Tennis Tips - August 7 - August 13

[CzechPunter]

Xinyu Wang to beat Makenna Jones 2-0 at 1.73 with William Hill

I'm going down to the ITF level for a pick today. Jones played an incredibly long match against Dolehide yesterday, and I reckon that she'll be quite tired. Moreover, I'd rate her a class below Wang as well, this is a top 300 player facing a top 100 one, so no surprises there. Should be straightforward for the talented Chinese lady.

[MJT]

ATP Cincinnati Qualifying
Thompson 2-0 v Muller 1.90, Bet365
Thompson has been playing some good tennis over the last couple of months. He lost in the final of Hertogenbosch & was unlucky to meet Djokovic so early on at Wimbledon. He had a good couple of wins in Washington over Mannarino & Eubanks. However, he would have been disappointed with his performance against Fritz in the 1/4 finals. Muller has lost all 3 matches since Wimbledon all in straight sets on clay & has not had any hard court matches since March. He did take a set off Murray at the start of the year in Doha but that is about the best he has performed on the surface for over 2 years. Thompson has been in good form & should win this one in straight sets.

WTA Montreal
Samsonova to beat Rybakina 1.91, Bet365
Not one for usually going against Rybakina due to her serve & powerful game but I think this is the right time. She has played an awful lot of tennis this week including her marathon 3 1/2 hour match last night which finished at 3am. She looked exhausted & in her previous match against Stephens took a MTO for a right shoulder issue. She served 7 double faults yesterday & a lot of forehand errors which would suggest the shoulder is not quite right. She also committed 80 unforced errors. To add to this Samsonova leads the head to head 2-0 including a 6-2 6-4 win in Tokoyo last year. In that match Rybakina failed to break & won only 38% 2nd serves. If her shoulder issue is still bothering her the 2nd serve is likely to be punished again. Even a fresh & fully fit Rybakina & this match should be close given the similar aggressive play styles. With the fatigue factor along with the shoulder issue & at these odds I feel Samsonova is worth a play here.

[CzechPunter]

Unlucky with Wang not converting a MB 😕 Calling it quits this week with Cincy coming up next!

[Torque]

It's been a strange week. I can't remember the last time there was such a concentration of short odds losers.

[MJT]

Yeah been some awful results this week. Look at the serving stats in the Thompson v Muller match, especially the 1st/2nd sets. Was like something from the WTA!

[MJT]

WTA Montreal was a complete mess yesterday as well.

Surely they must have known the poor weather due? Why play one semi final and then abandon the next. Pegula now gets some nice rest before the final and meanwhile the winner of Samsonova/Rybakina will potentially have a long match before then having to play the final just hours later.

I should have looked at the weather as annoyingly this has now given Rybakina extra time to recover from her previous late marathon match. Also gives her injured shoulder some further rest as well. 

Will likely still be close based on the head to heads and how well Samsonova has been playing but certainly takes away some of the advantage.

[MJT]

Tiafoe v Griekspoor Over 22.5 Games 1.86, Unibet (NAP)
Tiebreak in the match 2.23, Unibet
Expecting this to a close match with the possibility of 3 sets and tie breaks. Not been at all impressed with Tiafoe over recent matches in his loses to Dimitrov, Evans & Raonic. Griekspoor had some great results in Washington including against the in form Monfils & Fritz. His loss to Zverev in Toronto was probably expected given his run in Washington. Despite this he still made it competitive losing 6-4 7-6 with only 1 break of serve all match. Not expecting many breaks in this one either so a tie break certainly has a good chance.

Shelton v Eubanks Over 24.5 1.85, Pinnacle
Another close match expected here. Would be very surprised if there is not at least 1 tie break and/or 3 sets. Head to head is 2-1 to Shelton all very close matches. Most recent was on grass in June finished 6-7 6-4 7-6 with just 1 break of serve all match. Previous 2 matches before that also both included at least 1 tie break. Expecting this to be a very serve dominated match so the overs is the call in this one.

Other plays:
Gasquet to beat Mannarino 2.43, Unibet
Kubler -1.5 Games v Lajovic 1.91, Pinnacle

Long Shot:
Huesler to beat Thompson 3.20, Unibet

[MJT]

A massive match for both players & a first Masters 1000 title on the line so I expect both players to feel the nerves. Sinner will need to improve his 1st serve percentage which has been below 50% in his last 2 victories. Otherwise this will allow De Minaur plenty of chances to get into rallies. Sinner has the better serve & more power so it will be interesting to see how this matches up against the excellent movement of De Minaur. Sinner leads the head to head 4-0 & should win this again but it may not be easy given the excellent wins for De Minaur so far this week. I believe there will be breaks from both players in each set so I like the 3.5 line for Sinner. I also expect at least 1 of the players to hit a minimum of 3 double faults given how much is at stake, especially if Sinner continues to have a 1st serve percentage below 50%. So will take a small play on both here as this could easily hit if this match is close.

Sinner Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve 2.10, Bet365
Sinner Over 2.5 Double Faults 2.0, Bet365
De Minaur Over 2.5 Double Faults 2.10, Bet365