Ratings Experiment for the 1000 Guineas. Sunday.

[Zilzalian]

ZILZALIAN	KR		STOPWATCH RP	SR		MCLARKE	MR		RICHARD WESTWOOD	RR		TOTALS	TR
PRETTY CRYSTAL	130		PORTA FORTUNA	116		PORTA FORTUNA	91		FALLEN ANGEL	89		PRETTY CRYSTAL	426
DANCE SEQUENCE	126		YLANG YLANG	113		YLANG YLANG	89		YLANG YLANG	86		DANCE SEQUENCE	414
PORTA FORTUNA	126		RAMATUELLE	112		REGAL JUBILEE	88		PORTA FORTUNA	83		PORTA FORTUNA	409
ROLICA	125		DARNATION	112		FALLEN ANGEL	88		DANCE SEQUENCE	80		ROLICA	405
REGAL JUBILEE	124		FALLEN ANGEL	110		SEE THE FIRE	88		CONTENT	78		REGAL JUBILEE	400
CINDERELLAS DREAM	123		SACRED ANGEL	109		SACRED ANGEL	87		CINDERELLAS DREAM	77		CINDERELLAS DREAM	396
CONTENT	123		SEE THE FIRE	109		STAR STYLE	86		SEE THE FIRE	77		CONTENT	395
FALLEN ANGEL	121		CINDERELLAS DREAM	102		DANCE SEQUENCE	84		PRETTY CRYSTAL	75		FALLEN ANGEL	382
RAMATUELLE	121		DANCE SEQUENCE	101		DARNATION	83		DARNATION	75		RAMATUELLE	380
SACRED ANGEL	120		REGAL JUBILEE	101		STAR MUSIC	81		REGAL JUBILEE	72		SACRED ANGEL	374
YLANG YLANG	118		CONTENT	96		PRETTY CRYSTAL	80		RAMATUELLE	72		YLANG YLANG	366
STAR MUSIC	117		STAR STYLE	96		RAMATUELLE	80		BRILLIANT	72		STAR MUSIC	365
TAMFANA	115		BRILLIANT	96		BRILLIANT	78		ROLICA	70		TAMFANA	359
STAR STYLE	111		STAR MUSIC	91		ROLICA	77		SACRED ANGEL	70		STAR STYLE	349
BRILLIANT	108		PRETTY CRYSTAL	90		ELMALKA	72		STAR STYLE	70		BRILLIANT	340
SEE THE FIRE	107		ROLICA	88		FINSCEAL LUCAS	72		STAR MUSIC	68		SEE THE FIRE	335
ELMALKA	106		FINSCEAL LUCAS	84		TAMFANA	70		TAMFANA	65		ELMALKA	325
DARNATION	104		ELMALKA	67		CINDERELLAS DREAM	68		ELMALKA	65		DARNATION	304
FINSCEAL LUCAS	104		TAMFANA	66		LUNAR ECLIPSE	60		FINSCEAL LUCAS	65		FINSCEAL LUCAS	295
LUNAR ECLIPSE	78		LUNAR ECLIPSE	33		CONTENT	33		LUNAR ECLIPSE	65		LUNAR ECLIPSE	209

[richard-westwood]

Surprised to see fallen angel so low as a dual group 1 winner against a group 3 dance sequence 🤔🤔.....if the ground comes up on the fast side of good its porta fortuna Ew all the way for me 🤔

[MCLARKE]

Yep, PORTA FORTUNA is in the top 3 for all of us (top for 2) and available at 20/1, what are we all missing ?

I think the ratings need to be equalised to the the same scale to get a better picture (unless @Zilzalian wants to give more weight to his own ratings !)

[Zilzalian]

I get your point but maybe leave well alone this time until we have the results then see if its significant (given that yours are experimental) and Richards is "form"

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Yep, PORTA FORTUNA is in the top 3 for all of us (top for 2) and available at 20/1, what are we all missing ?

I think the ratings need to be equalised to the the same scale to get a better picture (unless @Zilzalian wants to give more weight to his own ratings !)

Porta Fortuna ties in well with my original 2000g choice/top rated  (a non runner) it did well against the colts last season and i am wondering if that adds to its appeal.

[harry_rag]

@Zilzalian Got the data thanks, have imported into my spreadsheet and will do my thang.

[harry_rag]

#	Horse	Odds	BF	AvAv
1	PORTA FORTUNA	21	26	115.4
2	FALLEN ANGEL	4.5	4.5	113.8
3	YLANG YLANG	5	7.2	113.2
4	DANCE SEQUENCE	6	5.9	108.1
5	SACRED ANGEL	67	100	106.5
6	SEE THE FIRE	10	11.5	106.4
7	REGAL JUBILEE	34	28	106.3
8	RAMATUELLE	11	9.4	106.0
9	DARNATION	41	30	104.3
10	PRETTY CRYSTAL	15	24	103.1
11	CINDERELLAS DREAM	21	21	101.6
12	STAR STYLE	34	23	100.8
13	ROLICA	67	150	98.9
14	STAR MUSIC	67	34	98.5
15	BRILLIANT	67	85	98.3
16	FINSCEAL LUCAS	151	160	89.9
17	CONTENT	26	44	89.1
18	TAMFANA	67	85	86.9
19	ELMALKA	34	30	85.9
20	LUNAR ECLIPSE	67	160	67.0

Here's the "average average" rating, so collectively the top rated scores 115.4% of the average rating. @MCLARKE can I check your rating of 33 for Content, it's a bit of an outlier. What did it do, take a dump outside your driveway? 

[harry_rag]

#	Horse	Odds	BF	MaxAv
1	PORTA FORTUNA	21	26	122.6
2	FALLEN ANGEL	4.5	4.5	120.8
3	YLANG YLANG	5	7.2	119.5
4	RAMATUELLE	11	9.4	118.4
5	DARNATION	41	30	118.4
6	SACRED ANGEL	67	100	115.2
7	SEE THE FIRE	10	11.5	115.2
8	REGAL JUBILEE	34	28	113.2
9	PRETTY CRYSTAL	15	24	112.7
10	STAR STYLE	34	23	110.6
11	DANCE SEQUENCE	6	5.9	109.2
12	ROLICA	67	150	108.4
13	CINDERELLAS DREAM	21	21	107.8
14	CONTENT	26	44	106.6
15	STAR MUSIC	67	34	104.2
16	BRILLIANT	67	85	101.5
17	TAMFANA	67	85	99.7
18	FINSCEAL LUCAS	151	160	92.6
19	ELMALKA	34	30	92.6
20	LUNAR ECLIPSE	67	160	88.2

Ranked based on highest individual rating. Same top 3 but some movement after that.

#	Horse	Odds	BF	MinAv
1	PORTA FORTUNA	21	26	109.2
2	DANCE SEQUENCE	6	5.9	106.8
3	FALLEN ANGEL	4.5	4.5	104.9
4	YLANG YLANG	5	7.2	102.3
5	RAMATUELLE	11	9.4	97.7
6	REGAL JUBILEE	34	28	97.7
7	PRETTY CRYSTAL	15	24	95.1
8	SACRED ANGEL	67	100	95.0
9	STAR STYLE	34	23	95.0
10	BRILLIANT	67	85	93.6
11	ROLICA	67	150	93.0
12	SEE THE FIRE	10	11.5	92.8
13	STAR MUSIC	67	34	92.3
14	DARNATION	41	30	90.2
15	FINSCEAL LUCAS	151	160	88.2
16	CINDERELLAS DREAM	21	21	87.5
17	ELMALKA	34	30	70.8
18	TAMFANA	67	85	69.8
19	CONTENT	26	44	42.4
20	LUNAR ECLIPSE	67	160	34.9

And based on lowest, so just the four runners you all rate as above average. @Zilzalian Can you confirm the Stopwatch rating of 33 for Lunar Eclipse? Just wanted to check with 2 low outliers both being 33.

[harry_rag]

Sorry if you've already perused the tables but I'd made a few cock ups at the copy and paste stage so, if you want to know the correct results, look again now! 

Top rated looks a clear bet given the price compared to the other clear top 4 rated.

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

#	Horse	Odds	BF	AvAv
1	PORTA FORTUNA	21	26	115.4
2	FALLEN ANGEL	4.5	4.5	113.8
3	YLANG YLANG	5	7.2	113.2
4	DANCE SEQUENCE	6	5.9	108.1
5	SACRED ANGEL	67	100	106.5
6	SEE THE FIRE	10	11.5	106.4
7	REGAL JUBILEE	34	28	106.3
8	RAMATUELLE	11	9.4	106.0
9	DARNATION	41	30	104.3
10	PRETTY CRYSTAL	15	24	103.1
11	CINDERELLAS DREAM	21	21	101.6
12	STAR STYLE	34	23	100.8
13	ROLICA	67	150	98.9
14	STAR MUSIC	67	34	98.5
15	BRILLIANT	67	85	98.3
16	FINSCEAL LUCAS	151	160	89.9
17	CONTENT	26	44	89.1
18	TAMFANA	67	85	86.9
19	ELMALKA	34	30	85.9
20	LUNAR ECLIPSE	67	160	67.0

Here's the "average average" rating, so collectively the top rated scores 115.4% of the average rating. @MCLARKE can I check your rating of 33 for Content, it's a bit of an outlier. What did it do, take a dump outside your driveway? 

I'd rated her on her only run in GB, when she was 13th of 16.

I've rerated based on the last run in Ireland and the rating achieved in that race was 75.

[Zilzalian]

Spending £20 quid

£8.50 win   Pretty Crystal     14/1

£7.00 win   Porta Fortuna    14/1

No single   Dance Sequence  5/1

6 x 50p      Forecasts

6 x 25p      Tricasts

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

I'd rated her on her only run in GB, when she was 13th of 16.

I've rerated based on the last run in Ireland and the rating achieved in that race was 75.

So would that equate to a rating of 75 instead of 33 or something in between? I can re-run the numbers if you think it would be a more accurate assessment.

[richard-westwood]

Well I know there was heavy rain in London and I swear I just saw a report saying it was heavy but racing post is still saying good 🫣span widget

Edited May 2 by richard-westwood

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

So would that equate to a rating of 75 instead of 33 or something in between? I can re-run the numbers if you think it would be a more accurate assessment.

I use the best rating the horse has achieved so that would be 75

[Zilzalian]

Is anyone else intrigued by all this and can't wait to either be laughing or crying once the results are in? 🤣

[Zilzalian]

8 hours ago, harry_rag said:

#	Horse	Odds	BF	MaxAv
1	PORTA FORTUNA	21	26	122.6
2	FALLEN ANGEL	4.5	4.5	120.8
3	YLANG YLANG	5	7.2	119.5
4	RAMATUELLE	11	9.4	118.4
5	DARNATION	41	30	118.4
6	SACRED ANGEL	67	100	115.2
7	SEE THE FIRE	10	11.5	115.2
8	REGAL JUBILEE	34	28	113.2
9	PRETTY CRYSTAL	15	24	112.7
10	STAR STYLE	34	23	110.6
11	DANCE SEQUENCE	6	5.9	109.2
12	ROLICA	67	150	108.4
13	CINDERELLAS DREAM	21	21	107.8
14	CONTENT	26	44	106.6
15	STAR MUSIC	67	34	104.2
16	BRILLIANT	67	85	101.5
17	TAMFANA	67	85	99.7
18	FINSCEAL LUCAS	151	160	92.6
19	ELMALKA	34	30	92.6
20	LUNAR ECLIPSE	67	160	88.2

Ranked based on highest individual rating. Same top 3 but some movement after that.

#	Horse	Odds	BF	MinAv
1	PORTA FORTUNA	21	26	109.2
2	DANCE SEQUENCE	6	5.9	106.8
3	FALLEN ANGEL	4.5	4.5	104.9
4	YLANG YLANG	5	7.2	102.3
5	RAMATUELLE	11	9.4	97.7
6	REGAL JUBILEE	34	28	97.7
7	PRETTY CRYSTAL	15	24	95.1
8	SACRED ANGEL	67	100	95.0
9	STAR STYLE	34	23	95.0
10	BRILLIANT	67	85	93.6
11	ROLICA	67	150	93.0
12	SEE THE FIRE	10	11.5	92.8
13	STAR MUSIC	67	34	92.3
14	DARNATION	41	30	90.2
15	FINSCEAL LUCAS	151	160	88.2
16	CINDERELLAS DREAM	21	21	87.5
17	ELMALKA	34	30	70.8
18	TAMFANA	67	85	69.8
19	CONTENT	26	44	42.4
20	LUNAR ECLIPSE	67	160	34.9

And based on lowest, so just the four runners you all rate as above average. @Zilzalian Can you confirm the Stopwatch rating of 33 for Lunar Eclipse? Just wanted to check with 2 low outliers both being 33.

Sorry Harry just noticed this.  Stopwatch  for Lunar Eclipse is 21 based off its only run if i was rating this it would be followed by a + ie 21+

[Zilzalian]

On 5/2/2024 at 4:11 PM, Zilzalian said:

Spending £20 quid

£8.50 win   Pretty Crystal     14/1

£7.00 win   Porta Fortuna    14/1

No single   Dance Sequence  5/1

6 x 50p      Forecasts

6 x 25p      Tricasts

Additional to going with my top 3 I am going to try to incorporate Rolica (4th) into my bets given its price and it's potential to improve having only raced twice.

[calva decoy]

On 5/2/2024 at 9:24 PM, Zilzalian said:

Is anyone else intrigued by all this and can't wait to either be laughing or crying once the results are in? 🤣

😆 It all looks like a load of gobble de gook to me , I'll stick to the tried & tested method 🎯 , joking aside , good luck , whatever gives you an angle & edge 👍

[richard-westwood]

I really like this angle ....it did well today all things considered and regardless of tomorrow's result it might be good to do this again on the odd big race throughout the season .....it's certainly generated a lot of thought 

[harry_rag]

28 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

gobble de gook

Is he the Dutch equivalent of Frankie Detorri?

(Autocorrect changed that to Frankie Detroit which would be a great name for a soul singer.)

I’ve gone with Porta Fortuna 22/1 and Sacred Angel 50/1 as my each way tilts at this one.

[Zilzalian]

35 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I really like this angle ....it did well today all things considered and regardless of tomorrow's result it might be good to do this again on the odd big race throughout the season .....it's certainly generated a lot of thought 

Its been quite a good exercise in my opinion, Its created discussion, interest and a reasoned debate on the merits and combinations of different ideas and system, it certainly has done no harm. And it has made Raggy a few quid i think.

Edited May 4 by Zilzalian

[Zilzalian]

8 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Additional to going with my top 3 I am going to try to incorporate Rolica (4th) into my bets given its price and it's potential to improve having only raced twice.

Well the free £20 bet i got I decided to put £10 ew 4 places at 66/1on Rolica plus the 25% boost so best part of a bag of sand back if it wins but that's the biggest problem, It Winning. 😂😁

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Well the free £20 bet i got I decided to put £10 ew 4 places at 66/1on Rolica plus the 25% boost so best part of a bag of sand back if it wins but that's the biggest problem, It Winning. 😂😁

Racings a funny old game ....I remember a few years ago I was convinced blue bunting was gonna win the guineas even though hadn't done a lot form figure wise but I'd watched I think it was a Doncaster run she ran close to the course standard on only the second ever run even though down the field  and backed it tenner Ew 66/1 the night before .....everyone was going are you mad ...idiot .....then on the day I watched as blue led start to finish ..i think Frankie was on it ???.....they never had a chance ....so anything can happen even in the guineas 🫣🫣

Edited May 5 by richard-westwood

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Racings a funny old game ....I remember a few years ago I was convinced blue bunting was gonna win the guineas even though hadn't done a lot form figure wise but I'd watched I think it was a Doncaster run she ran close to the course standard on only the second ever run even though down the field  and backed it tenner Ew 66/1 the night before .....everyone was going are you mad ...idiot .....then on the day I watched as blue led start to finish ..i think Frankie was on it ???.....they never had a chance ....so anything can happen even in the guineas 🫣🫣

i had £500.00 ew on a Cecil horse 25/1 in a handicap at R Ascot i was also convinced it would win but alas it got in so much trouble Quealy ended up giving up. yep its a funny old game. had a 1000 on a Obrien/moore horse in a 6 horse race it was the only race it lost that year (he got boxed in failed to get up by a sh) funny old game indeedy. 😂

[MCLARKE]

I've had my £10 free bet with BETMGM on PORTA FORTUNA

[Zilzalian]

32 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I've had my £10 free bet with BETMGM on PORTA FORTUNA

I think that (porta) is the bet to be honest i just thought "free" so win lose or draw might as well go with the biggest price 4 places and it is 4th on my list.

[richard-westwood]

On 4/29/2024 at 10:37 AM, richard-westwood said:

1000 guineas

Fallen angel.  8.9 11/4 

Ylang ylang 8.6 7/2 

Porta fortuna.  8.3 25/1 

Kitty rose.  8.1 33/1 

A bit more straightforward this one ......top 2 in betting look strong and both have won at Newmarket ....porta fortuna looks an interesting horse were she to run and the ground came up on the quick side ....was last seen in breeders cup juvenile where she finished 2nd ....that's classy form but has drifted of late so that may indicate will drop out but could be the value bet if on the quick side ...the quicker the more it would suit...has also won at Newmarket  ....

Kitty rose beat content who in turn was behind porta fortuna in the above breeders cup juvenile ....so collateral lines put this one on par with porta fortuna .....so overall top two look strong with Ew value in porta fortuna and kitty rose should they run and ground is on quick side 😁

Well ...what a fantastic run by porta fortuna ....was just pipped by a no hoper .....got a fiver Ew at 25/1 and another fiver Ew at 20/1 ....so about +35.00 ..?....makes it about +52.00 for the guineas meeting .....I'm just really happy with the good runs and really enjoyed the joint ratings 🤠 

[harry_rag]

Another winner that came from off the radar but another nice place at a decent price. I'll do a bit of analysis in the week but worth doing this again I think.

[calva decoy]

Did anyone actually back the winner ? 

Thought Menusiers ran well finishing 4th but would have been closer if ground was softer .

[fd1972uk]

Was tempted with the winner,  remember it winning recently, and was going to use my inplay bet on it, but saw its start, lol. Ended up with 2nd place, but no ew bet, also had fallen angel.