harry_rag Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 Whilst the veil is still being quietly drawn over my less than inspiring week 3 results, here's the opening show for week 4. I look forward to everyone's thoughts as formlines start to settle down. MinellaWorksop and tschurchy 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tschurchy Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 Nothings jumping out at me on the team markets. Maybe the Under for Raiders at Chargers? any suggestions on the TD markets? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 26, 2023 Author Share Posted September 26, 2023 2 hours ago, tschurchy said: any suggestions on the TD markets? I can't run without fuel and I don't get "filled up" until the spread prices go up for player TD minutes. Compared to the rest of you I'm entirely unburdened with any knowledge about the sport and am just tentatively trying out a system approach that seems to work for football. Yet to do the week 3 update but I think results are lagging last couple of seasons so far. Still, at least I get to hang around with you lot! tschurchy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tschurchy Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 22 minutes ago, harry_rag said: I can't run without fuel and I don't get "filled up" until the spread prices go up for player TD minutes. Compared to the rest of you I'm entirely unburdened with any knowledge about the sport and am just tentatively trying out a system approach that seems to work for football. Yet to do the week 3 update but I think results are lagging last couple of seasons so far. Still, at least I get to hang around with you lot! I genuinely think there’s something in that. My mate won our FPL comp even though he knew nothing about football. He just looked at the stats! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PercyP Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Week 3 Results: 1. Dolphins to win ATS -6.5 points @ 10/11 - Record performance by the Fins (70-20) - WON 2. Dallas to win ATS -12.0 points @ 10/11 - What a shock losing to the Cardinals (28-16) - LOST 3. New England Patriots to win ATS -2.5 points @ 20/23 - Patriots tough it out (15-10) - WON 4. Jacksonville to win ATS -9.5 @ points 10/11 - Another big shock, Jags lose at home (17-37) - LOST 5. Detroit to win ATS -3.00 points @ 20/23 - Lions comfortable win (20-6) - WON ATS - Won 3 Lost 2 Staked 30 points. Returned 6.67 for a loss of -23.33 points ATS YTD record Picks 15 = W7 D2 L6 - staked 90.00 points – returned 15.54 resulting in a seasonal loss 2023 of -74.46 points harry_rag and MinellaWorksop 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PercyP Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Week 4 Picks 1. Browns to win ATS -3.0 points @ 20/21 Home advantage, a mean defence and injuries to the Ravens give the advantage to the Browns. 2. Bengals to win ATS -2.0 points @ 10/11 Whilst QB Burrow is still playing through his injury, there were signs at the weekend of the Bengals returning to form. 3. Vikings to win ATS -3.5 points @ 10/11 The Vikings are 0-3 this season, however the luck has gone against them. Time for the Vikings to get their first win. 4. Steelers to win ATS - 3.0 points @ 10/11 The Steelers have only lost to the 49Ers. The Texans beat a Jags team which just could not hold on to the ball. Steelers are the better team. 5. Rams to win Moneyline @ 1/1 The 2021 Super Bowl Champions LA Rams can take care of the colts, thanks to QB Matt Stafford and clever coaching plays by Sean McVay. Bet: 10 x 1 point trebles 5 x 3 point 4 timers 5 point accumulator 30 points staked All prices Bet365 harry_rag and MinellaWorksop 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 28, 2023 Author Share Posted September 28, 2023 Think I'll pass on the opening game. Only one firm up with the spread prices so far and I prefer to have both inputs. Nothing screaming out for further attention so I'll declare there unless SPIN get their act together before I clock off for the evening. Gibbs 2.5 on the exchange if you pushed me for a pick. stop press: SPIN's prices going live as I type so will have a quick look now. No change; no system qualifiers anyway and nothing that looks worth going for. Pile on Gibbs as he's now officially nailed on! MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 If the pattern continues, I'm due a bad week. Let's see - starting with Detroit at Green Bay where there's plenty I like. 25pts D. Montgomery to score a TD @ 2.33 24pts AJ Dillon to score a TD @ 2.63 13pts S. LaPorta to score a TD @ 3.45 34pts L. Musgrave to score a TD @ 3.94 5pts J. Love to score a TD @ 5.90 15pts C. Reynolds to score a TD @ 12.76 5pts B. Wright to score a TD @ 12.76 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Last week's results update, Home Team: 0/2, P/L: -2.00pts Away Team: 2/2, P/L: +4.70pts This week's selections are as follows, Home Team: Chicago Bears 2.50 Hills Away Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.60 Hills The Bears face off against the Denver Broncos. Both teams coming off heavy defeats. The Broncos the heavier after conceding 70 points last time out. This cannot be good for confidence amongst the Broncos players. The Buccaneers play against the New Orleans Saints who also must have low confidence after leading 17-0 all the way up until the final quarter only to go and lose 18-17 last time out. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 1, 2023 Author Share Posted October 1, 2023 History made as I notice a Sunday early game before it's started. Etienne 11/10 and Robinson 6/5. Usual Sunday routine; just sticking to the system picks as no time for anything else, see how the returns look after this week. Good luck all. MinellaWorksop and Torque 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 1, 2023 Author Share Posted October 1, 2023 Henry 23/20 at Tennessee Williams 6/5 at Chicago Diggs 23/20 at Buffalo Mostert 2.02 at Buffalo Williams (at Indi) 11/10, Mattison 6/5 and Allen 13/8 three I'm leaving alone as can't get on at near enough to that best available price. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 (edited) Missed the Wembley game - probably a good thing as TD's were scarce. I don't like anything at the top of the market in the Dolphins v Bills and so I'm playing some longer shots. 18pts D. Harty to score a TD @ 7.86 12pts J. Hill to score a TD @ 12.27 6pts C. Wilson Jr. to score a TD @ 13.74 10pts A. Ingold to score a TD @ 17.66 Edited October 1, 2023 by Torque harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Patriots at the Cowboys is next for me. 20pts E. Elliott to score a TD @ 3.21 22pts E. Elliott to score a TD @ 3.30 10pts B. Cooks to score a TD @ 4.23 26pts D. Parker to score a TD @ 5.31 8pts M. Gesicki to score a TD @ 7.86 13pts D. Douglas to score a TD @ 11.78 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 1, 2023 Author Share Posted October 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, Torque said: Patriots at the Cowboys is next for me. 20pts E. Elliott to score a TD @ 3.21 22pts E. Elliott to score a TD @ 3.30 10pts B. Cooks to score a TD @ 4.23 26pts D. Parker to score a TD @ 5.31 8pts M. Gesicki to score a TD @ 7.86 13pts D. Douglas to score a TD @ 11.78 How are you picking these out of interest? My approach is mainly system based, trying to channel the methodology that seems to work for “soccer”. Are you coming at this with a decent knowledge of the teams and players and/or having a look at stats. Where I do take a closer look at a game I just tend to go to Fantasy Pros and look at the player TD projections and their stats/game log. Are their other stats you consider? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 25 minutes ago, harry_rag said: How are you picking these out of interest? My approach is mainly system based, trying to channel the methodology that seems to work for “soccer”. Are you coming at this with a decent knowledge of the teams and players and/or having a look at stats. Where I do take a closer look at a game I just tend to go to Fantasy Pros and look at the player TD projections and their stats/game log. Are their other stats you consider? I'm far from an expert on the sport but I watch a fair bit. I use stats to begin with and then if there's a price I like I'll think about form, matchups - the usual stuff. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Some going by mccaffrey. Added aiyuk any time td, but not to be, meh. Have got up cowboys and lamb first td, and earlier jefferson 1st team td and vikings. Saints did my acca. 49ers, bills and cowboys look really good. Maybe go for chiefs and 1st td kelce and pacheco if odds are half decent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 Chiefs at the Jets to finish the day. 35pts I. Pachecho to score a TD @ 2.88 11pts B. Hall to score a TD @ 3.21 23pts S. Moore to score a TD @ 4.33 10pts R. Cobb to score a TD @ 10.31 8pts B. Bell to score a TD @ 17.66 MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 MNF sees the Seahawks at the Giants. I'm backing a few and hoping to recover some losses. 19pts DK Metcalf to score a TD @ 2.47 10pts D. Waller to score a TD @ 3.55 17pts G. Brightwell to score a TD @ 4.82 14pts I. Hodgins to score a TD @ 5.51 20pts N. Fant to score a TD @ 6.49 8pts W. Robinson to score a TD @ 7.86 7pts D. Dallas to score a TD @ 9.04 4pts C. Parkinson to score a TD @ 9.62 6pts W. Dissly to score a TD @ 9.82 2pts D. Bellinger to score a TD @ 12.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 That ended up being a rough week. Back in the red for the season, although it might have been different if Fant's TD had stood. The margins are very fine sometimes. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 29 minutes ago, Torque said: That ended up being a rough week. Back in the red for the season, although it might have been different if Fant's TD had stood. The margins are very fine sometimes. My instinct is to say that 10 in one game is too many but I'm not sure I can give you any great wisdom on how to eliminate some of the losers while retaining all the winners! Will reckon up tomorrow but did find a couple of winners so shouldn't be too bad. Nothing appealed last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 4, 2023 Author Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 from 6 both at 2.15 so a small loss on the week. Onto week 5! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 4, 2023 Author Share Posted October 4, 2023 System has thrown up 33 bets so far this season and would be showing a 1.65 point level stakes profit with an ROI of 5.01% so I think I'll stick with it (and stop trying to find any additional bets). I've managed to make a loss thus far, presumably as a result of my "off piste" bets and, perhaps, missing some of the winners because I couldn't get on at best price. alexcaruso808 and MinellaWorksop 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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