BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - March 2023

[Johnrobertson]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My monies on @Johnrobertsonhanging in there with shrewdly chosen odds on shots

Thanks @The Equaliser but I think the king of the short price ones @Alastair could still do it, I am sure he has a nice little secret short price system, his past results are impressive and @Wanderluststill very much in there with a lovely profit/strike rate this month.

[Alastair]

1 hour ago, Johnrobertson said:

Thanks @The Equaliser but I think the king of the short price ones @Alastair could still do it, I am sure he has a nice little secret short price system, his past results are impressive and @Wanderluststill very much in there with a lovely profit/strike rate this month.

Just to confirm I don't have a short price system. In the real world I don't back horses at prices shorter than 6/4 .

[Wildgarden]

13 minutes ago, Alastair said:

Just to confirm I don't have a short price system. In the real world I don't back horses at prices shorter than 6/4 .

Your strike is so good may be worth it but agree ? it would be pointless unless u really have that edge

[The Equaliser]

7 hours ago, Johnrobertson said:

Thanks @The Equaliser but I think the king of the short price ones @Alastair could still do it, I am sure he has a nice little secret short price system, his past results are impressive and @Wanderluststill very much in there with a lovely profit/strike rate this month.

Looks like you are still in with a good chance as all your main challengers lost today.  The only bummer is that you dropped a point.  

It is quite easy to select horses that are at very short odds and have an excellent chance of winning ?.  All you have to do is check through the races with short-priced favourites and make a note of all the horses that are at least 10 points clear of all other rivals in the RPR ratings.  Obviously, one would exclude any race with some un-raced so-called wonder horse that is supposed to win by a country mile.  I checked today and found that in the 2.15 Sed Forcing Bull 1/3 was rated 125 v 99 RPR won by 12 lengths and in the 4.45 Lud Tightenrourbelts 30/100 126 v 112 RPR won by 18 lengths.

Further, @gbettle had a formula that he published here for short-priced horses in accumulators which seemed to work quite well.  I'll try and find it for you if you are interested. 

I hope that @gbettleis OK as I haven't seen him make any posts for a while.

I hope this helps

[MCLARKE]

Fantastic tipping today with 59 points profit, led by @rolandcooperwho leaps to the top of the table with Chepstow winner Ring The Moon. @Rainbowalso selected the same horse.

 

[Johnrobertson]

On 3/23/2023 at 6:44 PM, The Equaliser said:

Looks like you are still in with a good chance as all your main challengers lost today.  The only bummer is that you dropped a point.  

It is quite easy to select horses that are at very short odds and have an excellent chance of winning ?.  All you have to do is check through the races with short-priced favourites and make a note of all the horses that are at least 10 points clear of all other rivals in the RPR ratings.  Obviously, one would exclude any race with some un-raced so-called wonder horse that is supposed to win by a country mile.  I checked today and found that in the 2.15 Sed Forcing Bull 1/3 was rated 125 v 99 RPR won by 12 lengths and in the 4.45 Lud Tightenrourbelts 30/100 126 v 112 RPR won by 18 lengths.

Further, @gbettle had a formula that he published here for short-priced horses in accumulators which seemed to work quite well.  I'll try and find it for you if you are interested. 

I hope that @gbettleis OK as I haven't seen him make any posts for a while.

I hope this helps

 

Lovely thanks for that @The Equaliser Some interesting ideas, will have a look for @gbettle formula. 

Did you see the short price one I tipped Telhimlisten race ? Looked like the jockey jumped off when well clear after the last, never seen anything like it. ?

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Johnrobertson said:

 

Lovely thanks for that @The Equaliser Some interesting ideas, will have a look for @gbettle formula. 

Did you see the short price one I tipped Telhimlisten race ? Looked like the jockey jumped off when well clear after the last, never seen anything like it. ?

I didn't see the race but it sounds unbelievable; but that's racing for you these days

I believe that @gbettle's method was as follows:

The system is:

1. from all UK & Eire races, find the favourites;

2. compare them with the RP Naps table, found here

3. take any favourite that has either 0 or 1 tip from the RP Naps Table - we now have a set of candidates for my daily trixie

4. filter that set of candidates by 0 or 1 tip only, and then take the lowest 3.

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Hope this helps

 

 

[MCLARKE]

Thursday was good but Friday was even better with 78 points of profit, led by @Craig bluenosewith 50/1 Nicky Henderson trained On The Blind Side at Newbury and  @Gary66finding 33/1 Newcastle old timer Atholblair Boy, also picked by @justanotherpunter

 

 

[MCLARKE]

Most winners

@Johnrobertsonlooking in a strong position

 

[MCLARKE]

[MCLARKE]

[MCLARKE]

Most winners

@Johnrobertsonseems to be playing a waiting game

[MCLARKE]

[MCLARKE]

Another good day led by @Craig bluenosewho moves to within 2 points of the leader with 40/1 Wolverhampton winner Dodgy Bob

[MCLARKE]

Most winners

@Johnrobertsonpicks the short priced winner to get past the £10 mark but may still need to play with @Alastairhaving a mathematical chance of catching him. Some of the others could still win if the top 2 make a mess of it !

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Most winners

@Johnrobertsonpicks the short priced winner to get past the £10 mark but may still need to play with @Alastairhaving a mathematical chance of catching him. Some of the others could still win if the top 2 make a mess of it !

Fascinating.  I think that if I were @JohnrobertsonI would sit tight and not play tomorrow at least.  We all know that @Alastaircan successfully pick a 3/1 + priced winner when need be but this of course carries an increased risk of not being successful. The most winners is indeed a great part of the comp IMO

[Fist2k8]

Doesn't impress me one bit to be honest. Get to 10 points then put up the lowest priced horse you can find every day.......bit of a joke imo.

 

[justanotherpunter]

14 minutes ago, Fist2k8 said:

Doesn't impress me one bit to be honest. Get to 10 points then put up the lowest priced horse you can find every day.......bit of a joke imo.

 

I would raise the minimum profit for most winners to say £20 or more to encourage / discourage only posting odds on shots that are the lowest daily SP

Only my opinion - seems to me a sensible option??

[Zilzalian]

Personally i think the most winners comp is what it is but i have no interest in trying to win 10 points a month i have better things to do with my time however i do like looking at the different strategies that often have to be played at the end of the month to try to win, Its almost the opposite of the naps table where every bugger chucks in 100/1 shots on the last few days. i do think raising the 10 point threshold to say 15 points might make it more interesting. As would raising the Naps comp from 15 selections to 20 selections per month. Either way that's just my casual opinion not a request, I try to post a nap every day just because personally  i think its in the spirit of the competition "nap of the day competition"

[MCLARKE]

We all have different strategies, generally the naps comp is won by someone who has picked 1 or 2 long priced winners, the most winners comp by someone who has picked a lot of short priced winners.

To achieve £10 profit in itself is no easy task, it represents a return of 30% which I suggest nobody on here gets anyway near. Lat month only 11 out 83 achieved the £10 mark.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, justanotherpunter said:

I would raise the minimum profit for most winners to say £20 or more to encourage / discourage only posting odds on shots that are the lowest daily SP

Only my opinion - seems to me a sensible option??

Well said.  I do believe that PL best tipsters are well up to achieving 20 points on a regular monthly basis.  I can fully understand why entrants play it shrewdly when the 10 points profit level is reached, it is only natural when one is trying to win a comp.  However, despite all this the "most winners" aspect of the nap comp is regularly the most exciting part of the comp because as is often the case one sees someone pick an extreme oustsider to win the main comp, which is pretty boring 

[The Equaliser]

3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

We all have different strategies, generally the naps comp is won by someone who has picked 1 or 2 long priced winners, the most winners comp by someone who has picked a lot of short priced winners.

To achieve £10 profit in itself is no easy task, it represents a return of 30% which I suggest nobody on here gets anyway near. Lat month only 11 out 83 achieved the £10 mark.

I think that £10 is too low to get the best out of our best tipsters

[MCLARKE]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well said.  I do believe that PL best tipsters are well up to achieving 20 points on a regular monthly basis.  I can fully understand why entrants play it shrewdly when the 10 points profit level is reached, it is only natural when one is trying to win a comp.  However, despite all this the "most winners" aspect of the nap comp is regularly the most exciting part of the comp because as is often the case one sees someone pick an extreme oustsider to win the main comp, which is pretty boring 

20 points is a return of 60%, if one could achieve that sort of return on a regular basis they would be on a yacht in the carribean rathen than putting up tips on here !

If it is the most exciting part of the comp then why change it ?

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

20 points is a return of 60%, if one could achieve that sort of return on a regular basis they would be on a yacht in the carribean rathen than putting up tips on here !

If it is the most exciting part of the comp then why change it ?

Agreed, why fix something that isn't broken is a good philosophy, we can all come up with different "ideas" but at the end of the day we would just be being picky.

[justanotherpunter]

23 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well said.  I do believe that PL best tipsters are well up to achieving 20 points on a regular monthly basis.  I can fully understand why entrants play it shrewdly when the 10 points profit level is reached, it is only natural when one is trying to win a comp.  However, despite all this the "most winners" aspect of the nap comp is regularly the most exciting part of the comp because as is often the case one sees someone pick an extreme oustsider to win the main comp, which is pretty boring 

"despite all this the "most winners" aspect of the nap comp is regularly the most exciting part of the comp ????? 

I can't see how this can in any way be exciting - who can get up first and enter the lowest price and hope that no one betters it ???

I'ts a bit like spewing in the bog after a heavy night - I've seen all this before only wearing different colours - where is the challenge in selecting the lowest odds every day and how can this be exciting.

I regularly follow some of the most popular punters naps and I can regularly make some profit along the way - I also aim to try and be profitable if I can and make my selections with this aim in mind.

I never bet at odds on as this is the quickest way to the poorhouse for most people - I instantly junk all odds on selections that appear here and deposit them in file 13.

I know some people find odds on selections exciting  - bur I appear to have found a life without them - each to his own I suppose 

[The Equaliser]

Eureka!!

To negate some of the lottery aspect of winning the main comp might I suggest a minimum of 3 winners in any one month.  This equates to about 10 % winners and bearing in mind that members can back each way I feel that it is not too onerous a target

[The Equaliser]

15 minutes ago, justanotherpunter said:

"despite all this the "most winners" aspect of the nap comp is regularly the most exciting part of the comp ????? 

I can't see how this can in any way be exciting - who can get up first and enter the lowest price and hope that no one betters it ???

I'ts a bit like spewing in the bog after a heavy night - I've seen all this before only wearing different colours - where is the challenge in selecting the lowest odds every day and how can this be exciting.

I regularly follow some of the most popular punters naps and I can regularly make some profit along the way - I also aim to try and be profitable if I can and make my selections with this aim in mind.

I never bet at odds on as this is the quickest way to the poorhouse for most people - I instantly junk all odds on selections that appear here and deposit them in file 13.

I know some people find odds on selections exciting  - bur I appear to have found a life without them - each to his own I suppose 

I do agree with you.  It is very boring when our esteemed contributors reach the £10 profit and keep chucking in long odds on shots.  Maybe @Zilzalianwas right by suggesting £15 or even possibly £12 but I feel that it should be raised

[The Equaliser]

50 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

20 points is a return of 60%, if one could achieve that sort of return on a regular basis they would be on a yacht in the carribean rathen than putting up tips on here !

If it is the most exciting part of the comp then why change it ?

Hang on a minute we are talking about £20 not 20 points, there is a world of difference between the two

[MCLARKE]

Just now, The Equaliser said:

Hang on a minute we are talking about £20 not 20 points, there is a world of difference between the two

I think it's the same, I think we assume 1 point = £1

[The Equaliser]

27 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I think it's the same, I think we assume 1 point = £1

Yes, but the number of winners to get to a £20 profit can be far fewer