Football-Tipper Posted October 10, 2005 Share Posted October 10, 2005 The Martingale system is a very old and extremely simple system. It is based on the probability of losing infinite times in a row and is usually applied to 'even money' bets. You start with one bet. If you win, you start again with one bet. If you lose, you double your bet. Each time you lose, you double your last lost bet. Eventually you are bound to win. When you win you would recover all your lost bets plus one unit profit against your initial wager. Although infallible in theory, the Martingale system requires a large bankroll. So to put it in simple terms.... I will have a starting Bank of £1550 and this will allow me 5 bets 1. £50 2. £100 3. £200 4. £400 5. £800 Now if I get 5 bets wrong on the trot I break my bank:sad Each bet will be a football bet and will also have odds no shorter than Evens. Each winning bet will add £50 to the Bank This is just an experiment to see if I can do it and if I'm successful I'll be looking into doing it for real. Regards Football-Tipper Cue 5 losers on the trot :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 10, 2005 Share Posted October 10, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Hi, football tipper, I don't want to be the first to pour cold water on your idea, (there are plenty of others who will do that!), but Martingale, in the Punter's Lounge is synonymous with 'sacrilege' and 'the road to ruin'. However, you sound as if you know what you are doing, and whilst I wish you all the luck in the world, (which I somehow feel you will need), your assumption that eventually you are bound to win is unsound, particularly as you are limited to '5 strikes and out'. I am all for strategic, planned betting, and adventurous risk taking, but this is a little beyond that, and the odds are truly stacked against you. But go on, prove me wrong....I truly hope that you will profit, and you may well do in the short run, but it is impossible to maintain the 'martingale' for any length of time, unless you are blessed with infallible predictive powers..... P.S. there is a spare padded cell, just down the corridor from my secure containment area , if you need it....:loon Good luck, FT!! :ok :hope .....don' t take me too seriously...no one else does.....:eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted October 10, 2005 Share Posted October 10, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System It§s amazing you even state the main mathematical flaw but still decide to go for it. It is based on the probability of losing infinite times It is not. It is based on the theory that the second time you throw a coin, the opposite result is more probable - which is nonsense the Martingale system requires a large bankroll yes, that's correct - and sure more than your bank when starting @ 50 pts with the first bet. Five bets in a row are lost as nothing and the main prob dwells in the fact you actually are not winning @ evens, but the win odds effectively lower the further you bet. Please - do yourself a favour and use that search button @ the top of the page and enter Martingale into it to fing the threads where it was discussed. Martingale is not the way to go, is mathematically flawed and your capital is @ extreme risk. Sorry for being a bit harsh, but this is exactly what might lure inexperienced punters into a disastrous loss. Generally, too, it doesn't matter whether you wager 50 pounds or 50 pennies per bet. Some people are high-rollers, others are small time punters. Instead of the amounts of cash which may be misleading - ie. is your real-money bank actually 1550 pounds (a lot of money to try a system with) - it's more recommendable to use points or units. Up to you, though. Best of luck with all your efforts, mate;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted October 10, 2005 Share Posted October 10, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Martingale, in the Punter's Lounge is synonymous with 'sacrilege' and 'the road to ruin'. Not only here, spreadman;) don' t take me too seriously...no one else does.....:eek I for one consider you one of the more astute punters in here, mate, so don't despair as yet;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 10, 2005 Share Posted October 10, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System I did warn you, FT, listen to Mr.Tulenos... he does not speak with forked tongue....He knows, you know.......;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 10, 2005 Share Posted October 10, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Cheers, Mr T........ cheques in the post.....:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Andy Posted October 10, 2005 Share Posted October 10, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System :welcome Footie Tipster, but just a word of advice, dont even think of starting a tricast thread in ATR, OK ? :rollin ;) :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System yes and no Yes if you was betting on something that is taken out of your controle then I would agree (betting on RED BLACK) But betting on Football should be a little different as you get to pick the bet and can put form/and other points into the equation.. Valid points though lads and taken on board, like I said this isn't for real just a trial Hello anyway :) Anyway uv jinxed it now and it's failed to lose lol ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Bet 1 Hungary v Croatia. Croatia have already won the group and that leaves just Hungary and Sweden to fight out for 2nd place. Hungary will be up for this and beat a team with nothing to play for BET 1 Hungary to beat Croatia 11/8 Bet365 (10/11 @ StanJames) £50 Football-Tipper :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System PS The above match is U21 KO 7:30pm Tuesday 11th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Martingale system is not one that i would ever consider using to be honest. too risky for my liking :eyes but good luck mate:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Martingdale system will kill you. Even betting on even money singles, you'll hit a run of 5 defeats quite often. It's only used by the worst mug punters, bookies love it. Stick to singles mate, even stakes is the way to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Hi there FT - good to have a Grimsby fan aboard, I'm sure we can have some banter as the season wears on (assuming we both stay there or thereabouts :hope). I would heed the advice you have been given - these guys are astute punters. Try researching different staking strategies based around single (or double) betting and see how profitable it can be in the medium to long term given a good system (you do seem pretty confident that you have an edge over the bookies :eek). GL anyway, glad you're using paper money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Sorry - just want to add my voice to those who think that Martingale will eventually ruin you if you follow it!!! It CANNOT work. Even if you are successful in ONE trial, you will still lose in the long run with it. The nature of Martingale is that you will win lots of (comparatively) small bets, but when you lose, you lose the lot!!!!! Your argument is that you will win because it's not a random event, but there is form etc to consider. So if that is the case, why use Martingale? You are I presume saying you could win to level stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Bet 1 Hungary v Croatia. Croatia have already won the group and that leaves just Hungary and Sweden to fight out for 2nd place. Hungary will be up for this and beat a team with nothing to play for BET 1 Hungary to beat Croatia 11/8 Bet365 (10/11 @ StanJames) £50 Football-Tipper :loon And if anyone would like to thank me for that Grrreat value tip on Hungary who are now 10/11 with Bet365 feel free lol Seriously though lads thanks for the advice its all been noted. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Huh, B365 running for cover - only 8/11 on the home win here now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Well FTs cash is down lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System And its a 5:30 KO not 7:30 which I put earlier :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System 4/6 now at sportingodds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Bet365 now go 1/2 :loon Sportingodds 2/5:unsure Best Price was StanJames 4/6 but they have just took the match off the market.. Hope you got some of the 11/8 :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System The match has been taken off by most books - some 1.50 available on exchanges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Great pick Football-Tipper :clap :clap :clap Martingale still can't work, but nonetheless, this is a great pick!!! Any ideas why the movement so drastically? Is it on Team news or other factors? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Croatia have already finished top so its between Hungary and Sweden for the 2nd place, Both are on 18 pts and both KO same time Hungary @ home v a team (Croatia) who have already qualified..Now would you want to risk any players in a match like this? Hungary should have been odds on from the start but no value now at 2/5 Not even sure what price Bet365 and Stanjames will come out with as the have suspended betting on the match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System The match will almost sure never return on board again, Football-Tipper. The fact it has been taken off is more due to the fact there have been some strange betting pattern spotted than the weight of money. Agree there was good value @ the initial price, but 1/2? Gimme a break. Have seen such nailed on, "fixed" matches go down in flames - anyone remembers Russia U21 in the last match of the last qualification - available on BF only in the end and backed down to nonsense levels (so called sure thing or fix), only to draw (if I remember well). An interesting read is on the betting history in this match - while Hungary has been backed down to about 1.5 (and rising now to 1.55), Croatia +1/2 has ALSO been backed once the price got up a bit. Interesting;) Still wishing you best of luck, mate.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Also BET365 take great pride in being one of the 1st bookies to publish odds on games like this..Great for them and us as every now and again they drop a clanger like this one it's just a case of being in the right place at the right time b4 the cash floods in and they realise there mistake... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System I would have said 8/11 on Hungary was about right for this match Like I said 2/5 offers no value whatsoever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Croatia take a 1-0 lead :( How come I get that feeling this thread is jinxed now :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Oooo 1-1 now :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System With Sweden 2-0 down Hungary only req' a draw now :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Football-Tipper Posted October 11, 2005 Author Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: The Martingale Football System Hungary 2-1 get in :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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