Racing chat -weds 24th July

[richard-westwood]

820 Leicester

Seargant mayer 267 0.86 13/2 4p

High violet. 264 0.79 13/2

Kirumu. 254 0.34 

Mullins beach 248 1.04 

Seargant mayer looks to be the value bet with combo of form and value 1pt Ew 13/2 4 places 

Edited Tuesday at 04:00 PM by richard-westwood

[yossa6133]

Gracious Leader 2:20 Lingfield (5/2 Bet365). Tailed off when I backed in April, will give another chance on handicap debut with his bits chopped off and a lowly mark of 64.

 

1pt win 5/2

 

P?L: +15pts.

 

Well backed into odds on and does it easily enough. Will record as 2/1 as the 5/2 vanished as soon as I posted.

Edited Wednesday at 01:23 PM by yossa6133

[richard-westwood]

Catt 410 

My Honey b. 294   4/1 0.53 

Obee jo 289 8/1 0.91 

Without delay. 279 9/1 1.01 

Obee jo looks the Ew value with 4 places ....1 PT Ew 

 

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Lingfield 2.50

MARMALADE LADY

[richard-westwood]

I wanted to give the form module as much testing before the weekend so I can be confident about going live with profits and loss etc so I wanted to pick an epicly hard race today 

550 naas 20 runners 

Gordon Bennet  338 7/2 0.56 

Transcendental. 333 13/2 0.74 

Tawwazon. 329. 22/1 2.01 

Rathbanchurch. 327 10/1 1.24 

Very interesting result .....it's picked two fancies horses first and second rated but two much bigger prices for the value bets ....especially flagging tawwazon as very good value indeed .....I'll try Ew bets with 6 places on taw and rath ....it's a good test ....will watch this one play out with interest 😀

 

[harry_rag]

24 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

550 naas 20 runners 

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	Prisoner's Dilemma	23	113.83	131.80
2	Transcendental (FR)	7.5	109.15	28.46
3	Never Shout Never (IRE)	13	107.36	39.66
4	Blanc De Noir (IRE)	17	107.24	51.03
5	Gaenari (IRE)	15	107.12	44.26
6	Collective Power (IRE)	26	106.58	70.86
7	Rathbranchurch (IRE)	15	105.45	33.88
8	Tawaazon (IRE)	26	105.06	54.57
9	Gordon Bennett (IRE)	4.5	105.03	9.37
10	Winemaker (FR)	34	104.50	63.45
11	Polar Bear (IRE)	19	104.14	32.59
12	Universally (IRE)	12	96.35
13	Glamorously (IRE)	13	94.63
14	Von Krolock (IRE)	23	94.21
15	Speedwood (FR)	15	93.89
16	Abiding Star (IRE)	21	93.81
17	Smart Impression (IRE)	67	91.55
18	Nikki Swango (IRE)	13	91.15
19	Punk Poet (IRE)	67	86.82
20	Mint Man	23	82.13

Well I can't pass up a top rated horse with such a strong "best value" rating! Taken the 22s to 5 places , shortening with a few firms.

[richard-westwood]

26 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	Prisoner's Dilemma	23	113.83	131.80
2	Transcendental (FR)	7.5	109.15	28.46
3	Never Shout Never (IRE)	13	107.36	39.66
4	Blanc De Noir (IRE)	17	107.24	51.03
5	Gaenari (IRE)	15	107.12	44.26
6	Collective Power (IRE)	26	106.58	70.86
7	Rathbranchurch (IRE)	15	105.45	33.88
8	Tawaazon (IRE)	26	105.06	54.57
9	Gordon Bennett (IRE)	4.5	105.03	9.37
10	Winemaker (FR)	34	104.50	63.45
11	Polar Bear (IRE)	19	104.14	32.59
12	Universally (IRE)	12	96.35
13	Glamorously (IRE)	13	94.63
14	Von Krolock (IRE)	23	94.21
15	Speedwood (FR)	15	93.89
16	Abiding Star (IRE)	21	93.81
17	Smart Impression (IRE)	67	91.55
18	Nikki Swango (IRE)	13	91.15
19	Punk Poet (IRE)	67	86.82
20	Mint Man	23	82.13

Well I can't pass up a top rated horse with such a strong "best value" rating! Taken the 22s to 5 places , shortening with a few firms.

That's a tough race to rate lol 

[Villa Chris]

Quiet day for me but that Yarmouth card tomorrow looks good . I may rate the race above to kill some time and see how it compares to both of yours .

[Villa Chris]

Transcendental 26 13/2

Universally 25 9/1 

Tawaazon 25 14/1

Gordon Bennet 24 10/3

Winemaker 24 33/1 

Rathbranchurch 22 12/1 

 

Edited Wednesday at 01:16 PM by Villa Chris

[Antonio Margarettii]

2.40 catterick - lunar force 7/1 

[richard-westwood]

18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Catt 410 

My Honey b. 294   4/1 0.53 

Obee jo 289 8/1 0.91 

Without delay. 279 9/1 1.01 

Obee jo looks the Ew value with 4 places ....1 PT Ew 

 

Non runner .....change bet to without delay 

[azzybear]

one more dream 4.10

[azzybear]

knights affair 4.40

[azzybear]

distant seas 4.45

[azzybear]

kudasheva 4.28

[LeMale]

I don't normally post on Racing Chat, not confident enough, best left to the more experienced on here and they do a good job. As mentioned on Monday's Chat, it's nice to see a race all the guys have rated that i have looked through in some depth to see if any match up, just for peace of mind really. (might stick an extra £1 on 🤣) I have been trying to get my head around Irish flat racing for the last 2-3 years in the hope that i could hopefully bring something to the Punters Lounge table, as there are not many on here who tend to delve across the Irish sea and i thought, in time, i could find some nice priced winners. Still not really confident enough to post regularly, but i did look through the 1750 at Naas, so here's my view, man v machine if you like. So at the cost of making myself look stupid and making a tit of myself, here goes. 

First one, simple, every one had it 1st or 2nd - Transcendental, but too short for me but has more than a decent chance and i like the draw better than Gordon Bennett and Never Shout Never. I considered Harry's pick, Prisoners Dilemma at a nice price and it is due to turn a corner and it could be today, but i passed. Richard and Chris both had Tawaazon high and i also liked this and could be a decent pick ew, but they all also had Rathbranchurch in there top 6/7, but i didn't fancy that drawn 2. (although some say no draw bias and some say low is better, they tend to come across to the right imo, so i like a high draw.) Wow is that the time...the race will be off soon! I will end it there and pick my 1-2-3:- 

1 - Universally (backed at 16-1) 
2 - Von Krolock - wrong trip really, better over 7f but is a horse who improved as a 4yo and has been consistent this year. (backed at 22-1 ) 
3 - Collective Power - mark is still a bit high and is a little inconsistent, but if having a good day, ew chances. (backed at 28-1, but then changed to above) 

[richard-westwood]

19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Catt 410 

My Honey b. 294   4/1 0.53 

Obee jo 289 8/1 0.91 

Without delay. 279 9/1 1.01 

Obee jo looks the Ew value with 4 places ....1 PT Ew 

 

 

59 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Non runner .....change bet to without delay 

Placed 

[azzybear]

pearls and rubbies 6.20 ew

[richard-westwood]

5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I wanted to give the form module as much testing before the weekend so I can be confident about going live with profits and loss etc so I wanted to pick an epicly hard race today 

550 naas 20 runners 

Gordon Bennet  338 7/2 0.56 

Transcendental. 333 13/2 0.74 

Tawwazon. 329. 22/1 2.01 

Rathbanchurch. 327 10/1 1.24 

Very interesting result .....it's picked two fancies horses first and second rated but two much bigger prices for the value bets ....especially flagging tawwazon as very good value indeed .....I'll try Ew bets with 6 places on taw and rath ....it's a good test ....will watch this one play out with interest 😀

 

Christ ...even with this stay away from Irish richee🤣

[Villa Chris]

3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Transcendental 26 13/2

Universally 25 9/1 

Tawaazon 25 14/1

Gordon Bennet 24 10/3

Winemaker 24 33/1 

Rathbranchurch 22 12/1 

 

Second rated won at 12/1. Gordon Bennett was the only other to run well 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, LeMale said:

I don't normally post on Racing Chat, not confident enough, best left to the more experienced on here and they do a good job. As mentioned on Monday's Chat, it's nice to see a race all the guys have rated that i have looked through in some depth to see if any match up, just for peace of mind really. (might stick an extra £1 on 🤣) I have been trying to get my head around Irish flat racing for the last 2-3 years in the hope that i could hopefully bring something to the Punters Lounge table, as there are not many on here who tend to delve across the Irish sea and i thought, in time, i could find some nice priced winners. Still not really confident enough to post regularly, but i did look through the 1750 at Naas, so here's my view, man v machine if you like. So at the cost of making myself look stupid and making a tit of myself, here goes. 

First one, simple, every one had it 1st or 2nd - Transcendental, but too short for me but has more than a decent chance and i like the draw better than Gordon Bennett and Never Shout Never. I considered Harry's pick, Prisoners Dilemma at a nice price and it is due to turn a corner and it could be today, but i passed. Richard and Chris both had Tawaazon high and i also liked this and could be a decent pick ew, but they all also had Rathbranchurch in there top 6/7, but i didn't fancy that drawn 2. (although some say no draw bias and some say low is better, they tend to come across to the right imo, so i like a high draw.) Wow is that the time...the race will be off soon! I will end it there and pick my 1-2-3:- 

1 - Universally (backed at 16-1) 
2 - Von Krolock - wrong trip really, better over 7f but is a horse who improved as a 4yo and has been consistent this year. (backed at 22-1 ) 
3 - Collective Power - mark is still a bit high and is a little inconsistent, but if having a good day, ew chances. (backed at 28-1, but then changed to above) 

I see you had the result but thats not what interests me here techno kid. listen! we all make predictions and we can all get winners but at the same time we can all look like fools or stupid when we get no where near. I would suggest you forget the confidence or lack thereof thing and just post what you think just like you did today, i for one will always look at what you post because i have seen enough on here including your naps and your involvement with the lucky15 challenges that makes me think you are very knowledgeable and so are an asset to my daily thinking processes i do stick to my own selections as a rule but where yours Richards or micheals match mine i am inclined to increase my bet more often than not. Anyway your crap, you only got the winner and the 5th bit more effort in future please because i like forecasts. 😂😂😂💥🤣

[LeMale]

2 hours ago, LeMale said:

I don't normally post on Racing Chat, not confident enough, best left to the more experienced on here and they do a good job. As mentioned on Monday's Chat, it's nice to see a race all the guys have rated that i have looked through in some depth to see if any match up, just for peace of mind really. (might stick an extra £1 on 🤣) I have been trying to get my head around Irish flat racing for the last 2-3 years in the hope that i could hopefully bring something to the Punters Lounge table, as there are not many on here who tend to delve across the Irish sea and i thought, in time, i could find some nice priced winners. Still not really confident enough to post regularly, but i did look through the 1750 at Naas, so here's my view, man v machine if you like. So at the cost of making myself look stupid and making a tit of myself, here goes. 

First one, simple, every one had it 1st or 2nd - Transcendental, but too short for me but has more than a decent chance and i like the draw better than Gordon Bennett and Never Shout Never. I considered Harry's pick, Prisoners Dilemma at a nice price and it is due to turn a corner and it could be today, but i passed. Richard and Chris both had Tawaazon high and i also liked this and could be a decent pick ew, but they all also had Rathbranchurch in there top 6/7, but i didn't fancy that drawn 2. (although some say no draw bias and some say low is better, they tend to come across to the right imo, so i like a high draw.) Wow is that the time...the race will be off soon! I will end it there and pick my 1-2-3:- 

1 - Universally (backed at 16-1) 
2 - Von Krolock - wrong trip really, better over 7f but is a horse who improved as a 4yo and has been consistent this year. (backed at 22-1 ) 
3 - Collective Power - mark is still a bit high and is a little inconsistent, but if having a good day, ew chances. (backed at 28-1, but then changed to above) 

Well, i'm pleased with that and @Villa Chris had that as 2nd rated as well. Collective Power placed as well and it's funny that after i wrote about Von Krolock, all i heard was @Zilzalian saying "you've just explained why not to bet on it...so why have you bet on it!!!" Disappointed i didn't put in a 4th, because it would have been Mint Man who came 2nd, but i couldn't after what i said about the draw, which as it turned out didn't matter as much as i thought. 

[Villa Chris]

22 minutes ago, LeMale said:

Well, i'm pleased with that and @Villa Chris had that as 2nd rated as well. Collective Power placed as well and it's funny that after i wrote about Von Krolock, all i heard was @Zilzalian saying "you've just explained why not to bet on it...so why have you bet on it!!!" Disappointed i didn't put in a 4th, because it would have been Mint Man who came 2nd, but i couldn't after what i said about the draw, which as it turned out didn't matter as much as i thought. 

I rarely look at the draw 

[LeMale]

25 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I see you had the result but thats not what interests me here techno kid. listen! we all make predictions and we can all get winners but at the same time we can all look like fools or stupid when we get no where near. I would suggest you forget the confidence or lack thereof thing and just post what you think just like you did today, i for one will always look at what you post because i have seen enough on here including your naps and your involvement with the lucky15 challenges that makes me think you are very knowledgeable and so are an asset to my daily thinking processes i do stick to my own selections as a rule but where yours Richards or micheals match mine i am inclined to increase my bet more often than not. Anyway your crap, you only got the winner and the 5th bit more effort in future please because i like forecasts. 😂😂😂💥🤣

Cheers Zil, high praise from you  bottom line's more like it. 🤣 

[Zilzalian]

21 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I rarely look at the draw 

Yes i fully agree, farting about with the draw puts you off far more winners than eejit jockeys that do eejit things.

i remember a jockey called Philip Robinson who could win from any draw anywhere even Chester. 

Edited Wednesday at 06:22 PM by Zilzalian
omission

[richard-westwood]

On 7/23/2024 at 5:00 PM, richard-westwood said:

820 Leicester

Seargant mayer 267 0.86 13/2 4p

High violet. 264 0.79 13/2

Kirumu. 254 0.34 

Mullins beach 248 1.04 

Seargant mayer looks to be the value bet with combo of form and value 1pt Ew 13/2 4 places 

High violet and seargant Mayer and kirumu all  placed 

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

I rarely look at the draw 

We are all different, I find that the draw is the most influential factor but usually because the "good" draws are overbet

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, LeMale said:

Well, i'm pleased with that and @Villa Chris had that as 2nd rated as well. Collective Power placed as well and it's funny that after i wrote about Von Krolock, all i heard was @Zilzalian saying "you've just explained why not to bet on it...so why have you bet on it!!!" Disappointed i didn't put in a 4th, because it would have been Mint Man who came 2nd, but i couldn't after what i said about the draw, which as it turned out didn't matter as much as i thought. 

You should comment on here more often, it's good to see your reasons for your picks

[LeMale]

17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Christ ...even with this stay away from Irish richee🤣

I hope you don't Richard. I've heard you say before that you don't like Irish racing, but i hope you still rate the odd race. I will stick with what i said yesterday about the draw, which means your top rated should be upgraded for running well, but on the wrong side of the track along with your 4th. Transcendental was given an awful ride, claimer went off way too fast (if i was looking at the right horse, watched on tiny screen and couldn't hear commentry) and no man or computer can allow for that or the fact that i believe the going changed from morning to afternoon. Tawaazon, which i believe was the one you bet on, i also thought had a decent ew chance on last years form, even if still carrying a bit too much weight imo. (went from 65 up to 92, but is now on 81) But it found form (immedietly) after switching stables, but has not done much since another stable switch. So your ratings were not as bad as you think imo and i hope you carry on doing a few Irish races, you really can find some nice priced winners. Good luck with your new system anyway. 

[richard-westwood]

17 minutes ago, LeMale said:

I hope you don't Richard. I've heard you say before that you don't like Irish racing, but i hope you still rate the odd race. I will stick with what i said yesterday about the draw, which means your top rated should be upgraded for running well, but on the wrong side of the track along with your 4th. Transcendental was given an awful ride, claimer went off way too fast (if i was looking at the right horse, watched on tiny screen and couldn't hear commentry) and no man or computer can allow for that or the fact that i believe the going changed from morning to afternoon. Tawaazon, which i believe was the one you bet on, i also thought had a decent ew chance on last years form, even if still carrying a bit too much weight imo. (went from 65 up to 92, but is now on 81) But it found form (immedietly) after switching stables, but has not done much since another stable switch. So your ratings were not as bad as you think imo and i hope you carry on doing a few Irish races, you really can find some nice priced winners. Good luck with your new system anyway. 

I just don't understand it .....they can have huge ratings and come in ...10th ....maybe I am missing a vital course or draw stat ...it's very possible .....if you have any draw stats for the courses it would be helpful ???....and I'll give it another go when a race pops up incorparating the data ?