richard-westwood Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Silver cup Rathbone 9.0 ??....15/2 Jump the gun. 8.8 8/1 Aplomb. 8.8 14/1 Gulliver 8.2 Illusionist. 8.2 Very very difficult race to rate ....computer has flagged top rated as potential improver ahead of hccaper ??.....but jump the gun has collateral form with rathbone and shouldn't be far away from him ....aplomb has been showing good form recently too .....I'll try 5pt wins top 3 this time ...but it's a toughie The Brigadier, MinellaWorksop, The Equaliser and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 Gold cup Orazio. 9.0. 11.0 Juan le pins. 8.9 10/1 Significantly 8.7 12.0 Bielsa. 8.4 Fast response 8.2 Top 3 5pt wins Brahmin, Sporting Sam, The Brigadier and 3 others 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1(8) Certain Lad9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 14:40 Newbury 14:40, 23 Sep Best Odds Guaranteed 9(2) Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 13:15 Ayr 13:15, 23 Sep Best Odds Guaranteed 13(1) Bernardo O'Reilly14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, 23 Sep Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4 18(21) Mr Wagyu14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 15:35 Ayr 15:35, 23 Sep Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD I really fancy these to run well tomorrow so its 0.3 e/w L15 = 9pts invested MinellaWorksop, The Equaliser, black rabbit and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Nine races covered by ITV today and here’s my preview of the nine. Ayr 1.15 Richard Spencer’s seven year old Revich has a good record in this race having won it in 2021 from a 3lb lower handicap and was third last year off of the same mark as he races off of today. He comes here in good form having run well at Chester earlier this month despite being drawn poorly. Hollie Doyle comes in for the ride in this ten runner 1M class handicap and looks poised to run a big race. REVICH 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 123 Newbury 1.30 Just the five sprinters line up for this Group 3 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes run over 5F. The current favourite is the William Haggas trained Sense Of Duty who is returning from an absence of 455 days and has never raced on ground this testing. He has to be taken on and maybe today’s the day for Andrew Balding’s Nymphadora who seems to relish the mud. Oisin Murphy is on board for his old guvnor and can take the opener at Newbury today. NYMPHADORA 1 point win @ 5/1 William Hill Ayr 1.50 With My Prospero an eleventh hour defection only seven line up for the Doonside Cup. Amy Murthy’s Pride Of America has conditions to suit and the genuine front runner can make all and see off his biggest danger in Royal Rhyme who like the selection will love the cut in the ground. PRIDE OF AMERICA 1 point win @ 10/3 BetVictor 1/5th 123 Newbury 2.05 A tricky seven runner class 2 handicap which may fall to Ian Williams’s Oneforthegutter who put up a career best last week in the Mallard Handicap at Doncaster on the softest ground that he’s ever encountered when going down by a short head to Imaginary Day. This race looks no better and off of just a one pound higher mark can go one better under Richard Kingscote. Look for the firms who are paying three places. ONEFORTHEGUTTER 1 point each way @ 7/1 Coral 1/5th 123 Ayr 2.25 The first of the two big sprint handicaps is the Ayr Silver Cup run over 6F with a maximum field of 25. The two that stand out from a point of handicapping are Michael Herrington’s Rathbone and Iain Jardine’s Jump The Gun. They actually met in an apprentice handicap at Doncaster last week and with Conor Planas now able to claim his 3lb its the former that makes the most appeal and can be backed each way with additional places. RATHBONE 1 point each way @ 15/2 Betfred 1/5th 123456 Newbury 2.40 The testing ground will be very much a factor here with the likes of Totnes and Le Mans unproven on such a slow surface. Balance Play may have found the fast ground at York against him and is worth another chance to bounce back to form on this much slower surface. Course winner Mustazeed can also run well and looks one of the dangers to the selection. BALANCE PLAY 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor Ayr 3.00 Nine have declared for the Group 3 Fifth Of Clyde Stakes for two year old fillies run over 6F and although short enough in the betting it’s hard to oppose the Owen Burrows trained Shadwell Stud owned Raqiya. She’s looked useful in winning at Salisbury and Haydock this autumn and can take this step up in class in her stride with the owners retained jockey Jim Crowley up here to ride. RAQIYA 1 point win @ 11/8 William Hill Newbury 3.15 Eight two year olds line up for the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes with the officially highest rated being George Scott’s Seven Questions who has already shown his liking for soft ground when winning at Ripon in August. Just touched off in the Sirenia Stakes at Kempton last time he can go one better now back on easy ground with Callum Shepherd doing the steering. SEVEN QUESTIONS 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365 Ayr 3.35 The meeting’s feature race is the 6F Ayr Gold Cup run over 6F with a maximum field of 25. Julie Camacho has had a terrific season with her top sprinter Shaquille and appears to have a decent chance here with her five year old Significantly who went down in a bobbing finish by a short head to Annaf last Saturday at Doncaster in the Portland Handicap and reappears off of the same handicap mark. Drawn in the middle he will be ridden by Joe Fanning and a big run is expected in this famous old sprint handicap. SIGNIFICANTLY 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456 In Play Race Reader, Brahmin, The Equaliser and 8 others 8 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 (edited) Millebosc 2 40 Nby/ 1/40th of a pt ew 18/1 Came from The Dark 4 20 Yrk/ 1/40th of a pt ew 28/1 Punchbowel Flyer 2 25 Ayr/ 1/40th of a pt ew 80/1 Admiral D 2 25 Ayr/ 1/40th of a pt ew 25/1 - 3rd Albasheer 3 35 Ayr/ 1/40th of a pt ew 20/1 - 4th Aleezdancer 3 35 Ayr/ 1/40th of a pt ew 20/1 Last Ammo 4 00 Nm/ 1/40th of a pt ew 28/1 Temple Bruer 3 25 Nm/ 1/40th of a pt ew 16/1 P/L +171.35 pt Edited September 23, 2023 by black rabbit selections kensland, MinellaWorksop, azzybear and 5 others 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 (edited) The time travelling Sam strikes again. Wrong day. I’ll try and put one in here this evening for tomorrow! Edited September 22, 2023 by Sporting Sam The Brigadier and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 A few stats fromrthe Gold / Silver /Bronze cups 1st 5 in the betting forecast, 15 from 150, profit 84 points, remainder 10 from 431, loss 168 points Last ran 29 to 35 days ago, 8 from 77, profit 119 points Draw > 20, 8 from 121, profit 55 points vikki37, The Brigadier, richard-westwood and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 (edited) 17 hours ago, Sporting Sam said: The time travelling Sam strikes again. Wrong day. I’ll try and put one in here this evening for tomorrow! and here it is a group 1 in Australia 1 of only 10 races I’ll be covering today ( maybe less). 23rd September. race 1. One for any early birds on Saturday morning ROSEHILL AUSTRALIA 07:00 am Golden Rose Stakes (Group 1) (3yo) (Turf) (3yo) SHINSO CHARM STONE Both win Second leg of a triple attempt worth 5 million to the successful punter and owners. Ryan Moore renews the winning partnership aboard Shinzo and gives up a string of curragh rides. he was onboard for a successful run in the golden slipper here in December beating charm stone. He lines up in the race as one of only two without a recent run. He gates high up the line from stall ten. In contrast the female in the contest Charm Stone goes from the lowest stall and with the allowance aims to be the first filly to take the contest in many years. Ridden by Local jockey Damian Lane, knowledge of the course could prove vital. Ryan Moore and his rival are both stepping up in trip to seven furlongs. Cylinder is closely matched with both runners and must rank as the main danger having already run over the trip. like Ascot Adventure yesterday, cylinder is horse three drawn in stall six and could prove to be the pivotal horse in the race and as such I’m backing him to win too. Cylinder to win. *************************** 1st Militarize 2nd Encap 3rd Cylinder Broke well, held up in midfield on outer, ridden and headway 1 1/2f out, driven over 1f out, ran on well to dispute lead near finish, headed post. Blanket finish distances to first place head, nose. Edited September 23, 2023 by Sporting Sam black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 (edited) Wolverhampton. 8.00. Hashtagmetoo 11/2 Ayr. 1.15. Judgement Call 11/1 unpl Good luck all. Edited September 23, 2023 by kensland The Equaliser and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Feather Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Aplomb 11/1 Coral (bog) 2:25 Ayr - well handicapped Ramazan 16/1 Coral (bog) 3:35 Ayr - Trainer states "I'm very pleased with him, and he is an interesting runner" 2 x singles - each way double. richard-westwood, The Equaliser, black rabbit and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 (edited) As I’ve said I’m covering no more than ten races today . One has gone already a group one in Australia. Ryan Moore had an impossible draw and nothing outside stall 6 got into it and the best I did was third. Today is gold cup day and it was Tom segal who opined in the weekender a few years ago regarding the gold cup that people who “over obsessed” about the Ayr draw were wrong to do so. I knew then that something about pricewise and the racing post was fundamentally wrong. I stopped reading him pretty much there and then as he clearly had gone over to the ‘other side’. This is the same guy who used to talk about outliers and the draw. I hope he comes back one day!! The draw is everything, and if not everything as big as the weights and form. race number 4 the curragh 3:05 real force Similayia swift edge laugh a minute conbination tricast laugh a minute Swift edge similayia all each way real force win real force won well last time and the depths of this former Roger Varian runner may have yet to be reached. race number two the curragh 3:40 GOFFS MILLION the draw data horse in stall 7 belongs to British raider Brian Meehan. Count pallentine each way @ 66/1 and each way at sp Cheery Blossom win small stakes has a high draw to overcome. and would be doing incredibly well to win from there. Very likely that Frankie has been given Aidan O’Briens favoured runner in the absence of globetrotter Ryan Moore. Race three newbury 1:30 Nymphadora win Three key constituents to the selection process the draw Adjusted draw data points very strongly to stalls four and five and taking into account the horses, it’s pertinent to go to stall 5. the jockey Oisin Murphy strike rate in first races on the card is prodigious. He copies his hero Dettori in aiming to win his first race to get the best start to the day. the going Tips it in favour of Nymphadora. the only heavy ground winner and did for kings Lynn ( the horse not the town) on it in may. it would be great to see sense of duty win this after 450 days away but if a horse has had training issues getting him home sound has to be the priority. This is also the wrong trip. race number six I’ve covered the silver cup at Ayr further down the page on Richards post. Listowel 2:10 HIGH CLASS HERO win high class hero to win by 5+ lengths @ 11/4 novice hurdle form franked yesterday by tag man who looks a top horse drops back a furlong here and will be very hard to beat. The presence of two stablemates including pink in the park a course winner protects his price. the other runner ridden by Danny Mullins is said not to like the ground. Mullins is hard to second guess and stops a maximum bet. But fairly confident of this one winning especially given tag mans performance just yesterday Edited September 23, 2023 by Sporting Sam black rabbit and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 On 9/21/2023 at 10:42 PM, richard-westwood said: Silver cup Rathbone 9.0 ??....15/2 Jump the gun. 8.8 8/1 Aplomb. 8.8 14/1 Gulliver 8.2 Illusionist. 8.2 Very very difficult race to rate ....computer has flagged top rated as potential improver ahead of hccaper ??.....but jump the gun has collateral form with rathbone and shouldn't be far away from him ....aplomb has been showing good form recently too .....I'll try 5pt wins top 3 this time ...but it's a toughie Indeed it is but you’ve done great these last few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said: Indeed it is but you’ve done great these last few days. I love rating races like this win or lose .....I just like to get involved and relish the excitement ....races like this were every other weekend but now getting very thin .....I'm hoping the top 3 run well .....but I'll have 2 PT saver on Gulliver just in case he translates that south well run back to turf today ...bearing in mind he was rated in the 100s at one time so off 89 he is still well hcapped in theory .....but there's 25 runners and anything can happen A win in the silver cup would guarantee finishing in profit over the 3races (only a 2pt loss even if all the races lose now so not the end of the world for all the entertainment ....but it would be nice to finish in profit or even do the clean sweep ...whhoop 😃 Edited September 23, 2023 by richard-westwood MinellaWorksop, black rabbit, The Equaliser and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 On 9/21/2023 at 11:49 PM, richard-westwood said: Gold cup Orazio. 9.0. 11.0 Juan le pins. 8.9 10/1 Significantly 8.7 12.0 Bielsa. 8.4 Fast response 8.2 Top 3 5pt wins Juan non runner ....sub bielsa The Equaliser and LEE-GRAYS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 (edited) 3.25 Newmarket - EQUIANO SPRINGS 9/1 eway bet365 ( 4 ) 3rd 4.20 York - ARECIBO 14/1 eway bet365 ( 6 ) 👎 Good luck to all & especially at Ayr , one of my along with Newbury & Sandown to name 2 of courses to avoid . Edited September 23, 2023 by calva decoy The Equaliser and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 winnx 11.20 France The Equaliser and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 On 9/21/2023 at 11:49 PM, richard-westwood said: Gold cup Orazio. 9.0. 11.0 Juan le pins. 8.9 10/1 Significantly 8.7 12.0 Bielsa. 8.4 Fast response 8.2 Top 3 5pt wins Juan is not non runner so I'll have a bash at the tricast today ..Orazio ...significant ...bielsa ... Fast response and old Mr wagyu for 20p tricasts The Equaliser and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryanpete Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Gold cup SummerGhand 10/1 Money back as a free bet if loses so worth a shot for me 🙏 black rabbit, The Equaliser and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Ayr. 3.35. Lethal Levi 22/1 / Northern Express 14/1 bth £2 ew . Good luck all richard-westwood, Zilzalian and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 (edited) On 9/21/2023 at 10:42 PM, richard-westwood said: Silver cup Rathbone 9.0 ??....15/2 Jump the gun. 8.8 8/1 Aplomb. 8.8 14/1 Gulliver 8.2 Illusionist. 8.2 Very very difficult race to rate ....computer has flagged top rated as potential improver ahead of hccaper ??.....but jump the gun has collateral form with rathbone and shouldn't be far away from him ....aplomb has been showing good form recently too .....I'll try 5pt wins top 3 this time ...but it's a toughie Woven each way woven Rathbone Jump the gun. Aplomb. illusionist Gulliver win combination tricast Edited September 23, 2023 by Sporting Sam black rabbit and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Someone else obviously thinking along my lines for the Ayr gold cup half an hour ago I was looking at the draw and ROHAAN was a double figure price he’s the highest drawn highest weighted horse a group winner and has been running group one class this year not surprisingly he hasn’t placed recently. He looks thrown in on past form. ROHAAN win Bielsa And mr wagyu both each way MCLARKE and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Stats for the gold cup. Draw 1 to 7, 0 from 55. Forecast odds rank 1 to 5, 7 from 44, profit 72 points. Remainder 2 from 152, loss -78. Last ran 21 to 49 days ago, 7 from 87, 81 points. This leaves 3 ORAZIO 17/2 ROHAAN 9/1 MR WAGYU 16/1 black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 how annoying? black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 (edited) Ayr 3:00 Imperiality each way Well the new method is working. Laugh a minute has just swooped late to take the 3;05 at the curragh. When I wrote that race up I was writing about an anomaly about curragh horses in big field handicaps and what I have noticed in recent years. As I was typing I had to go to another website to write something down and when I went back to my post it hadn’t been saved. So I just wrote the selections. But the anomaly held true and another winner in the bag. The other decent piece of betting news concerns the rugby. England are a massive 6/5 to manage to score four tries + in each half. I was expecting it to be five tries + per half @ 4/5. Fill your boots. I haven’t Odds checked it but that’s what my bookie is offering. I’m sure you can get better elsewhere. First half will be a bit shaky as they will be throwing the ball about like crazy. Edited September 23, 2023 by Sporting Sam CS 333 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 Well the ground has gone very soft and there appears to be a huge draw bias to low draws ....so based on my ratings that only leaves bielsa and fast appraoch and possibly significantly ....drawn centre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Well the ground has gone very soft and there appears to be a huge draw bias to low draws ....so based on my ratings that only leaves bielsa and fast appraoch and possibly significantly ....drawn centre Thanks Richard I’ve added fast approach each way. im still keen on The mighty Rohaan and I think he might be an outlier for us all. Summerghand has had a great year too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brahmin Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 (edited) Ok Just doing a few today off the site, none my own after good afternoon Thursday and then also Daily NAP won Thursday evening @ 12/1 EW to round off good day..... 😎 @The Brigadier coming up trumps today for me so far with Revich 9/2 and Balance Play 10/3 and now with Significantly 10/1 EW.... so 3 wins👍 Newmarket 2.50 our friend came up with Ararat 3/1 Won said easily going away 👍 The 4.00 doing his advice of Campaign Trail 3/1 & Extensio 5/1 from Ireland York 4.20 going with both Easterby horses Manila Scouse 16/1 EW 3RD and Hyperfocus 16/1 EW Newm 4.35 doing 2 with Chelsea Green 6/1 and Karat Karat 2/1 Newm 5.10 pays 4 places so Orchestra 12/1 EW 3RD and Le Reveur 18/1 EW 4TH Edited September 23, 2023 by Brahmin The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 (edited) 30 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Well the ground has gone very soft and there appears to be a huge draw bias to low draws ....so based on my ratings that only leaves bielsa and fast appraoch and possibly significantly ....drawn centre Increased my bets on the low drawn .....significantly did the business ....had loads of trouble in running ....would have won easy with straight run !!!....prob about +50 .00 after losses Oh and Ew on fast response who placed so a few points extra 🎉 Edited September 23, 2023 by richard-westwood Brahmin, black rabbit, Sporting Sam and 3 others 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 eton blue 5.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 al dunn 5.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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