SPEED RATINGS

[Zilzalian]

6 minutes ago, LeMale said:

@MCLARKE if you have the time this late in the evening, could you let me know how far up your ratings Ticktyboo came in the 2020 at York please.

I have just had a peep techno kid and i see no reason it would/could win, do you see something i dont see? maiden, 3rd choice on jockey bookings crap speed figs on the plus side its not the best race on show today.

[LeMale]

4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I have just had a peep techno kid and i see no reason it would/could win, do you see something i dont see? maiden, 3rd choice on jockey bookings crap speed figs on the plus side its not the best race on show today.

Thanks for reply. EW Lucky 15 and the 66-1, 40-1 and 20-1 have all placed and the cash out is quite big. I put things like this in as the last leg if i feel the price will drop and it's one i've been tracking since it proved very popular at the breeze ups a while ago. It did well lto in traffic and was unlucky and although is up in class today, i didn't think it was much different, what do you think?

[LeMale]

1 minute ago, LeMale said:

Thanks for reply. EW Lucky 15 and the 66-1, 40-1 and 20-1 have all placed and the cash out is quite big. I put things like this in as the last leg if i feel the price will drop and it's one i've been tracking since it proved very popular at the breeze ups a while ago. It did well lto in traffic and was unlucky and although is up in class today, i didn't think it was much different, what do you think?

Price is coming in, was 22-1 10 mins ago.....

[Zilzalian]

3 minutes ago, LeMale said:

Price is coming in, was 22-1 10 mins ago.....

i dont do cash outs @LEE-GRAYS is your man for that lol.

if you are skint co if your not, leave it ur winning either way

place is possible to be honest

 

Edited 21 hours ago by Zilzalian
update

[Zilzalian]

9 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

i dont do cash outs @LEE-GRAYS is your man for that lol.

if you are skint co if your not, leave it ur winning either way

place is possible to be honest

 

typical..... tinkler 1st and 2nd your tinkler no where. did you co? if it makes you feel better i had ganesha ew 4 places and that bugger came 5th.

 

Edited 21 hours ago by Zilzalian

[LeMale]

19 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

typical..... tinkler 1st and 2nd your tinkler no where. did you co? if it makes you feel better i had ganesha ew 4 places and that bugger came 5th.

 

I am not very quick at typing and was rushing. It was the 4 fold acca i was worried about not the lucky 15, but no, i let them ride. I was going to c/o on the acca until the damn price crashed and because of the late money for it, i left it. (or if some one had said it had high speed figures, i was going to leave it) That was £1 ew and a 20p L-15, so it was a lot more for the acca. Thanks for the reply anyway. 

[Torque]

5 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Yes i agree but its all about getting the numbers/choices down in my case and nice feelings don't make money 😁

You can make money at odds on. It's a fallacy to suggest otherwise. Granted you might not be able to make as much because the margins are tighter, but you can certainly make money.

[Villa Chris]

14 minutes ago, Torque said:

You can make money at odds on. It's a fallacy to suggest otherwise. Granted you might not be able to make as much because the margins are tighter, but you can certainly make money.

It’s picking the right ones. Some have no right being odds on. Some van still offer value at odds on. 

[MCLARKE]

13 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I need to start backing these selections or stop looking at the thread! 

Otherwise it’s almost like I’m sat here wanting the “inevitable” correction to kick in, not out of malice but to justify my faith in the laws of probability.

But, then again, if there’s one thing that’s almost certain to curtail your good fortune it’s me putting money on your selections. Damned if I do… 

Admit it @harry_rag, you've started backing them, 19 losers in a row !

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, LeMale said:

I am not very quick at typing and was rushing. It was the 4 fold acca i was worried about not the lucky 15, but no, i let them ride. I was going to c/o on the acca until the damn price crashed and because of the late money for it, i left it. (or if some one had said it had high speed figures, i was going to leave it) That was £1 ew and a 20p L-15, so it was a lot more for the acca. Thanks for the reply anyway. 

Only just seen this, I did have 5 that passed my vriteria in this race including Ticktyboo but they all lost.

Personally, I never cash out.

[harry_rag]

7 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Admit it @harry_rag, you've started backing them, 19 losers in a row !

Not guilty, though I almost shouted out “result” when I read that as it’s as close as I’m getting to a winner! My overall YTD has found it’s way back to its mid April level.

No panic, there’s an inevitable correction on its way! 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

You can make money at odds on. It's a fallacy to suggest otherwise. Granted you might not be able to make as much because the margins are tighter, but you can certainly make money.

I don't doubt you can, and i did not say or suggest otherwise but my point wasn't about making or not making money on odds on's it was about getting the list of horses down to a more manageable level where you have so many choices. What would you rather do, drop a winning odds on shot or a winning say 6,7, or 8/1+ shot Mike seems to be getting plenty of them at those odds.

I will say this in regard to odds on shots, in my experience you have to be very knowledgeable and put a lot of work in many areas to make them pay, i will suggest that 95+% of punters are not capable or to put it in a nicer way, don't have the time or inclination or skills to know enough to succeed down the odds on route. @MCLARKE could give a better breakdown of the difficulties of betting odds on shots he did a pretty in depth/extended experiment on here on the very subject and by all the indications i have seen Clarkey is about as smart as you can get on this site with his experimentation, analysis and his mathematical/spreadsheet prowess. I can't remember his conclusion but i do know he abandoned it for more interesting endeavours. It would be interesting to know what his final conclusions were.

[Zilzalian]

58 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Not guilty, though I almost shouted out “result” when I read that as it’s as close as I’m getting to a winner! My overall YTD has found it’s way back to its mid April level.

No panic, there’s an inevitable correction on its way! 

hey 19 losers on the trot you have a choice now, get on the next bus or miss it....😁

[MCLARKE]

4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I don't doubt you can, and i did not say or suggest otherwise but my point wasn't about making or not making money on odds on's it was about getting the list of horses down to a more manageable level where you have so many choices. What would you rather do, drop a winning odds on shot or a winning say 6,7, or 8/1+ shot Mike seems to be getting plenty of them at those odds.

I will say this in regard to odds on shots, in my experience you have to be very knowledgeable and put a lot of work in many areas to make them pay, i will suggest that 95+% of punters are not capable or to put it in a nicer way, don't have the time or inclination or skills to know enough to succeed down the odds on route. @MCLARKE could give a better breakdown of the difficulties of betting odds on shots he did a pretty in depth/extended experiment on here on the very subject and by all the indications i have seen Clarkey is about as smart as you can get on this site with his experimentation, analysis and his mathematical/spreadsheet prowess. I can't remember his conclusion but i do know he abandoned it for more interesting endeavours. It would be interesting to know what his final conclusions were.

Indeed I did abandon the experiment, the theory didn't play out in practice.

I will still play an odds on shot if my systems produce one but most of my systems tend to point towards odds between 5/1 and 10/1 generally as the best area.

[MCLARKE]

1 minute ago, Zilzalian said:

hey 19 losers on the trot you have a choice now, get on the next bus or miss it....😁

It did end up with the last horse of the day winning

[Zilzalian]

2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

It did end up with the last horse of the day winning

Taxi for Harry 😁 he missed the bus....

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, LeMale said:

I am not very quick at typing and was rushing. It was the 4 fold acca i was worried about not the lucky 15, but no, i let them ride. I was going to c/o on the acca until the damn price crashed and because of the late money for it, i left it. (or if some one had said it had high speed figures, i was going to leave it) That was £1 ew and a 20p L-15, so it was a lot more for the acca. Thanks for the reply anyway. 

I do actually think there are arguments for cashing out accumulators to be honest especially where you stand to lose all at those type of odds you had picked. Personally i rarely do accas so i rarely have that decision to make but like i said judging on the odds you had already accumulated i would have revisted the last race just like you did looking for confirmation or a good reason to cash out.

[MCLARKE]

Just 1 winner and 2 places yesterday for a loss of 10 points

Current profit 145.80

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS	BOOKMAKER	PLACES
Ascot	1.50	Definitive	12.00	BET VICTOR
York	2.40	Korker	12.00	BETFAIR
Ascot	3.00	Orazio	7.00	BETFAIR
Chester	3.20	Saturnalia	9.00	BETFAIR
York	4.00	Mae Amor	7.50	BETFAIR
Chester	4.05	Balon D'or	10.00	BETFAIR
York	4.35	Eagle Day	10.00	BETFAIR
Chester	4.40	Ecclesiastical	4.00	BET VICTOR
Ascot	4.50	Great Blasket	20.00	LADBROKES
York	5.10	Charging Thunder	7.50	BETFAIR
Chester	5.20	Dickieburd	4.00	BETFAIR
York	5.40	Bill's Baar	4.00	BETFAIR
Chester	5.50	Theoryofeverything	7.00	BETFAIR
Lingfield	6.45	Airshow	12.00	LADBROKES	4
Salisbury	7.30	The Cola Kid	3.50	BETFAIR
Lingfield	7.45	Carmarthen	4.50	BET VICTOR
Salisbury	8.00	High Court Judge	7.00	BET VICTOR
Salisbury	8.30	Kingkeer	3.60	LADBROKES	3

[Torque]

13 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I do actually think there are arguments for cashing out accumulators to be honest especially where you stand to lose all at those type of odds you had picked. Personally i rarely do accas so i rarely have that decision to make but like i said judging on the odds you had already accumulated i would have revisted the last race just like you did looking for confirmation or a good reason to cash out.

I've only ever cashed out once and that was when the starting odds were pie-in-the-sky. But even then, if those are the odds you play then bets should stand. Stating the obvious, but to be a winning bet first of all it has to get to a point where cash out becomes attractive. If you cash out of what becomes a winner, then that won't pay for the losers and potentially give a profit overall.

[harry_rag]

If you want a simple rule then "never cash out" would be easily the best one. Definitely beats "place your bets then piss about micromanaging them weighing up your cash out options all day". Move on and do something else or find some more decent bets! 

One valid view is that you should never close out a bet unless the closing bet is one that is so attractive you'd have placed it even if you hadn't had the original bet. If your last leg goes odds on when you think it's clearly an odds against proposition then the cash out could be better value than letting it run. But laying on the exchanges would probably be a better option than the bookies' cash out.

The other "allowed" option would be where the cash out value is verging on being a life changing amount of money. There's an argument there for discretion being the better part of valour and something decent being better than nowt.

But by and large, just let the buggers run!