3M Open

[tonythepaint]

YTD -£39.60

New strategy 

Doing 5 players ew.

Very small stakes at the moment.

T. Finau 11/1 BV

A.Bhatia 20/1 WH

K.Mitchell 33/1 B365

D.Ghim 70/1 WH

K.Yu 80/1 WH 

All 8 places apart from Finau 5 places 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, tonythepaint said:

YTD -£39.60

New strategy 

Doing 5 players ew.

Very small stakes at the moment.

T. Finau 11/1 BV

A.Bhatia 20/1 WH

K.Mitchell 33/1 B365

D.Ghim 70/1 WH

K.Yu 80/1 WH 

All 8 places apart from Finau 5 places 

An observation - check the prices of your selections after each round and note them, do this for each tournament that you back in and then review the results. i think you will be very surprised at the difference, the actual result of the tournament is irrelevant once you have spent your money so its not about whether you were right or wrong about the player its more about whether you were right or wrong about the prices you took.

example in the Open i had 3 selections i did not back anything pre-tournament after the first round i backed cantlay (33/1 pre tourny) at 100/1 after the second round he was down to 22/1 therefore i beat the price significantly even though he ended up getting no where near. hope you can understand my explanation.

[tonythepaint]

3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

An observation - check the prices of your selections after each round and note them, do this for each tournament that you back in and then review the results. i think you will be very surprised at the difference, the actual result of the tournament is irrelevant once you have spent your money so its not about whether you were right or wrong about the player its more about whether you were right or wrong about the prices you took.

example in the Open i had 3 selections i did not back anything pre-tournament after the first round i backed cantlay (33/1 pre tourny) at 100/1 after the second round he was down to 22/1 therefore i beat the price significantly even though he ended up getting no where near. hope you can understand my explanation.

I'll definitely do that. It will be a good indication if I'm on the right track with my selections.

Cheers Tony

[MinellaWorksop]

Best of luck Tony. Two I like this week, both win only with Bet365 are:

Akshay Bhatia 25/1 (price includes 25% boost)

Luke Clanton 28/1

 

[tonythepaint]

30 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

An observation - check the prices of your selections after each round and note them, do this for each tournament that you back in and then review the results. i think you will be very surprised at the difference, the actual result of the tournament is irrelevant once you have spent your money so its not about whether you were right or wrong about the player its more about whether you were right or wrong about the prices you took.

example in the Open i had 3 selections i did not back anything pre-tournament after the first round i backed cantlay (33/1 pre tourny) at 100/1 after the second round he was down to 22/1 therefore i beat the price significantly even though he ended up getting no where near. hope you can understand my explanation.

Would it be better all round just to wait until after the first round, check the odds. If  they had doubled, then go in with the bet.

Your just risking that your pick doesn't get off to a flyer and the odds shrink.If he does you could check them again after the second round and back him then.

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, tonythepaint said:

Would it be better all round just to wait until after the first round, check the odds. If  they had doubled, then go in with the bet.

Your just risking that your pick doesn't get off to a flyer and the odds shrink.If he does you could check them again after the second round and back him then.

It is a good idea to monitor it for a while I think. It might tell you it's better to wait until after the first round, or maybe to keep some of your stake back. Sometimes the value will have gone but, at other times, you might get a better price about a top player because a more average player has shot the score of his life. Be good to understand the dynamics and see what the optimum approach would have been for those players you get a payout on. Do the more generous e/w terms remain available after the 1st round is completed?

[Torque]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

the actual result of the tournament is irrelevant once you have spent your money so its not about whether you were right or wrong about the player its more about whether you were right or wrong about the prices you took.

Spot on. Sadly of course that means you can have a great bet that loses and that's one of the hardest things to get your head around when starting out - a W or a L doesn't of itself determine a good or bad bet.

[Torque]

3 hours ago, tonythepaint said:

Would it be better all round just to wait until after the first round, check the odds. If  they had doubled, then go in with the bet.

Not a strategy I would use. If the odds have doubled that's in response to new information in the market, in this case the completion of the first round. The new price isn't necessarily any more good or bad value than the price before the tournament started.

[Zilzalian]

5 hours ago, tonythepaint said:

Would it be better all round just to wait until after the first round, check the odds. If  they had doubled, then go in with the bet.

Your just risking that your pick doesn't get off to a flyer and the odds shrink.If he does you could check them again after the second round and back him then.

Well thats the point of my suggestion really. To take notes and make observations for going forward, some like to have bets before during or both, some wait for the cut. but trust me in doing what i suggest i think you will be genuinely surprised. especially if you have a bet in most tournaments like i do and it appears you do.

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

It is a good idea to monitor it for a while I think. It might tell you it's better to wait until after the first round, or maybe to keep some of your stake back. Sometimes the value will have gone but, at other times, you might get a better price about a top player because a more average player has shot the score of his life. Be good to understand the dynamics and see what the optimum approach would have been for those players you get a payout on. Do the more generous e/w terms remain available after the 1st round is completed?

The ew places/options drop by round Harry.

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, Torque said:

Not a strategy I would use. If the odds have doubled that's in response to new information in the market, in this case the completion of the first round. The new price isn't necessarily any more good or bad value than the price before the tournament started.

Although i can't say i disagree with what you are saying, the thing that is intriguing me this season is the dominance of Scheffler the bookies are over reacting with him (terribly low through each round) and so are getting a skewed market which leaves them having to offer better prices on his opposition. personally i do wait until the end of the first round more often than not and sometimes the cut. But i do start off pre tournament with 6 selections and just track the prices by round. After the first round i can drop say a selection and bring in another one but still track the originals whilst trying to decide where the value is keeping in mind that some players can consistently shoot a low round. the other useful tool i use is the short- long tool i came up with. After the first round i keep my eye on players that more often than not putt short of the hole, i cross them off one at a time because it tells me they are more scared of losing rather than going for the win, playing safe sort of attitude or lacking confidence. That tool works quite well for when deciding who the value is if any for the final round.

[fd1972uk]

Opted for Theegala and Horschel, wins only. Was going to go Burns as well as no other tours (not bothered with LIV), but left him out 

Dad has went Horschel and Bhatia.

 

[philipwalsh19]

Staking plan: 1pt e/w on each-ways, 1pt each on top 20/30s

[tonythepaint]

23 hours ago, tonythepaint said:

YTD -£39.60

New strategy 

Doing 5 players ew.

Very small stakes at the moment.

T. Finau 11/1 BV

A.Bhatia 20/1 WH

K.Mitchell 33/1 B365

D.Ghim 70/1 WH

K.Yu 80/1 WH 

All 8 places apart from Finau 5 places 

Just had a look at the prices before play starts.

Mitchell 40/1

Ghim 66/1

Yu 70/1

Just using the odds from the bookies I used.

Same place terms.

[fd1972uk]

Hirschel bloody withdrew

[tonythepaint]

Had an additional bet on Mitchell,Bhatia,Yu and Ghim at larger odds. All players are within 7 shots so not out of it yet.