Racing Chat- Saturday 9th December

[The Brigadier]

An early look at Saturday's ITV races as I'm away for a few days. Good luck everyone.

 

Aintree 12.55

The first of nine races covered by ITV Racing today is this five runner 2M 4F listed mares chase. It looks a match between Venetia William’s Pink Legend and Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Zambella with slight preference for the latter who’s won this race the last two years (was run at Carlisle last year).There's only officially 2lb between the two principals and both are making their seasonal re-appearance. It’ll be a good race between them but the pick is Zambella.

 

ZAMBELLA 1 point win @ 11/8 BetVictor

 

Sandown 1.15

The re-arranged Betfair Fighting Fifth from last weekend is a real treat for racing fans with Constitution Hill making his re-appearance. The poster boy of the National Hunt scene he’s unbeaten in seven starts under rules, including the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle at the last two Cheltenham Festival. He’s officially rated 12lb and more superior than his rivals and has won on soft ground before. He should win this with possibly Love Envoi chasing him home.

 

Sandown 1.50

The 1M 7 1/2F Grade 1 Betfair Henry VIII Novices’ Chase has attracted six runners with the likely favourite Joe Tizzard’s JPR One who looked all set to win comfortably at Cheltenham last time in a Grade 2 until unseating his rider at the last when three lengths clear. He holds Petit Tonnerre on that form and may have most to fear from Paul Nicholls’s Iceo who was 13 lengths behind him at Newton Abbot in October and is now 15lb better off. He can get closer but it’s JPR One’s race to lose I think and he’s the pick with Brendan Powell in the saddle.

 

JPR ONE 1 point win @ 15/8 BetUK

 

Aintree 2.05

Fourteen line up for the 3M 2F BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase run over the unique Grand National fences. A strong fancy here is the Dan Skelton trained Ashtown Lad who was a very impressive winner of the contest last season (Percussion 5 1/2L back in third and 4lb worse off). He races here today off of a handicap mark only 2lb higher than last year and with the stable’s runners mostly needing a run this season we can forgive him his poor run in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton under the stable conditional jockey last time as surely that was a race to tee him up for a tilt at this. With Gordon Elliott running Coko Beach that has helped the cause of the pick as it has suppressed the weights forcing the bottom five horse to race from out of the handicap proper.

 

ASHTOWN LAD 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Sandown 2.25

A competitive class 2 2M handicap hurdle with a strong favourite here in the shape of the Nicky Henderson trained, JP McManus owned Impose Toi a warm enough favourite. He should go well but does have to contend with a 10lb rise in the weights and it may pay to look towards the bottom of the handicap and Venetia Williams’s Bucksy Des Epeires who is making his handicap debut from 2lb out of the handicap although that is negated by his jockey Ned Fox’s 5lb claim. He showed form in four starts in France before joining the in form Venetia Williams and made a winning British debut when beating Dan Skelton’s well touted Illico De Cotte by a nose in a Lingfield maiden hurdle last month with the pair pulling 10L clear of the rest. A mark of 121 looks workable and he looks the bet here.

 

BUCKSY DES EPEIRES 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

BUCKSY DES EPEIRES & ASHTOWN LAD 1 point each way double @ 15/2 (1/5 1234)& 4/1 (1/5th 1234) bet365

 

Aintree 2.40

The 2m 1F listed juvenile hurdle has attracted ten runners with Paul Nicholls’s Liari, a winner on his hurdling debut at Wincanton and Dan Skelton’s Le Fauve the two that interest me. I slightly prefer the former who his trainer had this to say about last month “He’s potentially a lovely prospect for those good four-year-old races in the spring; he looks in a similar mould to Rubaud”. Max Of Stars is the other runner with claims on the book but the consistent Ollie Pears trainer three year old may not relish a slog on very soft ground so it’s Liari for me.

 

LIARI 1 point win @ 7/2 Betfred

 

Sandown 3.00

Just five line up for the Grade 1 Betfair Tingle Creek Chase run over just short of two miles. Nicky Henderson is in for a big day today with Constitution Hill running earlier and he can complete a big race double with his exciting two miler Jonbon who impressed more than ever when winning on his re-appearance at Cheltenham 20 days ago coasting home to beat the re-appearing Edwardstone by 9 1/2L who looks held here as does the third that day Nube Negra and with Boothill also held on last year’s Henry VIII Novices’ Chase form on this card this looks a straight forward task for JP McManus’s seven year old. Like stable companion Constitution Hill earlier he will be at prohibitive odds but it’s hard to look beyond him.

 

Aintree 3.15

A competitive 2M 4F class 2 handicap hurdle concludes racing at Aintree today. Plenty are in with a chance but it would be no shock if Paul Nicholl’s top weight Sonigino was to bounce back to winning form now upped to a trip that should suit. He’s run creditably on both starts this season finishing placed in the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow and the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham. Off of the same handicap mark as last time he looks sure to be thereabouts. Ben Case’s Bashers Reflection is an improver having won well at Wetherby in the mud last time and should also run well even if he is 7lb higher in the weights.

 

SONIGINO 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Sandown 3.35

Ten go to post for the 3M 4F 146 yard London National Handicap Chase, although a couple here Cyclop and Fortescue will run at Chepstow (if that meeting beats the elements). Venetia Williams and 5lb conditional jockey Ned Fox could be in for a good day with Bucksy Des Epeires in the 2.25 and Fontaine Collonges here. We haven’t seen the eight year old for 268 days but he has had a wind operation in the interim and won first time out last season in a valuable handicap chase at Haydock off of a handicap mark only a pound lower than today’s. With his trainer in such fine form still he can strike at the first time of asking this season. Beauport doesn’t look that badly treated and looks the danger.

 

FONTAINE COLLONGES 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor

 

[White Feather]

BECHER CHASE TRENDS

AGE

Seven of the last 10 winners of the Becher Chase were aged eight or nine – Aintree specialist Vieux Lion Rouge (2016 & 2020) and Oscar Time (2014) were the only horses outside the age bracket.

CHASE FORM

A lot of experience over fences appears key as nine of the last 10 winners had at least seven previous runs over fences and the same number had at least two wins over the larger obstacles.

COURSE FORM

You want to look for a horse that has previously run at Aintree as nine winners of the Becher Chase since 2013 met this trend.

DISTANCE FORM

Eight of the last 10 winners had run over 3m or further on at least five previous occasions.

LAST TIME OUT

An emerging trend to note is that the last six winners of the Becher Chase all had just one prep run.

RATING

As the Becher Chase is a handicap, we aren’t exactly dealing with the cream of the National Hunt crop, but nine of the last 10 winners were all rated 135 or higher by the handicapper.

WEIGHT

The presence of 162-rated Coko Beach in the line up means 10 of the 14 runners meet the stat that eight winners since 2013 carried 10st 9lbs or less to victory.

[Sporting Sam]

Looks to be some wild weather forecast on Saturday and it may pay to be on the lookout for confirmed mudlarks and those bred to appreciate heavy ground.

[black rabbit]

Goshen                                              1 15 San/                1/40th   of a pt win   42/1

Wayfinder                                          1 37 Chp/               1/40th of a pt ew      25/1                -   2nd

Chambard                                         2 05 Ain/                 1/40th of a pt ew      22/1                - WON

Coeur Serein                                     3 35 San/                1/40th of a pt ew      25/1

Sidi Ismal                                           2 05 Ain/                 1/40th of a pt ew      40/1

Furzig                                                 3 30 New/               1/40th of a pt ew      50/1

 

 

P+L     + 173.20 pts

Edited December 9, 2023 by black rabbit

[fd1972uk]

Constitution Hill pulled, no shiskin. Meh.

[White Feather]

Ashtown Lad 5/1 general - Aintree 14:05

Spirit D'aunou  11/2 Bet 365 - 14:25 Sandown

2 x singles - double

[calva decoy]

2.25 Sandown - SPIRIT D'AUNOU 11/2 bet365 . 1st 👍

6.15 Wolves - GREATGADIAN 5/2 William Hill . 2nd 👎

Edited December 9, 2023 by calva decoy

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

[Tedthewolf]

1.30 Aintree  I like the price of  A WAVE OF THE SEA 14/1 is too big in my book having first run for new stable since arriving from Ireland on a nice mark interesting runner in this  decent  e/w chance IMO,  1.5pts  e/w  3pts invested.

1.35 Chepstow   FORESCUE 10/1 1,5pts e/w  A very well handicapped horse  better than has shown of late  nice e/w price  looking to see a big run from this horse today! 3pts invested.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[fd1972uk]

Had Heltenham as main bet and mb2, but was nearly out on its feet there and finished 3rd, meh.

Do have Richmond lake part of a treble with jpr one and jonbon (used my free bet from wh from this bet by replacing jor one with colonel harry).

Ain 1405

Ashtown lad mb3 (uni)

Also on Highland hunter.

Do have a couple of coral bet bundles to use, probably go on coko beach and moroder. 

Ain dbl (special) 1515 sonigino 1535 beauport. 

 

 

[black rabbit]

16 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Goshen                                              1 15 San/                1/40th   of a pt win   42/1

Wayfinder                                          1 37 Chp/               1/40th of a pt ew      25/1                -   2nd

Chambard                                         2 05 Ain/                 1/40th of a pt ew      22/1                - WON

Coeur Serein                                     3 35 San/                1/40th of a pt ew      25/1

Sidi Ismal                                           2 05 Ain/                 1/40th of a pt ew      40/1

Furzig                                                 3 30 New/               1/40th of a pt ew      50/1

 

 

P+L     + 173.20 pts

Chambard and "lucy Turner"  deliver the goods 🙂

[fd1972uk]

Complete washout, meh.

[black rabbit]

1 hour ago, black rabbit said:

Chambard and "lucy Turner"  deliver the goods 🙂

early evening  at the "beer house" followed by Curry house"

will have   "cockel"  ew escobar 10/1 + outrace  9/1  and  graphite -@ 14/1

for a bit of evening interest at the "Duck" 🍻

Edited December 9, 2023 by black rabbit

[MinellaWorksop]

@LEE-GRAYS  the legend that is Not So Sleepy wins again! 11 years young winning a Grade One. What a character.

[LEE-GRAYS]

6 minutes ago, MinellaWorksop said:

@LEE-GRAYS  the legend that is Not So Sleepy wins again! 11 years young winning a Grade One. What a character.

Great had a little dabble 💰💰👍

[Sporting Sam]

Hopefully playing in the penultimate races at both all weather tracks tonite.

 

[Sporting Sam]

Newcastle 745

NOTABLE

Each way 

Easy winner here on last visit.

has since seen out penalty and no chance within sixties chic so feasible chance here and obvious claims on back of 2:25 lengths win over Kraken power here.

[Sporting Sam]

Notable well beaten at Newcastle in the last.

Wolverhampton 2000

WHATAWIT

win

sir mark Prescott has this dual bumper winner where he wants him here.

[Sporting Sam]

Wolverhampton 2030

the laws of physics decrees that

NOLTON CROSS

Win

should win this easily while a cursory glance at the form book and the draw data reveals that 

WAY OF LIFE

is drawn to win too and has been knocking on the door every single run.

going with the physics 

way of life win without nolton cross @ 100/30

handicapper running scared too raising him a pound for last excellent effort