Racing Chat - Friday April 28th

[The Brigadier]

ITV show six races on Friday with four coming from an excellent flat card at Sandown which features three Group races and on which they will be racing on testing ground with the official call being heavy (soft in places). A lot further north and we have a brace of races from Perth racing on officially good (good to soft in places) ground. Here’s my thoughts on the six contests.

 

Perth 13:30

The first of two handicaps shown by ITV today is this 2M class 3 handicap hurdle which sees 8 runners facing the starter. Nick Alexander’s Ginger Mail arrives here in good form having finished runner up on his last two starts and sports first time cheek pieces today. He has to give weight to all of his seven rivals however. Ruth Jefferson’s Inca Prince has fallen to a winning mark and in a first time visor could be dangerous although the one I like is Lucinda Russell’s Cuban Cigar who if in the same form as his recent Musselburgh win in a handicap a grade higher than todays should be thereabouts. Raised 4lb for that victory he will be ridden by the useful 5lb conditional jockey Patrick Wadge. Russell has her team in fine form scoring with a double at Perth on Wednesday.

With Glentruan down to run on Thursday this isn’t an each way race as his possible defection would leave just seven runners so we’ll go with small win only stakes wager on Cuban Cigar.

 

CUBAN CIGAR 1 point win @ 9/2 BetVictor

 

Sandown 13:50

A disappointing turnout of just five, due to the testing conditions no doubt, for the 1M bet365 Esher Cup Handicap a class 2 event for three year old which is always worth following throughout the season.

Top weight and favourite here is the Charlie Appleby trained Local Dynasty who won 3 of his 4 starts as a juvenile and holds a Group 2 Dante entry next month at York. He’s already a listed winner and most importantly has won on soft ground so these conditions shouldn’t hold no fear for him. He has a big chance and will be hard to beat.

Marco Botti’s Legend Of Leroy’s is also making his handicap debut and his maiden victory last season came in soft ground. He’s already had a run this flat season when third to the smart Slipofthepen on the all-weather 18 days ago.

Physique is trained by the father and son combo of Paul and Oliver Cole and is another one who’s proven already in soft ground having won a novices’ stakes at Newmarket last backend. Jack Channon’s Metal Merchant is hard to fancy having never raced in this type of terrain whilst Charlie Hills’ Saxon King maybe the biggest threat to the favourite having scored last October in heavy ground at Haydock and makes his handicap debut here. Not a great deal of value but the favourite Local Dynasty can take this with William Buick on board.

 

LOCAL DYNASTY 2 points win @ 11/8 Betfred

 

Perth 14:05

A good sized field of 14 line up for the class 3 BetVictor Highland National Handicap Chase run over 3M 6 1/2F. Several have chances with amongst the front few in the betting the Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero’s promising Concetto who’s won 2 of his 3 starts over fences at up to three miles. He is trying a new trip today but does shape like an out and out stayer and has claims under Fergus Gregory.

Another where there maybe stamina doubts about is Rose Dobbin’s Gentleman De Mai who’s yet to race beyond three miles but like Concetto is young enough to possibly stay this extreme trip.

Lucinda Russell has her string in excellent form and was amongst the winners here on Wednesday and saddles a brace here in the shape of Return Fire (Patrick Wadge) and Destiny Is All (Derek Fox). The latter interests me the most as his career best two runs have come on his last runs and proved his stamina with a fine 7L second to course specialist Volcano at Warwick last time over 3M 5F. In a very tight race I’ll take him to oblige.

 

DESTINY IS ALL 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Sandown 14:25

Another small field of just four this time go to post for the Group 3 bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes run over 1m 1F 209 yards. Owen Burrows’ Anmaat who runs in the Shadwell Stud colours was a much improved horse last season winning the John Smiths Handicap on his seasonal re-appearance prior to Group 3 at Haydock and Group 2 at Longchamp victories. The latter victory was gained in heavy ground so today’s terrain should hold no fear although he has to shoulder a 5lb penalty here.

Charlie Appleby’s Derby winner from 2021 Adayar has to carry no penalty here so is effectively rated 8lb superior to Anmaat and will be hard to beat. He has form in the mud and was last seen when chasing home the smart Bay Bridge in Ascot’s Champion Stakes last October. A genuine Group 1 horse and ridden by William Buick he should be winning here.

His stable mate Highland Avenue, ridden by James Doyle, has 17lb to find on official ratings and following an absence of 417 days is very unlikely to worry his stable companion.

Sir Michael Stoute saddles Regal Reality who should go the ground and ridden by Ryan Moore has a squeak but he too has 12lb to find with Adayar who is too short to back but maybe a straight forecast for him to beat Anmaat is the call.

 

Sandown 15:00

The bet365 Mile is a Group 2 contest for 4 year olds and upwards which has attracted a field of seven.

David Simcock’s Light Infantry is the highest rated of these and has good form on soft ground. Runner up in two Group 1’s at Deauville last Summer he is the one to beat if tuned up for this first run of the season here. Charlie Hill’s Mutasaabeq has a 3lb penalty to shoulder for a Group 2 victory at Newmarket last Autumn which isn’t ideal whilst Sir Michael Stoute’s Potapova is the only mare in the race and most importantly the only runner who is untested on a soft surface so can be overlooked for that reason.

Andrew Balding’s Imperial Fighter ran a shocker on his re-appearance with his handler saying afterwards that the colt didn’t handle the soft ground despite having shown in the past he goes on it.

Migration ran out a good winner of the Lincoln on the opening day of the turf season at Doncaster and this represents a step up in grade for him though he adores soft ground. Angel Bleu is another who needs the mud and I can see him running well. A dual Group 1 winner on very soft ground as a juvenile he has to put a rather limp effort last time in France behind him but with Frankie Dettori booked he’s maybe the value play here as he’s sure to be straight now following two runs this season whilst Light Infantry hasn’t been seen for 181 days. William Hill and bet365 are paying three places in this seven runner contest so let’s go each way with the extra place.

 

ANGEL BLEU 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5 123

 

Sandown 15:35

Only five go to post for this years renewal of the 1m 2F bet365 Classic Trial, a Group 3 three year old contest which has thrown up some smart middle distance horses over the years and was won last year by Westover whilst in 2021 the Derby winner Adayar was runner up.

Four of the five participants this year hold the Epsom Derby entry with Andrew Balding’s easy Kempton winner Relentless Voyager being the odd one out. He has officially 22lb to find with the top rated Arrest and is hard to fancy.

Arrest is the only one of the quintet who has actually raced on soft ground when chasing home Dubai Mile in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud in France last October. That’s the best piece of form on hand here although I am very worried about the current form of John and Thady Gosden’s. Despite taking the Epsom Derby Trial earlier in the week with Epictetus many of their better three year olds have been beaten out of sight and it would be a brave man taking a short price about one of theirs at present.

Sir Michael Stoute saddles an interesting runner in Circle Of Fire, a Salisbury winner for The King last September but this represents a big jump in class and is unproven on a soft surface.

Ralph Beckett mentioned his Salt Bay as a horse he had high hopes for on the excellent ‘Luck On Sunday’ Racing TV programme last weekend and having finished third in the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint Cloud last October on heavy ground should have no issues with the ground.

That leaves us with the Charlie Appleby trained Flying Honours who there’s been very good gallop reports for this Spring. A Group 3 winner as a juvenile at Newmarket he can run well but has yet to be tested on a soft terrain and my preference here is Salt Bay for Ralph Beckett who took this last year with Westover.

 

SALT BAY 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

 

[kensland]

Ralph Beckett Patent. 

3.00. Angel Bleu        13/2

3.35. Salt Bay              9/4

4.10. Feud                    7/2

stk 3.50.     rtn 98.84.

-------------------------------

Single 

Sandown. 

1.15. Looking for Lynda           7/1

stk. 5.00     rtn 40.00. 

Good luck all. 

[Sporting Sam]

Just one Japan selection today.

Kasamatsu 8.50

A Shin Upas

each way

This runner has gone to a new yard. Old yard operated a run cycle which involved a regular mid month run followed by a late month run resulting in three wins in the pattern. "Teens and twenties". Winning on the twenties each time.

New yard attempted to change the cycle to teen win and just failed on debut here by a neck. They may have to start again now and 'reverse' that cycle. But if too much hasn't been taken out of the horse , might just go close today. Otherwise it is see you next month.

Forecast to be 16/1 but could as easily be odds on!

[calva decoy]

Sandown abandoned , yet Esher is in a drought area , you couldn't make it up could you 🤔

[Sporting Sam]

15 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

Just one Japan selection today.

Kasamatsu 8.50

A Shin Upas

each way

This runner has gone to a new yard. Old yard operated a run cycle which involved a regular mid month run followed by a late month run resulting in three wins in the pattern. "Teens and twenties". Winning on the twenties each time.

New yard attempted to change the cycle to teen win and just failed on debut here by a neck. They may have to start again now and 'reverse' that cycle. But if too much hasn't been taken out of the horse , might just go close today. Otherwise it is see you next month.

Forecast to be 16/1 but could as easily be odds on!

I have added 

Dream Pollux each way to the selection 

[alexcaruso808]

26 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

Just one Japan selection today.

Kasamatsu 8.50

A Shin Upas

each way

This runner has gone to a new yard. Old yard operated a run cycle which involved a regular mid month run followed by a late month run resulting in three wins in the pattern. "Teens and twenties". Winning on the twenties each time.

New yard attempted to change the cycle to teen win and just failed on debut here by a neck. They may have to start again now and 'reverse' that cycle. But if too much hasn't been taken out of the horse , might just go close today. Otherwise it is see you next month.

Forecast to be 16/1 but could as easily be odds on!

Thanks Sam, nice way to start the day.  🏆

[Sporting Sam]

9 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks Sam, nice way to start the day.  🏆

Thanks Alex, feedback is everything.

Much appreciated.

[LEE-GRAYS]

Ok £12.80 down after 3 days time for the fight back 🤞

[kensland]

Fergal O'brien Patent. 

2.40. Perth. Charles St      10/11

5.45. South. Sunday Soldier       9/1

6.25. Chep.  Nothing to Ask       10/3

stk 3.50    rtn 95.50.

Good luck all. 

 

[Sporting Sam]

Unexpected additional selection.

Sonoda 

1045

Shippu Jinrai

Each way

Nedda

Win

[Sporting Sam]

18 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

Unexpected additional selection.

Sonoda 

1045

Shippu Jinrai

Each way

Nedda

Win

Shippu Jinrai

Was third sp 17/2 was 11/1 at time of selection. Nedda was fourth. Pleased with that as it ' proves' ( to me) a branch of physics I'm researching. There is no other way I could make the two choices based on anything else (other than form.) That really is that for the Japan picks today 👍.

[kensland]

Patent. 

3.50. Perth.  The Wolf      3/1    1st 

3.15. Perth.  Bridge North     15/8     fell 

8.10. Chep.  Equinus            9/4

stk 3.50    rtn 40.67.

Good luck all. 

Edited April 28, 2023 by kensland

[Darran]

I rarely tip in Irish hunter chases, but we have the big one at Punchestown this evening and after the shambles of Premier Magic and Shantou Flyer not being allowed to run, we have an all-Irish affair. We have 4 runners from Cheltenham with the 2^nd Its On The Line, 5^th Chris's Dream, 7^th Vaucelet and Billaway who fell. The last two finished 2^nd and 1^st in this last year and whilst a mistake at the last didn't help Vaucelet, I still think Billaway would have won. I think Vaucelet can get his revenge here though and looks the most likely winner to me. Going into Cheltenham I was concerned with the fact he hadn't run since Boxing Day and I think that told late on. Also, as we have seen the trainer's horses haven't really been seeing their races off and it is interesting to see the trainer say he came back from Cheltenham a bit sick. Given that was the case and he was only beaten 10L it was a huge run really. 

 

Billaway finally hit the deck at Cheltenham after so many runs of making mistakes and not falling. He then went to Fairyhouse and was 2^nd to Annamix who caused a huge upset. I'm still not sure it was the pace that Ferns Lock and Billaway went that led to that result because Ferns Lock to me seemed to be doing what he had been doing the rest of the season. I suspect that he probably wasn't 100% and as I say the trainer's horses weren't finishing their races off. Granted Billaway might have paid for chasing him, but you just get the feeling he isn't quite as good as he was and I'd be a little surprised if Vaucelet wasn't able to finish in front of him. 

 

Its On The Line flew home to finish 2^nd at Cheltenham, but this won't be as strong a test of stamina and he has been to Aintree as well where he fell at Becher's after being well back in the field. I think Vaucelet can reverse the form.

 

I also think Chris's Dream can reverse the form and he might just end up being the biggest danger to the favourite. I thought he ran a cracking race at Cheltenham to finish 5th. That was only his 3^rd run since January 22 so he may come on for it again as well. His young jockey is yet to have a ride over fences under rules, but he has ridden A Dream To Share very well to win here and at Cheltenham.

 

Willie Mullins was shocked that Annamix beat Billaway and I'm not sure he will do the same here although it would be folly to totally rule him out. Lough Derg Spirit ran a cracker at Aintree when 3^rd to Famous Clermont. I'm not sure he can win this, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ran on into a place.

 

I'm going with Vaucelet to go one better than last year and finally give his trainer one of the big 3 hunter chases. I will also be having a small saver on Chris's Dream as there was plenty to like about the Cheltenham run and he could improve for it.

 

Vaucelet 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/4)

Chris's Dream 0.5pts @ 5/1 with William Hill and BetVictor who are 11/2 (take up to 4/1)

[black rabbit]

Riviere D'etel                                    4 50 Pun/                 1/20th  of a pt win       12/1

Zanahiya                                           5 25 Pun/                  1/40th of a pt win        33/1

Innisfree Lad                                   2 05 Prt/                     1/40th of a pt ew         25/1

Chateau Elan                                   3 40 Pun/                   1/40th of a pt win        20/1

Edited April 28, 2023 by black rabbit

[Sporting Sam]

After I've had a run of winners I call it

"after the Lord mayor's show " so beware and because of that very few, selections coming up.

Doncaster 1.40

Three darts here.

Impossible to assess where the pace will come from or who is ready to rock and roll.

If the right horse is in the race that horse can win from anywhere.

Using my own methods I've come up with form.

Hoots 

Win

On a roll and good jockey on board.

On the draw data

Average winning stall using my own calculations comes out at stall 5

Obee jo

Each way

Down below best winning mark and a long time since a win and long lay off to contend with.

Using free energy ( Alexander method) A horse has dropped out above this one and the energy that  that horse would have put in has to go somewhere as it has already been factored into the race.

The new top weight

Asmund 

Each way

Only course and distance winner  has some form with give, but not much.

[Sporting Sam]

 

Perth 2.40

Figures

21222423224-222

Charles Street

Win 

Won't get a better chance of winning here.

Nearly a stone clear of the field.

Sea prince 

Each way

 

[Sporting Sam]

Doncaster 2.55

Royal Dress

Win

High quality second to midnight mile over course and distance puts this  runner ahead of the pack, if fit and ready now..

[fd1972uk]

Vaucelet and grandero bello at Pun today.

 

Lhad earlier couple on 205 perth, still running I believe.

[Sporting Sam]

 

Perth 3.15

A few have dropped out of this contest.

BRIDGE NORTH

Win

(Or places three places in a five runner race!!)

Owes me little and could confirm the showing of his chase win up just three pounds. Some firms have left the door wide open if you'd simply like to back him to place as there are only five at post and they go three places.

Edited April 28, 2023 by sporting sam

[fd1972uk]

Oh forgot jet fighter at pun 340

[Sporting Sam]

Punchestown 4.15

Carrig Sam

Authorized art

Both each way

Two outsiders here with chances with Danny Mullins on board the former.

The other runner an in and out performer for Arthur Moore who has the talent....

[Sporting Sam]

 

4.35

Southwell 

 

MIDNIGHT MARY

Win without /walk in clover  at 11/10

Walk in clover tries to offset an unraised mark while midnight Mary drops in class here. She might take advantage of walk in clover bounces.

But walkin clover is theoretically well in by over four pounds....

Edited April 28, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

 

4.50

Punchestown 

 

River d'tat.

Each way

Impervious

Win

Impervious impossible to oppose but River d'tat no back number and fell with more to offer at Cheltenham 

 

[Sporting Sam]

Doncaster 5.05

Star angel

Win

Prince ABU

Each way 

[yossa6133]

Soul Icon 7:00 Chepstow. Probably didn't appreciate the rain softened ground on reappearance. Worth a chance here at 5/1 to show he can operate off this kind of mark. Likes to front run and that works well at Chepstow.

 

Folded pretty tamely. One day I will pick a winner.

Edited April 28, 2023 by yossa6133

[Sporting Sam]

David pipe's runner

THANKSFORTHEHELP

Win

Southwell 6.50

Favourite for the pertemps at Cheltenham.

This could be a recovery mission as JP MacManus horse rides here in a big drop in class.

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

12 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Ok £12.80 down after 3 days time for the fight back 🤞

1place -£18.60 1 day to go 😢