but at the mo its 9/1 for the cheltenham.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread I had a a good word for Pepperoni Pete for the bumper & it's out tomorrow up against Wichitalineman (last race at Newbury). Betfair have PP at 2.46 & Wichita at 3.55 so it looks like PP's reputation will mean it will go oiff fav. The faces are on at 33's earlier this week & now it is only 16's biggest with Ladbrokes. I'll be having a few quid on now before it goes out tomorrow.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread my bets as they stand various combinations of ew doubles on these (those in brackets also) Arkle - Accordion Etoile 9/2 (plus hoo la baloo) Champion Hurdle - Arcalis 6/1 R & SA novice hurdle - Denman 3/1 R & SA chase - Crozan10/1 (plus Our Ben) Queen Mother - Ashley Brook 7/1 World Hurdle - Mighty man 9/1 Gold cup - Darkness 40/1 (plus ollie Magern) those in bold still in with a fair shout. also: Supreme Nov Hurdle TEMOIN 90.0 won today:D QM Champ Chase CONTRABAND 60.0 will it run? Sun Alliance Nov Chase CELTIC SON 90.0 2nd LTO Sun Alliance Nov Hurdle ORCADIAN 140.0 won 2 weeks ago Ryanair chase MY WILL 46.0 good 3rd LTO Brit Ins Nov Hurdle ZEITGEIST 120.0 missed a run this week Triumph Hurdle LINNET 50.0 won LTO i only need one of those to come in TBH to make a few quid. also: Nikola (supreme nov hurdle) at 50/1 won last week going to add: Bongo Fury 50.0 Betfair or 33/1 P power for the County hurdle. was 2nd to Essex in the Totesport trophy last feb in front of Al Eile. Flopped at Cheltenham in this race last year when 2nd fav for the race. Hasntr been out since last April & will be an excellent training feat by pipe to get it home but i think he has some horses being kept back & this could be one of them.

[Carl]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

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	Event Date	Event	Selections	Odds	E/W Terms
1	14/03/2006	Arkle Chase(Win And Each Way)	Foreman	7/1	3 places 1/4 odds	Remove
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2	16/03/2006	Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final(Win And Each Way)	Standin Obligation	6/1	4 places 1/4 odds	Remove
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3	17/03/2006	County Hurdle(Win And Each Way)	Grande Jete	10/1	4 places 1/4 odds	Remove
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4	17/03/2006	Cheltenham Gold Cup(Win And Each Way)	Beef Or Salmon	5/1	3 places 1/4 odds	Remove
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5	14/03/2006	Champion Hurdle(Win And Each Way)	Ambobo	50/1	3 places 1/4 odds	Remove
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6	15/03/2006	Champion Bumper(Win And Each Way)	Wichita Lineman	8/1	3 places 1/4 odds	Remove
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[Carl]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

Wichita Lineman will run in the Bumper at Cheltenham. JJ O'Neill horse, owned by Magnier. Runs tomorrow at Newbury in the 4.55. :ok

pissed it today apparently;)

[jeffers]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread Aye and it was 9/4 today :eek :eek :eek New bet for me at Chelters:

Event	Cheltenham Gold Cup
Selection	Our Vic (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	17/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 29.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Well the word is that he's going to go to the Gold Cup now, so this price is huge. Has very good form beating My Will, Fondmort and It Takes Time LTO, and Monkerhostin (2nd fav for Gold Cup) on the previous run. Jumps well and handles soft ground. No idea why he's still this price.

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread With all the current entries, Korelo has 11-4 in the Kim Muir, but 10-0 in the WH Chase, I would assume the latter is the preferred option. Doesn't seem good enough for the RSA Chase or the World Hurdle which are the other races he is entered in.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	William Hill Handicap Chase
Selection	Korelo (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	14/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	totesport @ 17.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Is very well treated on hurdles form. His chasing handicap mark is more than a stone less than his hurdling rating. During hurdling, he was 5th in last years Ladbrokes World Hurdle. Took full advantage of chase rating when winning at Chepstow last month. Was very tired when 3rd over 4m1f on Heavy at Newcastle in the Eider so you can possibly ignore that effort as he is better than that. Has talented form, off a low weight could mean he is set to run a massive race in this Festival handicap and the price is value. Trip & ground will suit and will be given a typically patient ride by Murphy.

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread Bowles - re: Our Vic, arent you worried about his stamina? I though about backing him for the GC before he won a couple of weeks ago but to me he seems better at just under 3 miles. I agree he has a good form line through Monkerhostin though so if he does stay.....

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

Bowles - re: Our Vic, arent you worried about his stamina? I though about backing him for the GC before he won a couple of weeks ago but to me he seems better at just under 3 miles. I agree he has a good form line through Monkerhostin though so if he does stay.....

Ak, its jeffers that fancies it. IMO, i think it may be found wanting at the business end of the race, you have to be an out & out stayer to win the Gold cup. Celestial Gold/Royal Auclair/Take a stand (loves fast ground) are currently my 3 against the field.

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

Ak, its jeffers that fancies it.

Yep - sorry - thanks for your thoughts anyway. It would be an amazing training feat by Martin Pipe for Celestial Gold to win it first time out. I couldnt disagree with the other 2 though. Its wide open isnt it - i've given myself a headache from looking at it tonight :(

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread Another bet, this time the Gold Cup :loon

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Cheltenham Gold Cup
Selection	Cornish Rebel (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	17/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	SportingOdds @ 19.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Jumps & stays well. The first four in the betting have either stamina or jumping problems!! However, L'Ami is fancied by many, but Cornish Rebel beat the French raider in last years RSA Chase and was better according to the weights in the Hennessy at Newbury. We havn't seen the best of this horse yet, Walsh will be on board and I can see this horse running a massive race as he will be staying on at the end when some of the others get tired.
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[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

Another bet, this time the Gold Cup :loon

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Cheltenham Gold Cup
Selection	Cornish Rebel (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	17/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	SportingOdds @ 19.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Jumps & stays well. The first four in the betting have either stamina or jumping problems!! However, L'Ami is fancied by many, but Cornish Rebel beat the French raider in last years RSA Chase and was better according to the weights in the Hennessy at Newbury. We havn't seen the best of this horse yet, Walsh will be on board and I can see this horse running a massive race as he will be staying on at the end when some of the others get tired.

Bob, i agree with this pick - a definite each way bet for me. I raised the question of this horses chances in an earlier post on this thread because as well as the form line through L'Ami, he is at home at Cheltenham, the distance wont be a problem and is pretty flexible re: the going. Any other year i dont think he'd be good emough to get involved but this years line up has cut up so badly, he is well worth considering.

[jeffers]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

Bowles - re: Our Vic, arent you worried about his stamina? I though about backing him for the GC before he won a couple of weeks ago but to me he seems better at just under 3 miles. I agree he has a good form line through Monkerhostin though so if he does stay.....

I think the horse is even better than we've seen so far tbh. He won LTO easily without being troubled, stayed onwell in the PP too. Bit of a gut instinct but I can see him coming up the hill and staying on :eek

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

Interesting Jeffers - good luck with it. This run from last year and the RP's race comments would seem to suggest he copes with 3 miles well enough. Just a further 2furlongs to contemplate. I think over 3m 2f he will probably want the ground not too soft though.... ASCOT (21 Feb 2004) Good

3:25 Amlin Plus Reynoldstown Novices' Chase (Class A) Grade 2 (class 1) (5yo+) [off 3:25] £20,825.00, £7,700.00, £3,850.00, £1,750.00, £875.00 20 fences (3m110y) 3m½f

Comments In Running

OR

TS

RPR

1

Our Vic (IRE)

M C Pipe

6

11-4

T J Murphy

Miss H C Knight

6

11-4

J Culloty

P J Hobbs

6

11-4

P Flynn

P F Nicholls

5

10-0 tb

R P McNally

J R Cornwall

7

11-4

R Hobson

Mrs S J Smith

8

11-8

D Elsworth

20/1

132

—

—

6 ran TIME 6m 16.10s (slow by 9.60s) TOTAL SP 112% 1st OWNER: D A Johnson BRED: Col W B Mullins TRAINER: M C Pipe 2nd OWNER: Jim Lewis 3rd OWNER: The 4th Middleham Partnership TOTE WIN £2.20 PL £1.50, £1.60; Ex £5.70; CSF £5.07 ANALYSIS: This race may have lost some of its previous lustre but OUR VIC gave it a welcome buff as he dismissed useful rivals as if they were modest handicappers. His rider was motionless up the run-in after cruising around his rivals into the straight, making any official distance meaningless and certainly a large multiple of the six lengths recorded.

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread AK1979, in my opinion Our Vic didn't stay the Royal & Sunalliance Chase over 3m1/2f in 04. The Gold Cup is 2f longer and has the longer run in with 2 fences on the New Course (as they call it) whereas the RSA Chase is run on the Old Course with 1 fence in the home straight and to me the longer home straight in the Gold Cup and the hill, I have serious doubts about whether he'll stay.

[peteg40]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread

I have had a very good word for ZABENZ in the Sun Alliance Chase on Wed 15th The horse is trained in Minehead by Phillip Hobbs and is already a winner here after very good campaigns in both New Zealand and the States, and will be ridden by Richard Johnson. I have backed this at 25/1..... now down to 20/1.

Backed down to 14/1....... as low as 10/1 @ Ladbrokes:ok

[jeffers]

Re: Cheltenham Ante post thread He's one of those horses. One of them (a bit like Rhinestone Cowboy who never actually proved how good he was) that you can see improving a stone out of nowhere. He oozes class...I think the odds are way too big tbh, even if he doesn't win 28/1 is huge for e/w backers.