Trotter Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Still in the trial stage but here is thes top bet at today's turf meeting at Thirsk. 3.15 BURJ MALINKA - best speed figure obtained on good to firm going but also has the best speed rating in the race achieved on soft going (April last year). Top weight but last won off a rating of 62 compared to today's rating of 61. Current odds 7/2 favourite. Only slight question mark is that the race on soft going was over 5f rather than 6f. it's a gold mine ........ 😜 Hotspur88, harry_rag, LeMale and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Still in the trial stage but here is thes top bet at today's turf meeting at Thirsk. 3.15 BURJ MALINKA - best speed figure obtained on good to firm going but also has the best speed rating in the race achieved on soft going (April last year). Top weight but last won off a rating of 62 compared to today's rating of 61. Current odds 7/2 favourite. Only slight question mark is that the race on soft going was over 5f rather than 6f. Top man 🔥 harry_rag and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 (edited) Just curious @MCLARKEwhat do your speed ratings make of ay up its Maggie in the next ?? Edited April 9 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Still in the trial stage but here is thes top bet at today's turf meeting at Thirsk. 3.15 BURJ MALINKA - best speed figure obtained on good to firm going but also has the best speed rating in the race achieved on soft going (April last year). Top weight but last won off a rating of 62 compared to today's rating of 61. Current odds 7/2 favourite. Only slight question mark is that the race on soft going was over 5f rather than 6f. Fiver at 7/1 using my weekly double odds boost. MCLARKE and anaconda69 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronxie Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 A rich vein of form! Thanks @MCLARKE MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Just curious @MCLARKEwhat do your speed ratings make of ay up its Maggie in the next ?? Apologies, been out all afternoon. I had Ey Up It's Maggie well down my ratings, I had 2 joint top rated which came nowhere richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 Once again no flat turf racing ! I'll have my first bash on the AW. Top rated today is Fleurman in the 7.30 at Chelmsford. It came second in a £77k race at Newcastle last April. The winning time was 4.14 seconds faster than standard. However the winner has had a few poor runs since. I think someone mentioned that results from Newcastle should be treated with caution. Fleurman has had a few poor runs since then which is why it is the outsider at 10/1. Perhaps worth a small bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Once again no flat turf racing ! I'll have my first bash on the AW. Top rated today is Fleurman in the 7.30 at Chelmsford. It came second in a £77k race at Newcastle last April. The winning time was 4.14 seconds faster than standard. However the winner has had a few poor runs since. I think someone mentioned that results from Newcastle should be treated with caution. Fleurman has had a few poor runs since then which is why it is the outsider at 10/1. Perhaps worth a small bet. Yes it was me that said Newcastle should be treated with a bit of caution the figures seem to be all over the place. i am still trying to work out why. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Once again no flat turf racing ! I'll have my first bash on the AW. Top rated today is Fleurman in the 7.30 at Chelmsford. It came second in a £77k race at Newcastle last April. The winning time was 4.14 seconds faster than standard. However the winner has had a few poor runs since. I think someone mentioned that results from Newcastle should be treated with caution. Fleurman has had a few poor runs since then which is why it is the outsider at 10/1. Perhaps worth a small bet. Fleurman comes out on top on my figures but being blinkered 1st time means it will use up too much energy on the bends and fade but i hope i am wrong because i have backed it in my lucky 15 before i realised it was Blinkered 1st time. Offramp and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 In hindsight I should have noticed that the distance it gained its speed figure on was 2m 0.5f and todays was 1m 5f. To me it looked like it was staying on at the end and the extra distance would have suited. All part of the learning experience for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 4.14 seconds faster than standard over 13.3 furlongs would get an initial rating of 145 from me prior to any going allowance ..... and I'd have to check all the other races on the card to see if the ground was riding abnormally fast If you remember that Frankel was 'only' rated 140 I'd definitely be treating that standard time with caution ! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 49 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: In hindsight I should have noticed that the distance it gained its speed figure on was 2m 0.5f and todays was 1m 5f. To me it looked like it was staying on at the end and the extra distance would have suited. All part of the learning experience for me. it will perform better in 2nd time blinkers the only thing to learn is that if a horse has to go round a bend in first time blinkers it will not win in fact only 1 in 100 defy that stat, source- Nick Mordin. (he couldn't understand why it didn't apply in jumps races) MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 13 Author Share Posted April 13 First bit of flat racing today at Yarmouth Going Good To Firm which after all the rain elsewhere is a surprise My top rated today is Angle Land, I have it 4 lengths ahead of the next best. However that rating was on soft going so I will discount it on that basis. The next best are all close together so no bet for me, I will not try and force a bet. Zilzalian and In Play Race Reader 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: First bit of flat racing today at Yarmouth Going Good To Firm which after all the rain elsewhere is a surprise My top rated today is Angle Land, I have it 4 lengths ahead of the next best. However that rating was on soft going so I will discount it on that basis. The next best are all close together so no bet for me, I will not try and force a bet. I have it top rated on both goings and standard. It will be interesting to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 13 Author Share Posted April 13 I have Kuwait City as top rated on good to firm Would you restrict the going to good to firm or include good as well ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 1 minute ago, MCLARKE said: I have Kuwait City as top rated on good to firm Would you restrict the going to good to firm or include good as well ? Kuwait City just won 👀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 13 Author Share Posted April 13 4 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said: Kuwait City just won I didn't realise it had run, I don't want to be accused of after timing ! I don't think I would have backed it, I would probably want it to be top rated overall and also top rated on the going Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 (edited) 1 minute ago, MCLARKE said: I didn't realise it had run, I don't want to be accused of after timing ! I don't think I would have backed it, I would probably want it to be top rated overall and also top rated on the going Certainly not accusing you of after timing mate, it's not in your character. I've seen how transparent you are to know you wouldn't have known it had run 👍🏼 The eyes meant another winner for your ratings mixed with why the hell didn't you put it up earlier 🤣 Edited April 13 by Hotspur88 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 The big problem this early in the season is unfit horses the one to take out of Angle Lands race is the ex Fabre trained Tremblant who prefers softer conditions and will win races this year. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 13 Author Share Posted April 13 1 minute ago, Zilzalian said: The big problem this early in the season is unfit horses the one to take out of Angle Lands race is the ex Fabre trained Tremblant who prefers softer conditions and will win races this year. I think training regimes might be better these days, the profitability of fit horses that had been prevalent for many years no longer seem to work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 I was sure I'd had a big win on Tremblant many years ago but it's not on the Racing Post database.... bit of digging around on Wiki and found that Tremblant won the Cambridgeshire at 16/1 in 1985 I remember the winners ! 😀 MCLARKE and Zilzalian 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 6 hours ago, MCLARKE said: I think training regimes might be better these days, the profitability of fit horses that had been prevalent for many years no longer seem to work I agree to a degree (rhymes that) but we also have the "need to get the handicap mark down" problem as well and because the eyes are everywhere it is easier to get a horse beaten over the wrong trip or as i have seen often on the AW run it around the outside of the field amongst other little tricks they employ. I can't emphasise enough how speed figures should be used with caution in handicaps the only time i use them is in top handicaps. In lower grade races i view them as better than nothing. You know your aw horses well from what i read so if your new found speed figure confirms your "form" selection then it is a very good plus and maybe a good reason to increase your stake. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 14 Author Share Posted April 14 Still working on the best way of using speed figures but I suspect I will only use them when the top speed has been achieved on the current going and distance so that should avoid the problem of horses being deliberately run over the wrong distance or going. I will probably use them in the better class races. One question I would ask is how far back would you go to look at speed figures, for instance would a speed figure achieved 3 years ago still be relevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Systemight Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 8 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Still working on the best way of using speed figures but I suspect I will only use them when the top speed has been achieved on the current going and distance so that should avoid the problem of horses being deliberately run over the wrong distance or going. I will probably use them in the better class races. One question I would ask is how far back would you go to look at speed figures, for instance would a speed figure achieved 3 years ago still be relevant. I am not a speed figures man so wouldn't have the gall to try to advise you guys on what is, or is not, the best way to use them. However, it has been reported that arguably the top man in this field (Phil Bull),owed his success to following horses (that had produced a good Speed Rating) through thick and thin, and in fact was notorious for selecting many shock long priced winners. His thought process being that if a horse can run to a particular time, in all likelihood,he will do it again one day. He described Speed Ratings as a tool which doesn't tell you how good a horse is,but how bad it is not. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 20 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Still working on the best way of using speed figures but I suspect I will only use them when the top speed has been achieved on the current going and distance so that should avoid the problem of horses being deliberately run over the wrong distance or going. I will probably use them in the better class races. One question I would ask is how far back would you go to look at speed figures, for instance would a speed figure achieved 3 years ago still be relevant. Well in my opinion and they way i formulate speed figures, i go off all its wins and places, horses move up and down the handicap over the years so they are relevant certainly for 4 years and i would suggest beyond, didn't Documenting win the other day at a decent price 22/1? That horse is 11 years old, Boom the Groom won 3 times last year at decent prices and that one is 13, the older horses tend to run at their own level all be it lack consistency steadily dropping down in grade until they are retired. That's why i am very weary of handicaps and only use speed seriously in Pattern races or in the heritage handicaps "worth winning". That's not to say they should be discarded because i use this type of horse in Lucky 15 etc for a bit of fun and have done reasonably well out of them. One thing to bear in mind about distances and goings in pattern races the top trainers have a pretty good idea of whether a horse can do the trip or ground particularly as they age from 2yo-3yo-4yo that's why we have so many horses pulled out if the conditions don't suit Trueshan is a good example of that. I do disregard or downgrade horses at distances that they haven't won over once they reach 4 year old and beyond especially in sprints but there are always exceptions to the rules. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 15 Author Share Posted April 15 Interesting. I always tended to avoid older horses but may need to review that. Top rated today is COCO BEAR in the 4.20 at Windsor but that was on soft, it is rated 6th on todays going so I will give that a miss. In the 4.50 SECRET STRENGTH is joint top rated (with Perseverants and Dancing In Paris) based on its run at Epsom last September over 7 furlongs on good to fim. It is rated second on todays good going (to Optiva Star). Available at 25/1 so may be worth a small EW bet as 4 places are available. Optiva Star is available at 16/1. In the 5.50 TARBAAN is top rated (5 lbs clear) based on its win at Yarmouth last September over todays distance on good to soft. It is rated second to Mildwjama. Available at 11/2, again with 4 places. Mildwjama is available at 28/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 15 Author Share Posted April 15 Top rated on todays going is UNDER THE TWILIGHT in the 3.50 based on its 3rd at Newbury last May over todays distance. It is rated second overall to the favourite Tiriac. Available at 12/1 (4 places). harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 38 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Top rated on todays going is UNDER THE TWILIGHT in the 3.50 based on its 3rd at Newbury last May over todays distance. It is rated second overall to the favourite Tiriac. Available at 12/1 (4 places). Missed that one. You've gone from 0 to "King of Speed" in no time at all! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 15 Author Share Posted April 15 Haven't had a penny on any of them yet ! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 12 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Haven't had a penny on any of them yet ! Patience is its own reward! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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