NFL Week 3 Predictions

[PercyP]

First the Week 2 results:

All my picks were in close games in week 2, but unfortunately the results went against me.

1.      Kansas City Chiefs to win ATS -3.5 points @ 10/11 – Chiefs win 17-9  = WON

 2.      Eagles to win ATS -6.0 points @ 10/11 – Eagles win by six (34-28) = PUSH / DRAW  

 Eagles let a 27-7 lead diminish to just six.

 3.       Chargers to win ATS – 3.0 points @ 20/21 – Chargers lose in overtime = LOST

 Chargers were not helped by Ekeler being unable to play. The running game stalled with just 61 yards on the ground.

 4.      NY Giants to win ATS @ -5.5 points @ 10/11 – NYG make a record comeback to win (31-28 ) but fail to beat the spread = LOST

 5.      New Orleans Saints to win ATS -3.0 points @ 20/23 – Saints win (20-17) by three = PUSH / DRAW 

Saints led  20-9 with 3 minutes left.

Week record W1 D2 L2 staked 30.00 points - returned 1.91 for a loss of - 28.09 points

YTD record 10 Matches ATS - W4 D2 L4 staked 60.00 points – returned 8.87  YTD Loss = - 51.13 points

[PercyP]

The underdogs have made a good start to the 2023 season. However, this will change in week 3.

 1.      Dolphins to win ATS - 6.5 points @ 10/11

Playing in the heat of Miami is always tough. Playing the Bronco’s with Russell Wilson should make it easier.

2.      Dallas to win ATS -12.0 points @ 10/11

I still think the Cardinals are the worst team in football.

3.      New England Patriots to win ATS - 2.5 points @ 20/23

The Patriots have beaten the Jets 22 times in the last 24 H2H meetings.

4.      Jacksonville to win ATS - 9.5 @ points 10/11

Jacksonville was defeated by Kansas last week. The Texans are not that quality.

5.      Detroit to win ATS - 3.0 points @ 20/23

Atlanta will have a hard time keeping up with Detroit.

Bet:

10 x 1 point trebles

5 x 3 point 4 timers

5 point accumulator

30 points staked

All prices Bet365

[harry_rag]

Someone's eager!  Here's the games, lines and prices.

[harry_rag]

A tricky opener for me from a TD scorer perspective.

McCaffrey looks fair at worst at 1/2 if you don't mind going that short. 9/4 or more for a brace maybe. 3/1 Jones will be my only play. Might struggle with the passing game against the 49ers so may have to lean into his rushing game. 

Anyone else playing this one or keeping the powder dry for Sunday?

[MinellaWorksop]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

A tricky opener for me from a TD scorer perspective.

McCaffrey looks fair at worst at 1/2 if you don't mind going that short. 9/4 or more for a brace maybe. 3/1 Jones will be my only play. Might struggle with the passing game against the 49ers so may have to lean into his rushing game. 

Anyone else playing this one or keeping the powder dry for Sunday?

I'll be waiting til Sunday.

I think it will be extra tough for the Giants without one of their key players Barkley out injured.

Best of luck with Jones.

[harry_rag]

35 minutes ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Best of luck with Jones.

Matched at 4.2, has gone to 16/5 with Betway.

[Torque]

4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

A tricky opener for me from a TD scorer perspective.

McCaffrey looks fair at worst at 1/2 if you don't mind going that short. 9/4 or more for a brace maybe. 3/1 Jones will be my only play. Might struggle with the passing game against the 49ers so may have to lean into his rushing game. 

Anyone else playing this one or keeping the powder dry for Sunday?

I'll have a look later. Although I'm not as enthusiastic since last weekend's horror show. Still, got to plough on with it as being down right now doesn't mean anything just like being up after the first fixtures of the season.

[harry_rag]

21 minutes ago, Torque said:

I'll have a look later. Although I'm not as enthusiastic since last weekend's horror show. Still, got to plough on with it as being down right now doesn't mean anything just like being up after the first fixtures of the season.

Are you a seasoned punter on this market or having a first proper crack at it? So far I’m finding my approach works better in NFL than it seems to do in either code of rugby, though I’m yet to do any serious analysis in that respect.

[Torque]

1 minute ago, harry_rag said:

Are you a seasoned punter on this market or having a first proper crack at it? So far I’m finding my approach works better in NFL than it seems to do in either code of rugby, though I’m yet to do any serious analysis in that respect.

First crack Harry - with the exception of the last few Super Bowls.

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, Torque said:

First crack Harry - with the exception of the last few Super Bowls.

It’s a market I could never get any traction on from a selling point of view, perhaps surprisingly. TD minutes borderline profitable at best so I binned it off. Last couple of seasons’ data suggesting there could be value at the top end of the anytime market. I’m sure there’s hay to be made at bigger prices but I don’t want to spread myself too thinly on an additional sport to my “core” betting.

[Torque]

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

It’s a market I could never get any traction on from a selling point of view, perhaps surprisingly. TD minutes borderline profitable at best so I binned it off. Last couple of seasons’ data suggesting there could be value at the top end of the anytime market. I’m sure there’s hay to be made at bigger prices but I don’t want to spread myself too thinly on an additional sport to my “core” betting.

I reckon the best bets are the favourites or near the top of the betting. Everybody wants a big price winner and that skews the prices.

[Torque]

3 hours ago, Torque said:

I reckon the best bets are the favourites or near the top of the betting. Everybody wants a big price winner and that skews the prices.

With the above in mind I'm backing a bigger price . I wanted to take McCaffrey to balance things out, but I can't get a price I like.

25pts G. Brightwell to score a TD @ 7.27

[Torque]

Got a price on McCaffrey in the end.

45pts C. McCaffrey to score a TD @ 1.53

[Torque]

A few more as the market firms up closer to the start. I've also gone in again on Brightwell as he's drifted slightly.

17pts M. Breida to score a TD @ 3.94

37pts J. Jennings to score a TD @ 4.72

31pts G. Brightwell to score a TD @ 7.47

5pts P. Campbell to score a TD @ 8.64

32pts R. Bell to score a TD @ 9.82

[Torque]

A good night - undid the losses of last week. Fingers crossed for the remaining matches.

[MinellaWorksop]

Results from last week, Detroit lost in overtime.  Though thankfully the Commanders delivered the goods.

Home Teams: 0/1 , P/L: -1.00pt

Away Teams: 1/1 , P/L: +1.65pts

 

This week's selections as follows,

Home Team: Washington Commanders 3.05 Hills

Away Team: Houston Texans 4.05 Hills

 

Going again with the Commanders. Much tougher game this week against the Buffalo Bills though this is more than compensated in the price.

The Texans play away at the Jags and I feel they are worth taking on after a tame match last time out against the Chiefs in which both teams were below average.

[tschurchy]

2 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Results from last week, Detroit lost in overtime.  Though thankfully the Commanders delivered the goods.

Home Teams: 0/1 , P/L: -1.00pt

Away Teams: 1/1 , P/L: +1.65pts

 

This week's selections as follows,

Home Team: Washington Commanders 3.05 Hills

Away Team: Houston Texans 4.05 Hills

 

Going again with the Commanders. Much tougher game this week against the Buffalo Bills though this is more than compensated in the price.

The Texans play away at the Jags and I feel they are worth taking on after a tame match last time out against the Chiefs in which both teams were below average.

I can’t see the Commanders getting the dub. Although, I would say that being a Bills fan 😄.

[tschurchy]

I was about 200pts in profit last season betting on the totals and I’m ready to test water this week.

DAL @ ARI - Over 43

I think this game will be a blowout with these so QBs (I actually think Dak could take the Cowboys all the way this season).

NEP @ NYJ - Under 35

Two teams that rely on their defence to win games. I can’t see it being a big score.

Double - 3.64 @ Bet365

[MinellaWorksop]

1 hour ago, tschurchy said:

I can’t see the Commanders getting the dub. Although, I would say that being a Bills fan 😄.

To be fair, the Bills bounced back impressively after their Week 1 disappointment.

After two wins from two against lesser opposition than the Bills, this will be a true test for The Commanders.

[harry_rag]

Good luck all, so much football today (as usual) that I'll just stick to the bare system picks with no further study; gives me an interest and see how it pans out over the season. Just listed by the home team (I remember the names from week to week but couldn't tell you who most of them play for if you quizzed me)! 

Gibbs and Robinson (Detroit) 10/11 Sky Bet and 21/20 Fred

Hill and Mostert (Miami) 10/11 Betway and 10/11 Hills

Etienne (Jacksonville) 10/11 Fred

Kelley (Minnesota) Evens Hills

Henry (Cleveland) 23/20 Betway (less than you'd like to bet*)

Walker (Seattle) Evens Uni

* "bookmaker" of the week award goes to Betshy who will lay me £4.35 on any player I like, regardless of price. Even Paddy takes my full stake (modest as it is) on this sport and their maximum for me on "proper" football is now zero. Obviously I'm brilliant beyond words and rightfully strike fear into the whole bookmaking community** but when you can't get a tenner on at prices well shorter than 2/1 it's a pretty poor show.

** Heavy irony, for the avoidance of doubt. Especially when it comes to my betting on the odd shaped balls sports.

[Torque]

The first game I'm looking at is the Chargers at the Vikings and here's what I've got.

25pts J. Jefferson to score a TD @ 1.92

25pts M. Williams to score a TD @ 2.78

8pts G. Everett to score a TD @ 4.72

14pts CJ Ham to score a TD @ 17.17

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, Torque said:

The first game I'm looking at is the Chargers at the Vikings and here's what I've got.

25pts J. Jefferson to score a TD @ 1.92 - 25.5

25pts M. Williams to score a TD @ 2.78 - 15

8pts G. Everett to score a TD @ 4.72 - 8

14pts CJ Ham to score a TD @ 17.17 - 2

Out of idle curiosity, added their try minutes buy prices to see how the return would compare (will report on how that pans out for mine as well as got the numbers in the spreadsheet). I think at the top end of the market buying might struggle to beat backing (players scoring "too early") but with a mixed range of prices could be more interesting to compare.

[fd1972uk]

Jaguars stinking the place out had them and a couple of first tds for team, etienne ornridley.

Chiefs tonight and kelce or paycheck 1st team tds

Cowboys tonight and pollard or lamb 1st td.

Already should have Hill and Dolphins up.

 

Edited September 24, 2023 by fd1972uk

[fd1972uk]

Dolphins score is ridiculous, lol.

[Torque]

Next up for me is the Bears at the Chiefs.

37pts K. Herbert to score a TD @ 3.65

22pts K. Toney to score a TD @ 4.23

[Torque]

29 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Dolphins score is ridiculous, lol.

I wish I'd been looking at TD's in that one 

[MinellaWorksop]

37 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Dolphins score is ridiculous, lol.

Where was the Broncos defence? Lol The Dolphins 🐬 run riot.

 

@tschurchy well done to the Buffalo Bills 🐃 , the Commanders well and truly outclassed 👏

[tschurchy]

4 minutes ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Where was the Broncos defence? Lol The Dolphins 🐬 run riot.

 

@tschurchy well done to the Buffalo Bills 🐃 , the Commanders well and truly outclassed 👏

Miami next week will be fascinating.

[Torque]

Last match is the Steelers at the Raiders.

28pts C. Austin III to score a TD @ 5.51

21pts A. Hooper to score a TD @ 6.49

12pts A. Abdullah to score a TD @ 10.31

[Torque]

8 hours ago, Torque said:

Last match is the Steelers at the Raiders.

28pts C. Austin III to score a TD @ 5.51

21pts A. Hooper to score a TD @ 6.49

12pts A. Abdullah to score a TD @ 10.31

Did Austin score? I think he did but my accounts say different.