NFL Week 12 - Predictions

[harry_rag]

Week 12. Give thanks for some Thursday and Friday action; makes for a less frenetic Sunday at least!

[PercyP]

Week 11 Results

The week 11 bet was over when Joe Burrow picked up a season ending injury when giving the Bengals a 10-7 lead against the Ravens. Without Burrow in the second half the Ravens were able to win at their leisure. Cowboys and Browns win but the Lions lost ATS and the Titans played like a team that has given up for the season.

Picks 5 Won 2 Lost 3, Staked 30 points, Returned Nil points for a loss of 30.00 points.

ATS YTD record

Picks 55 = W28 D4 L23 – staked 330.00 points – returned 780.09 points resulting in a 2023 seasonal profit of +450.09 points

49Ers, Dolphins, Bills, Commanders and Chargers all appear nailed on this week according to the pundits. However this is the NFL and surprises do and will happen. I would not be surprised to see 2+ upsets ATS, so I have purposefully avoided these games. I was happy to avoid the three upsets involving the Dolphins, Commanders and Chargers.

1. Bengals to win ATS +3.5 points @ 10/11 – THURSDAY NIGHT = Burrow injury scuppers bet. Ravens win 34-20, - LOST

Defeat against the Texans last week, makes this a must win game for the Bengals. Injuries to key players in the Ravens line up helps the Bengals cause. Injury to Joe Burrow puts paid to the Bengals chances.

2. Titans to win ATS +7.0 points @ 10/11 = Titans poor losing 34-14 - LOST

The Titans are an extremely physical team. Just the type of team Trevor Lawrence hates to play. It is time for Derrick Henry to show his talent. What shocking performance from the Titans. Derrick Henry is a mere shadow of his former self. Are they losing to get a top draft pick?

3. Dallas Cowboys to win ATS -10.5 points @ 10/11 = Cowboys easy win 33-10 - WON

Dallas has a habit of beating up on bad teams and the Panthers are bad (1-8).  Dallas should win big. They did, the Panthers are bad.

4. Browns to win ATS -1.0 points @ 10/11 = Browns win 13-10 - WON

Despite winning for me last week, the Steelers are by far the luckiest team in the NFl.  However their best form comes at home. The Browns also excel at home (4-1), with their one loss coming against the Ravens when their QB was injured. The Steelers luck will run out this week. Browns win an ugly game.

5. Lions to win ATS -7.5 points @ 10/11 = Lions won by 5 (31-26) - LOST

Even with Justin Fields back, I cannot see how the Bears keep this close. The Lions are better in all positions. Jared Goff the Lions QB is usually “Mr reliable” but was terrible for most of the game giving away 3 turnovers. But in the final four minutes he was able to lead the Lions to victory taking the Lions down the field to score two touchdowns. Pure class by Goff.

[PercyP]

Week 12 Picks

1. Dolphins to win ATS -10.0 points @ 10/11 – FRIDAY NIGHT

The Jets offence has been dreadful all season. Dropping Zach Wilson was inevitable. Replacement Tim Boyle a 29 year old journeyman was a back-up for Wilson (so he must be horrendous). Boyle has had three NFL starts which came in 2021 for the Lions; he went 0-3 with three touchdowns and six interceptions. Miami who are ranked first in passing and second in rushing should win this easily, though keeping players safe and healthy will be their main objective.

2. Lions to win ATS -7.50 points @ 10/11 - THURSDAY NIGHT

The Lions are ranked fourth in passing yards per game and fifth in rushing yards per game take on a mediocre Packers team. It’s Goff versus Jordan Love. Goff will not play like he did in week 11.

3. Colts to win ATS -2.5 points @ 10/11

Whilst the Bucs have been competitive, they are 2-6 in their last eight games. The Colts main weakness is against rushing teams, however the Bucs are dead last in rushing yards per game. Home advantage should enable the Colts to go 6-5.

 4. Saints to win on Moneyline @ 10/11

Desmond Ridder returns as the starting QB for the Falcons. The second-year quarterback was previously benched because of his inability to avoid turnovers and sacks. Turnovers are the Falcons problem, including Ridder’s six interceptions and seven fumbles. He has been sacked 25 times.

5. Patriots to win ATS -3.0 points @ 5/6

I must be losing it, picking the Patriots to win a game on the road.  However, the Patriots coming off of a bye week will feast on the Giants QB Tommy Devito. He took nine sacks against the Commanders on Sunday.

Bet:

10 x 1 point trebles

5 x 3 point 4 timers

5 point accumulator

30 points staked

All prices Bet365

[harry_rag]

21 hours ago, PercyP said:

Lions to win ATS -7.50 points @ 10/11 - THURSDAY NIGHT

The Lions are ranked fourth in passing yards per game and fifth in rushing yards per game take on a mediocre Packers team. It’s Goff versus Jordan Love. Goff will not play like he did in week 11.

The RP concur on the selection and the sentiment. For me Gibbs at evens and St. Brown at 11/10 are system bets and Dillon at 6/4 appeals despite being too low on the spreads to be a system qualifier. I'm on the latter two at 2.26 and 2,54 on the exchange. It's a bit early but I've used my Epic Odds boost on this game. 9.7/1 for Goff to have >22.5 completions, >1.5 passing TDs and >0.5 interceptions. Hopefully he has a good game but still manages to have one go astray!

Next up is Washington at Dallas where the RP again favour the favourites to cover the handicap. I've played Pollard at 5/6 and his back-up Dowdle at 17/4. Pollard a system bet were it not for the the 1.9 minimum odds criteria but makes enough appeal to "go short" on this occasion. Dowdle was an injury doubt and is very much in the main man's shadow but 4/1 is a standout and just looks a shade to big to my uneducated eye.

Finally we have SF at Seattle which brings up the hat trick of fav's on the cap tips in the RP. I've taken Aiyuk at 9/5 and think there's just enough juice in Lad's double up of him to score a TD and have 100+ receiving yards in a SF win at 28/5. I've used the freebie earned at the weekend on that one. McCaffrey tests the notion of 1/2 being "too short" with his stats but it's no play for me.

Good luck all with any plays on tonight's action 

[MinellaWorksop]

One bet builder for me in the Thursday Thanksgiving games with Bet365

Four legs to this one:

San Francisco 49ers Win

Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Brock Purdy Over 1.50 Passing Touchdowns

Over 3.50 Field Goals Both Teams Combined

Odds of 6.75

[fd1972uk]

If I had did a acca woulda put in Lions, but they're getting a tanking. Looks like my td acca is out, had brown and montgomery so looking poor.

Will play around with some bets for 49ers and dallas, both to win, just a case of bet building it with tds etc.

[fd1972uk]

Took the wrong double, did look at la Porta, but thought I'd take the safer bet, lol.

[harry_rag]

7 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I've played Pollard at 5/6 and his back-up Dowdle at 17/4. Pollard a system bet were it not for the the 1.9 minimum odds criteria but makes enough appeal to "go short" on this occasion. Dowdle was an injury doubt and is very much in the main man's shadow but 4/1 is a standout and just looks a shade to big to my uneducated eye.

Apprentice first then the master. Shame I didn’t do the double though not sure it was an option.

[MinellaWorksop]

Great shouts once again @harry_rag  the Commanders got dominated.

McCaffrey continues being a Touchdown machine, though only got 2 out of the 4 legs correct in the bet builder.

[fd1972uk]

If Mostert and Hill score tonight at least get my bet back as free bet.

Cant believe I never took a Cowboys  player in acca, stupid as Brown would not have been my choice.

Got Samuel and sf up only, bet builder 10/1. All other bets out although free bets from betfair and 888 to use. Epics out the window, had Pollard and dallas and Mccaffrey and SF.

Will go for it tonight with some free bets and a bet offer for Miami from 888. Will go the usual Hill and Mostert td, possibly 1st but see what prices the any tds come in at. 

Dolphins are my team and there is a bit of doubt I've been seeing, but thinking with Jets 3rd QB having to play I'm confident.

Edited November 24, 2023 by fd1972uk

[harry_rag]

Aiyuk scores so none from 3 in the first game then 3 out of 3 later on. Both BetBuilders were one leg short; no interception from Goff and Aiyuk well short on the yardage.

A decent enough night overall.

[harry_rag]

Miami for an easy win against the Jets tonight? Another back-up player for me; Jeff Wilson jr at 23/10 with a small bet on the brace at 18/1. Very much second fiddle but, with Achane missing, I'm not sure he should be that big. Hall was going to be a bet at 7/4 but is looking like a swerve now trimmed to 8/5 unless I get matched on the exchange.

[harry_rag]

For better or worse I'm doubled down on Wilson as the 3.55 I put up on BF also got matched. Not on Hall.

[fd1972uk]

Need dolphins win, 25 pts dolphins and total of 30 pts, already hill up, pity went safe bet for 1st team td.

[fd1972uk]

Started doubting the scoring, but that last minute of the half was crazy. Holland pick has to be seen to believe.

 

FD

[fd1972uk]

7/1 up today via free bet. Not too bad couple of days.

Also just remembered moneyback on td acca, that 1 is doing me all the time, lol, still miffed went against Cowboys, meh.

 

FD

[MinellaWorksop]

Broncos won last week leaving the results as,

Home Teams: 5/10, -1.95pts

One Selection this week and having another go with the odds boosted bet builder with Hills

Home Team: Tennessee Titans 1.55 Bet365

The Titans host the Carolina Panthers who are struggling for form currently as are the Titans as well admittedly. Though I can forgive the Titans as they have had three games on the trot away from Home and so a return to Home soil will preferably see an upturn in fortunes for the Titans.

 

The Bet builder is based on the same game, with three legs:

Tennessee Titans To Win

Will Levis Over 1.50 Passing Touchdowns

Nick Folk Under 1.50 Field Goals

Odds boosted to 11.20

[harry_rag]

Henry (Tennessee) at 11/10, Etienne (Jacksonville) at 5/6 and Swift (Philadelphia) at 6/5 my 3 for tonight. Swift very much the nap in terms of edge.

[fd1972uk]

Had Henry first td, 2 tds for titans and -3.5, but also need 20 pts for them, lol, felt it was a cert early doors. But that's it over. Can only hope panthers get a td and take it to OT.

[fd1972uk]

Kc game have bet builders kn

Kelce 1st team td, chiefs -6.5, chiefs 20 pts , chiefs 2 td

Pacheco 1st td, 23 pts kc -5.5, butter 2 ep

 

Eagles

Hurts 1st tm td, eagles -3.5, eagles 20 pts, eagles 2td

 

Same about without 2 tds, a j brown 1st td

Had etienne on td but missed from 3 inches out or something, lol. Moneyback if paycheck, kelce and hurts score td (Henry was other).

[fd1972uk]

Meh, another let down after decent start. Bills running away with it at Eagles,  no way are they turning it around and winning by 4 pts.

Can only hope Kelce scores and gives me a freebie.

Still can't believe Titans couldn't must up a score in last 2 quarters, lol.

[MinellaWorksop]

10 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Meh, another let down after decent start. Bills running away with it at Eagles,  no way are they turning it around and winning by 4 pts.

Can only hope Kelce scores and gives me a freebie.

Still can't believe Titans couldn't must up a score in last 2 quarters, lol.

Ha, tell me about it mate. Once again the bet builder is let down by one with Will Levis throwing zero passing touchdowns lol.

I should've gone with @harry_rag   and the Derrick Henry anytime Touchdown Scorer angle. Hindsight is always a winner mind.

Epic game between the Eagles and the Bills. The Eagles keep their impressive record going. Fly Eagles Fly.... Osi from the NFL show will not be a happy chappy lol.

[harry_rag]

Felt like a bad week but, factoring in stakes, odds and free bets, I only ended up 14 points down so one more winner would have been enough for a profit. Certainly better than I thought. On we go to what the more superstitious among us might call "Week 12.5"!