The Masters 11th April

[Johnrobertson]

Xander caught my eye here, he has been in the top five in 32% of starts since the beginning of 2022 so solid each-way chance and in 2021 he came third here. His form this year has been impressive too, almost won at Sawgrass.

Xander Schauffele 16/1 8 places hills

 

[MinellaWorksop]

@Fader will you be doing the superb competitions for the Golfing Majors again like last year?

[harry_rag]

#	Name	FP	Odds	Rating
1	English	39	201	188
2	McCarthy	38	126	120
3	Henley	32	81	111
4	Woo Kim	34	91	107
5	Scott	36	101	103
6	Theegala	29	51	102
7	Conners	33	81	100
8	De Chambeau	28	41	99
9	Bhatia	37	101	98
10	Reed	34	81	97
11	Im	38	101	95
12	Scheffler	11	5	94
13	Schauffele	20	17	93
14	Thomas	29	41	92
15	McIlroy	18	12	92
16	Woo Lee	35	81	90
17	Niemann	27	29	90
18	Matsuyama	23	21	90
19	Spieth	24	23	89
20	Young	31	51	88
21	Aberg	28	29	87
22	Clark	28	29	87
23	Rahm	21	14	87

My ratings, to be treated with extreme caution. If anything more an indicator that the fixed odds price might be value. FP is the estimated finishing position (sell price) on the spreads. Maybe of interest is you fancy a player or see one tipped and they're higher up the table.

[fd1972uk]

Scheffler for me is the one to beat, his skinny odds make it hard but mgm are doing 100% profit so will probably opt for him, helped that ilI won a few quid on their free spins too, so makes it a nothing bet.

Like JR I do also fancy XS, so will opt for him too.

Always fancied Morikawa but think he's strayed way off where I thought he'd be. Same with Speith.

Wyndham Clark is playing well, but not sure if the step up will be too much.

I'm finding it hard to judge LIV players as the money makes it hard to take their form seriously.   With that said probably Rahm and Koepka are likely lads for me.

Will do a couple of 1st round leaders and try a couple of lucky dips too from Ladbrokes.

Good luck all, will get final selections up later.

 

 

[tonythepaint]

Small bet for a bit of fun.

Chris Kirk £1ew  (200/1) BV 5 places 

Chris Kirk first round leader £1 (100/1 including 25% bet boost) B365

[harry_rag]

I've backed all of the top 10 in my ratings above on the exchange to small stakes, see how it plays out on a round by round basis. Small stakes but would cop around £100 if one of them won.

Henley e/w FRL at 50/1 (6 places) - gets me a fiver matched freebie

De Chambeau e/w outright at 33/1 (8 places) - using the freebie

Hisatune e/w top debutant at 40/1 (4 places) - saw a favourable mention and a bit of a stand out price.

[MinellaWorksop]

Gone with @Johnrobertson and followed him in with Xander Schauffele.

Also gone with @fd1972uk and done the 100% profit boost offer on Scottie Scheffler.

And done the Bet365 25% boost offer on Top Amateur market and gone with outsider Jasper Stubbs at 13/2 (price before boost added). I do think the market has the right favourite with Christo Lamprecht in that competition and he will be the one to beat having made the cut at The Open last year and being World Amateur Golf Ranking (WAGR) ranked 1. I don't think Stubbs should be the outsider of the pack though hence why I have favoured him with a bit of juice in his Price.

 

Best of luck everyone. Swing easy, Swing well.

[philipwalsh19]

Here's are my data-driven value picks for The Masters.

Link removed - effectively spam. @philipwalsh19 feel free to share some or all of your thoughts with us in a post on here but (unless you've sought and obtained permission in which case I apologise) I can't allow a post with no content beyond a link to a third party site.

Edited April 10 by harry_rag
Faint whiff of spam

[fd1972uk]

Okay quite a few I've done various bets, wins only mind you, none of that ew nonsense, lol.

Firstly Dad has went Clark, Fitzpatrick, Young and McCarthy.

I tried lucky dips, so these are just random.

Taylor Moore, lol  250s, I'm at 75/1, lol

Olazabal , lol, lol, lol, seriously, 3000/1, I have 75/1 - what's the chances of pulling out the last on the betting platforms, actually probably bloody high knowing these betting sites.

Rickie Fowler, not the worst, but again 100/1, mines 75/1

Sergio Garcia, 90/1, mines 75/1

Now for serious bets.

1st round leaders

Niemann 30s

Cantlay 33s

Wins on Scheffler 8s

Schauffele 14s 

Koepka 14s, pay out early if leading at 3rd round - what I never checked isnif he's shared lead, hmmmm?

Clark boosted on b365 (25%)

I haven't done it, but even though I don't believe he'll do it, had in in thoughts over last couple of years for Morikawa, so will probably do a small wager on him.

 

Good luck all.

 

 

 

[harry_rag]

I thought I'd shove this over into the golf thread as a worthwhile take rather than leave it just in a thread about our collective Oddschecker related woes!

[APitt1988]

Gone with; 

 

Xander Schauffele @ 14/1

Hideki Matsuyama @ 16/1

Wyndham Clark @ 30/1

Bryson Dechambeau @33/1

Si Woo Kim @ 60/1

[harry_rag]

I’m reliably informed that “the last 12 winners of the masters have gained 18 shots tee to Green in the 4 events they have played before the masters.” This is the list of the contenders.

[waggy]

This is the year for Rory McIlroy to win the Masters (at last). Just the one bet on Rory at 11/1. 

 

[MinellaWorksop]

DeChambeau out of the blocks fast setting a good score that I think will be tough to beat for First round leader.

[harry_rag]

On 4/10/2024 at 3:40 PM, harry_rag said:

Henley e/w FRL at 50/1 (6 places) - gets me a fiver matched freebie

De Chambeau e/w outright at 33/1 (8 places) - using the freebie

Might’ve got that the wrong way round!

[MinellaWorksop]

12 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Might’ve got that the wrong way round!

Sod's law mate. Saying that, although it isn't won after one round, DeChambeau has put himself in an excellent position for the outright win.

[fd1972uk]

Haven't done Morikawa, he's doing well.

 

Probably not bother now, but would be funny if he won after going on about him for past couple of years.

[MinellaWorksop]

9 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Haven't done Morikawa, he's doing well.

 

Probably not bother now, but would be funny if he won after going on about him for past couple of years.

I did think of that when I saw him lurking on the leaderboard. I wouldn't be too hard on yourself though pal. If you look at his recent form he has shown very little at all this calendar year.

[MinellaWorksop]

On 4/8/2024 at 5:14 PM, harry_rag said:

#	Name	FP	Odds	Rating
1	English	39	201	188
2	McCarthy	38	126	120
3	Henley	32	81	111
4	Woo Kim	34	91	107
5	Scott	36	101	103
6	Theegala	29	51	102
7	Conners	33	81	100
8	De Chambeau	28	41	99
9	Bhatia	37	101	98
10	Reed	34	81	97
11	Im	38	101	95
12	Scheffler	11	5	94
13	Schauffele	20	17	93
14	Thomas	29	41	92
15	McIlroy	18	12	92
16	Woo Lee	35	81	90
17	Niemann	27	29	90
18	Matsuyama	23	21	90
19	Spieth	24	23	89
20	Young	31	51	88
21	Aberg	28	29	87
22	Clark	28	29	87
23	Rahm	21	14	87

My ratings, to be treated with extreme caution. If anything more an indicator that the fixed odds price might be value. FP is the estimated finishing position (sell price) on the spreads. Maybe of interest is you fancy a player or see one tipped and they're higher up the table.

What's impressive about these Harry, is all your top 10 made the cut. That is some doing mate. Nice work indeed.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, MinellaWorksop said:

What's impressive about these Harry, is all your top 10 made the cut. That is some doing mate. Nice work indeed.

Could just be dumb luck! To be fair it’s more about trying to rank the players based on value in the price rather than pure chance of winning. It’s quite labour intensive so I doubt I’ll do it every week but I’ll at least try and do all the majors.

[MinellaWorksop]

Finely poised between the top 4 or 5 going into the final round.

I would be surprised if anyone from any further back from the top 5 at 4 shots behind wins it. This is golf though, so I could end up with a warm dish of humble pie after that last statement lol.

[tonythepaint]

32 minutes ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Finely poised between the top 4 or 5 going into the final round.

I would be surprised if anyone from any further back from the top 5 at 4 shots behind wins it. This is golf though, so I could end up with a warm dish of humble pie after that last statement lol.

 

[tonythepaint]

32 minutes ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Finely poised between the top 4 or 5 going into the final round.

I would be surprised if anyone from any further back from the top 5 at 4 shots behind wins it. This is golf though, so I could end up with a warm dish of humble pie after that last statement lol.

Hoping Chris Kirk can have a good last round and sneak into 5th place.

200/1 , 5 places, quarter the odds.

[MinellaWorksop]

47 minutes ago, tonythepaint said:

Hoping Chris Kirk can have a good last round and sneak into 5th place.

200/1 , 5 places, quarter the odds.

He had an excellent round yesterday Tony to put him in good contention for the place money. Keeping my fingers crossed for you mate.

[fd1972uk]

On 4/13/2024 at 8:28 AM, MinellaWorksop said:

I did think of that when I saw him lurking on the leaderboard. I wouldn't be too hard on yourself though pal. If you look at his recent form he has shown very little at all this calendar year.

I did before yesterday play stick him on at 16s, boost bet from betfair.

 

[fd1972uk]

Barring the most ridiculous end, Scheffler donning the Green Jacket again.

Thank god for the boost from mgm, as wouldn't have went for him at those odds, even though I fancied him.

Barring DeChambeau really think those Liv players motivation to be at their best is going to be a problem because of the money they earn.

Look at the top of that leaderboard and it's all the non Liv.

Got a bad feeling Rory ain't gonna get that jacket, here's hoping it comes though.

[harry_rag]

Place return on D-C puts me somewhere in the neighbourhood of break even.