Rugby World Cup 2023

[harry_rag]

Would be running at -1 on the paper trades after England's demolition of Chile. Scotland -25 might've been a play to maintain the 50/50 split but I can't be sure how the prices moved so I won't count it.

Ratings say Uruguay by 9 so Namibia +17 a clear (paper trade) play on that basis for tomorrow. 5 red cards so far (must admit I hadn't realised there had been that many) so next one sees money start to flow on the antepost bets (all fines from 5+ to 10+).

[harry_rag]

Samoa +2 points and NZ +27 my take on the next couple of games, both very close to the handicap therefore would be no bet for the experiment purposes.

Sold Uruguay hotshots at 49 and their sub try minutes at 48. Hotshots being Baltazar Amaya, Bautista Basso, Nicolas Freitas, and German Kessler.

A couple of eye-catching tryscorer prices, both on players who I've opposed with the hotshots sell and with firms I can't get on with, are 6/4 Freitas and 8/5 Amaya.

Seems a game with a reasonable prospect of serving up a red card, fingers crossed.

[harry_rag]

Got the red card and made a small net profit on the game with hotshots making up at 100 but subs at zero and was matched for a small amount on Amaya at 2.73

[philipwalsh19]

On 9/8/2023 at 5:18 PM, philipwalsh19 said:

I've backed over 5.5 reds @ 4/6 and bought red cards @ 6.8 on Sporting Index

Some reference stats...

Exactly half-way through the tournament and the over 5.5 red cards bet has hit already. 6 cards so far.

Anymore red cards from here and the spread bet starts paying out 💪🏻

[harry_rag]

A peppering of interest bets for tonight; Fidow to score a try at 11/5 Uni, Samao 1st yellow card at 13/8 Hills and Samoa 2+ yellows at 5/1 Sky Bet.

Samoa yellow at evens is the KISS option but I do think there's a bit more value in the selections and am hopefully not just being greedy.

Back at 50/50 in the handicap paper trades after Namibia only lost by 10 last night, nothing tonight or tomorrow on that front.

[harry_rag]

Saturday's ratings lead to (paper trade) bets on all 3 underdogs. 

Argentina by 40 so Chile +50

Scotland by 41 so Romania +59

Fiji by 9 sp Georgia +19

[harry_rag]

Sold New Zealand hotshots and subs tonight at 71 and 68, hotshots being Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan, Mark Telea and Codie Taylor.

Interest bets that look ok to me at the prices are each team to have a yellow card at 5/1 with Hills, Telea try in both halves at 7/1 Sky Bet and Savea try at 2/1 Uni.

[harry_rag]

NZ subs made for fairly gruesome watching; one of those bets where you're glad of the stake limits that apply.

Argentina subs and hotshots and Scotland hotshots would be clear sells for me but fall foul of my "no arbs" rule.

That leaves me selling Fiji hotshots (Ilaisa Droasese, Selestino Ravutaumada, Semi Radradraand Sam Matavesi) at 54 and their subs at 57 and Scotland subs at (wait for it) 158.

[harry_rag]

One for interest in the first game at what looks like a clearly decent price. 

Juan Martin Gonzalez and Isa both to score a try at 9/2 with Lads.

[harry_rag]

Tabutsadze try at 9/4 for an interest. Was going to do Fiji 1st yellow at 13/5 but just too late. Probably best as it would have been a rushed bet, just seemed big regardless of the degree of them being favourites.

[harry_rag]

Watching the Scotland game, have done Graham try before 10:00 at 11/2 with Hills and Ashman try both halves at 13/2 Lads.

[harry_rag]

On 9/29/2023 at 3:38 PM, harry_rag said:

Saturday's ratings lead to (paper trade) bets on all 3 underdogs. 

Argentina by 40 so Chile +50

Scotland by 41 so Romania +59

Fiji by 9 sp Georgia +19

Just the Georgia one would've landed so down to -1 on the paper trade handicap bets. NZ by 51 tomorrow so would play Uruguay +67. Hoping the red cards kick back in for this final round of games. Got 2/1, 4/1 and 9/1 shots lined up for each of the next three that are shown.

[harry_rag]

Sold NZ hotshots at 133, profit unless they combine for 6 or more tries. (Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Codie Taylor)

If I stick to the system I should be selling their sub try minutes at 135 but the 210 point loss suffered in the game against Italy gives me pause for thought. I think I'll apply a rare veto. Looking at my stats I've sold the AB subs 22 times and won on 15 occasions but show a net loss of 18 points. Each of the 4 times they've attracted 3 figure quotes the total has been over 100 and those 4 bets have cost me 395 points. (They were only 68 to sell against Italy but weighed in at 278.)

No regrets should they make up at 0 tonight; I'll have a more comfortable watch of the game and can hope for a load of sub tries to ratify my decision.

[harry_rag]

Jordie Barrett 1st half try at 7/2 Lads for an added interest.

[harry_rag]

On 10/5/2023 at 1:56 PM, harry_rag said:

Sold NZ hotshots at 133, profit unless they combine for 6 or more tries. (Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Codie Taylor)

If I stick to the system I should be selling their sub try minutes at 135 but the 210 point loss suffered in the game against Italy gives me pause for thought. I think I'll apply a rare veto.

So much for applying discretion! Hotshots made up at 175 but subs only 118. I guess one should blindly follow a proven winning formula! NZ covered the handicap so running at -2 in that respect, no play tonight with the lines to close to France by 28 points.

Sold their hotshots at 68 and subs at 64. Hotshots are Thomas Ramos, Damian Penaud, Louis Bielle-Biarrey & Peato Mauvaka.

[harry_rag]

My (very much experimental) ratings for the semis are as follows (handicap lines in brackets)

Argentina +3 (Wales +4)

Ireland +1 (+2)

England +7 (+8)

South Africa +1 (France +1)

Argentina with a 4 point start or at 15/8 to win the game would be the only potential trades, the other games are all too close.

Not been great for me from a betting perspective so far but no regrets about losing a few bets for interest in games I've enjoyed watching. Still got some antepost bets that could turn it around in terms of P/L.

• On New Zealand at 15/2 (currently 4.9 on the exchange)
• On any group runner up to reach the semis at 1/2 (gives me NZ, SA, Fiji and Arg; markets suggest it's more like a 1/6 shot)
• Got 2/1, 4/1 and 9/1 winners to be landed by each of the next 3 red cards shown (if any). Not been any for a while but I'd say they're decent prices about 1, 2 or 3 more from the remaining games.

 

[harry_rag]

[neilovan]

Hi All,

For me two clear opportunities this weekend. Having watched most of the games (except the blowouts).

Argentina are just not good. Sloppy with the ball, scrummaging badly, stupid mistakes, slow loose forwards and terrible with the restarts. I thought they just had an off day against England, but they were rubbish against Japan as well. I think Wales, who are solid, will beat them easily. Prob 10+ points.

The Boks will be far better against France, than they were against Ireland. Against Ireland they were quite poor in the red zone, blowing 4 of 5 good chances.  They also went for posts when they could have kicked for the corner 3 times. The only thing they did well against Ireland was defend. The other aspects of the game are just expected from a Bok side.

Pollard will be kicking, and Lukhanyo Am (for me the best center in rugby) will be back. I expect the team  performance to rise considerably (from a 6.5 to a 9+). They have France's number and I expect a 7+ points win.

 Good luck

 

[Fader]

If anybody sees 2/1 boost for Wales and Ireland to win tomorrow then please let me know. I may have to look at handicap betting to get a good price but I fancy both to win.

[BOOKIEBASHER 13]

I've gone for Wales, Ireland & Wigan all to win by 1 - 12 points.  TREBLE PAYS 13/1 BET365 

[harry_rag]

Plenty of antepost interest in the quarter finals as it stands but picked 4 tryscorers at appealing prices and put them in doubles and upwards.

Carreras 5/2, Jordan 2/1, Daly 11/4 and Bielle-Biarrey at 11/4

[Offramp]

The Wales team was beaten badly by Argentina, and tragic Ireland lose to New Zealand. I reckon it's possible that the southern hemisphere will dominate the World Cup (not for flat-earthers).

I mean, Fiji could easily beat England at 4:00pm, then South  Africa could beat the powerful French.

The French would not like that not bit at ALL.

[harry_rag]

3 group runners up through to the semis, franking the view that the antepost 1/2 for any of them to make it was decent value.

My ratings have both of this weekend's favourites 17 points clear of their opponents. No bet for paper trade purposes.

Cheering on NZ and red cards from here on in. That said, I've sold the All Blacks' hotshots at 54 (Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, Mark Telea, Codie Taylor) and sub try minutes at 60 tonight. Sometimes a system obliges you to place bets that you instinctively expect to get chinned on.

Hills double up of Jordan and Savea both to score a try at 7/1 looks fair at worst, probably offering a bit of value, so I've had my tenner on that. That'll do unless anyone else is dangling any particularly juicy carrots.

[harry_rag]

51 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Hills double up of Jordan and Savea both to score a try at 7/1 looks fair at worst, probably offering a bit of value, so I've had my tenner on that. That'll do unless anyone else is dangling any particularly juicy carrots.

Annoyingly I'm invited to opt into a "stake a tenner, get a fiver freebie" offer after I've already placed that bet. No matter, I like the 29/10 for NZ to be shown the 1st yellow card so I've played that as well.

Shown 1st card in 7 of their last 14 games, twice red so 5 out of 14 for 1st yellow. Cocked up my tally for Argentina games but it was sub 2/1 for their opponents being shown the first card as well. Odds are decent enough anyway before you factor in the freebie to use on another game.

[harry_rag]

"It is the rugby tonight and it would be a major upset if England can turn over South Africa. I’m just banking on Owen Farrell kicking a few goals and better still a few drop goals as three in the match is 50/1. I’m sure  you can get better odds but one is 5/2 two is 12/1 and so on. Farrell is 3/1 for a max of a tenner to score just 10points and 6/4 otherwise. And 6/5 to score 9 + and it is those fine margins which just might land the cash."

Courtesy of @Sporting Sam over in the racing forum. Copied across to here as it's looks a decent angle for the game. Will be taking a look later but am already inclined towards 4/1 for a yellow card and England try in each half but need to check the maths a bit more.

Profit last night; hotshots went over but no subs scored a try. NZ (somewhat improbably) ended up with the first yellow. Shame that Savea couldn't cap a decent game with a try to go with those scored by Jordan and land the 7/1 double.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Will be taking a look later but am already inclined towards 4/1 for a yellow card and England try in each half but need to check the maths a bit more.

Taken it for the tenner allowed with Hills (it's a double odds offer). I don't really fancy the England try element that strongly but I think the doubling of the odds makes it just about a clear value bet. PP have boosted the England try in each half to 9/4 (I doubt you'll find better) and if you multiply that by 1.5 for the yellow (far better than you're likely to get) then you still land short of a 4/1 shot. Will do for an interest and use of the free bet earned last night.

I've also sold SA hotshots at 44 (Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Cheslin Kolbe, Cobus Reinach) as a routine sell. I've placed 1000s of such bets over the last few years and you definitely see them from a different perspective when you're watching the event (which I rarely do). Hotshots not too bad (the players can get subbed off and a try never costs more than 25 points) but sub try minutes is less fun; more of them coming on all the time and every try costing more money the later it gets. No wonder it's so profitable to sell them!

Will see if anything else appeals including those Owen Farrell related bets.

[harry_rag]

4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Farrell is 3/1 for a max of a tenner to score just 10points

Max of a quid unfortunately but taken it. A few others for interest.

Farrell MotM at 22/1 and him to score a drop goal in an England win at 25/1, Farrell & Libbok 12+ points each at 13/2 and Arendse try at 6/4 for the meagre stake allowed. Game could go a lot of ways but, if England are to pull off an upset, the Farrell angles seem to make sense. 

[Sporting Sam]

How did you go with the rugby Harry?

[harry_rag]

15 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:

How did you go with the rugby Harry?

Not as well as I’d have done if England had managed to hold on unfortunately! Cost me a definite 25/1 winner and a probable 22/1 (Farrell MotM). Definitely a case of the bets adding to my enjoyment of the game though and an angle I wouldn’t have thought of otherwise so thanks for that. (And let’s not forget the whopping quid I managed to get on that 3/1 boost.) Mild regret that I didn’t KISS and take the 11/4 for a drop goal but a nice 44 point profit on the sell of SA hotshots. 

No doubt will have one or two bets on the remains game and am cheering on NZ and forlornly hoping for more red cards from an antepost perspective.

Feel free to stick anything you fancy in here ahead of the weekend’s games.

[Sporting Sam]

I’m very big on the body language exhibited by players during these matches as key indicators of whatever is happening in camp. The SA bl was not good at all. The England players did brilliantly but neither the captaincy nor the management was up to scratch on the night from the moment the names went on the team sheet . I’m not sure what is going on but I sense a massive feud between Borthwick and the Ford’s and I suspect the Farrells. There is a link to the Ford’s as mike has been involved in  the English set up in the past and will have lost his job when any broom came in. Ford was a Leicester player but left them go sale to sale. Borthwick was boss at Leicester. I’ve been at a loss to understand why ford was not considered after such a stunning opening. But I guess we won’t hear anything until the dust has been allowed to settle after the World Cup and if he deigns to play in the third place match. The non re deployment of smith for the semi and the non use of Arundell after his record five try haul was one of the England selection mysteries finally made all too obvious by the petulant sending on of George Ford in near injury time in the semi final.
New Zealand are hungry and eager to make payback for  the last time these two sides met in the final. The blacks suffered “food poisoning “ at a joburg MacDonald’s and preparation was disrupted and several players couldn’t play on the days. Food is now specially prepared and no risks are taken on where the food is coming from. But there appeared to be massive discord in the boks camp and cracks became fissures during the semi final as even the captain was not safe from the substitution chop which is unprecedented in world sport. I don’t think the cliques can be smoothed over in time for the final and the all blacks will confirm their status as the Brazil of rugby union.

They are given +1 in the hadicap @11/10 but can be backed to win outright.

NEW ZEALAND 

To win Union World Cup outright.

due to their ineptitude in getting experienced rugby World Cup odds compilers into those jobs, the bookies have copped a massive hiding in markets (especially specials) with punters able to supplement their main bets with anticipated winnings from the restricted specials regularly paying out. From up to 4/1 to £10  maximum stakes and where players have  been able to get on repeatedly on multiple accounts they have been bashed.

Will hopefully highlight such markets on both Friday and Saturday. 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Sporting Sam