Racing chat-sunday 22nd July

[richard-westwood]

427 red 

One of our own 210 0.62 7/1

Garifullina  206 0.45 5/1 

Attolblairboy   201 1.55 20/1 

Dandy spirit. 197 0.93 12/1 

Just a bit of rating testing today ....top rated isn't bad at 7/1 but overall the value lies Ew  with attol and dandy so I'll try 1pt Ew both .....

[DanV89]

I fancied So Grateful in that race Richard, where did he come out on your ratings?

4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

427 red 

One of our own 210 0.62 7/1

Garifullina  206 0.45 5/1 

Attolblairboy   201 1.55 20/1 

Dandy spirit. 197 0.93 12/1 

Just a bit of rating testing today ....top rated isn't bad at 7/1 but overall the value lies Ew  with attol and dandy so I'll try 1pt Ew both .....

 

[ivans82]

Each way double in the two listed races at La Teste Du Buch   ,   Imparable and Love Rush .

[richard-westwood]

43 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

I fancied So Grateful in that race Richard, where did he come out on your ratings?

 

It's coming in at 186 ....so quite a bit behind the others ?......I've rated all the Irish races and can't find any value there at all ..either..bookies seem to have it all sewn up so no interest  there ....just this one race today 

But yours is on a good mark 

Edited July 21 by richard-westwood

[black rabbit]

Whisper A Prayer                                           3 45 Curr                     1/40th of a pt ew           20/1

[azzybear]

burning man 11.55 scotsville

[azzybear]

cowarofthecounty 2.10

[harry_rag]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Just a bit of rating testing today ....top rated isn't bad at 7/1 but overall the value lies Ew  with attol and dandy so I'll try 1pt Ew both .....

Same here. Done Boy & Star as the top 2 on the value metric. (4 places). 

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	Phoenix Star	17	107.16	110.06
2	Without Flaw	5	106.97	31.50
3	Athollblair Boy	19	106.54	112.43
4	Garifullina	5	106.34	28.67
5	One Of Our Own	8.5	105.50	42.31
6	Irish Dancer	34	102.97	91.25
7	So Grateful	9	102.80	22.78
8	Dandy Spirit	15	102.74	37.21
9	Back Tomorrow	23	99.73
10	Hoof It Hoof It	9.5	99.65
11	Gunnerside	34	97.22
12	Birdie Bowers	31	97.06
13	Motawaazy	19	92.74
14	Urban Dandy	17	91.73
15	Miss Rainbow	41	80.84

 More hurry, less speed, repent at leisure etc. Ratings are fine but the value numbers are suspect. Copy and paste error with the new formula. Will correct it and see how good or bad the bet decisions look!

Edited Sunday at 12:48 PM by harry_rag
Effed up!

[harry_rag]

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	California Dreamer	10	113.55	113.55
2	Babouche	2.625	113.15	28.93
3	Cowardofthecounty	3.75	105.16	16.20
4	Celtic Chieftain	26	103.44	74.84
5	Camille Pissarro	5.5	102.39	11.03
6	Sir Yoshi	41	101.02	35.03
7	Regal Gem	26	99.87
8	Treasure Isle	34	96.76
9	No Return	26	93.26
10	Barton Key	151	71.41

2:10 Curragh, rated by Zil in the Speed Ratings thread. Gone win on California Dreamer and e/w on Celtic Chieftain, Zil's top rated. That's it for today (barring correcting the other race).

[harry_rag]

44 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

 More hurry, less speed, repent at leisure etc. Ratings are fine but the value numbers are suspect. Copy and paste error with the new formula. Will correct it and see how good or bad the bet decisions look!

I'm getting the same results so it's as you were! I need to bring the template up to date as I've been tinkering race by race and copying the updates across which has lead to the confusion. I think I'll save that for another day. 

[Villa Chris]

Quiet day really maybe should leave it alone as rated one race and not much wriggle room regarding odds but then I’ve just done the 3.25 at Stratford which is only a 7 horse race but offers some good prices. 
 

Matterhorn 25  13/8 ( my odds 4/1) 

In This World 23 7/4 (my odds 5/1)

Sir TiVo 11/1 23 11/1 ( my odds 5/1)

Cracking Destiny 23 18/1 ( my odds 5/1) 

Tight affair and two hot favourites but I think it’s worth taking them on with the odds available so point win on both Sir TiVo and Cracking Destiny 

[Villa Chris]

I’ll put the other up incase there’s a drift 

3.35 Newton Abbot

Mr Yeats 27 9/2 ( my odds 6/1)

Halifax 26 9/2 ( my odds 13/2)

Wavering Down 25 11/2 ( my odds 13/2)

All 3 are strong in the betting so a drift looks unlikely so no bet as it stands 

[Villa Chris]

58 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Quiet day really maybe should leave it alone as rated one race and not much wriggle room regarding odds but then I’ve just done the 3.25 at Stratford which is only a 7 horse race but offers some good prices. 
 

Matterhorn 25  13/8 ( my odds 4/1) 

In This World 23 7/4 (my odds 5/1)

Sir TiVo 11/1 23 11/1 ( my odds 5/1)

Cracking Destiny 23 18/1 ( my odds 5/1) 

Tight affair and two hot favourites but I think it’s worth taking them on with the odds available so point win on both Sir TiVo and Cracking Destiny 

The two young guns finish first and second with the latter two nowhere and falling 

-18

Edited Sunday at 02:45 PM by Villa Chris

[MGC]

410 n Supposedtobe 5/1

[MGC]

465 c Sidiza 7/2

[harry_rag]

7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Just a bit of rating testing today ....top rated isn't bad at 7/1 but overall the value lies Ew  with attol and dandy so I'll try 1pt Ew both .....

Hope you went 5 places! I got 4th and 5th but only a return on the former. There was only one firm going 5 places. I still need to get my head round how much of a shorter price is acceptable to take in return for the extra place.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Hope you went 5 places! I got 4th and 5th but only a return on the former. There was only one firm going 5 places. I still need to get my head round how much of a shorter price is acceptable to take in return for the extra place.

You're getting deeper and deeper into the mire of horse racing, once in there's no escape !

[Villa Chris]

Already I’m getting frustrated with the value bets 🤣 I’d probably be up backing top rated but it’s only small stakes and I’ll keep persisting until I’m confident I’m getting the odds wrong . 

[DanV89]

10 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

It's coming in at 186 ....so quite a bit behind the others ?......I've rated all the Irish races and can't find any value there at all ..either..bookies seem to have it all sewn up so no interest  there ....just this one race today 

But yours is on a good mark 

So Grateful beaten half a length into 3rd, thought I was in about a furlong out but was collared near the line. Thought jockey was weak to be fair. 

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

You're getting deeper and deeper into the mire of horse racing, once in there's no escape !

I do need to keep an eye on the “betting-life” balance so I don’t want to go too far down the rabbit (horse?) hole. I also don’t want it to detract too much from the goalscorer betting but there’s a few weeks’ grace before that gets back to full tilt.

I’m not expecting too much from a system using basic freely available RP numbers but it’s better than how I’d have approached picking out bets previously and the main purpose is improving the spreadsheet. It’s certainly better than a “garbage in/garbage out” scenario but it will be better still with decent ratings plugged into it.

I’ll try and do a race or two most days until the football ramps up then see how things stand but at least, by then, I should have the spreadsheet pretty much nailed down to be wheeled out when required.

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

I do need to keep an eye on the “betting-life” balance so I don’t want to go too far down the rabbit (horse?) hole. I also don’t want it to detract too much from the goalscorer betting but there’s a few weeks’ grace before that gets back to full tilt.

I’m not expecting too much from a system using basic freely available RP numbers but it’s better than how I’d have approached picking out bets previously and the main purpose is improving the spreadsheet. It’s certainly better than a “garbage in/garbage out” scenario but it will be better still with decent ratings plugged into it.

I’ll try and do a race or two most days until the football ramps up then see how things stand but at least, by then, I should have the spreadsheet pretty much nailed down to be wheeled out when required.

I'm really really chuffed with how it's going tbh because it's still early days .....the maths for calculating percentages and edge is as spot on as it can be ......and it's not flawless as when tackling big races the percentages can be skewed giving you inflated tissues but there's no way to mitigate that ....but value alone is no good .......I've seen plenty of 20/1 tissue available at 50/1 and it would be easy to say wow 😳....and just back blindly but it's fools gold because if the horses form gives it a 2% chance then you'll get huge losing runs so no fun...... but one half of the equation is perfect 

Now I just need to fine tune the form side of the equation .....I can see what's working and what needs changing so it's a case of taking pieces out and slotting in new pieces until I get the right formula  .....once both sides are balanced and working in perfect  harmony....I think this has the potential to be the greatest betting system I've ever had I'm convinced of it so it's definitely worth putting in the effort .....nothing worth having is ever easy .....I'm genuinely excited because I know what this is capable of if handled properly and it's right up my street as I love value hunting