Racing Chat-Tuesday 3rd January.

[kensland]

Wolverhampton. 

Double. 

5.30. Al Khawaneej Storm       17/2          -----Sea the Moon  half brother to 1m 4f /  1m  6f  AW winner Emirate Empire and winner in Bahrain , out of 9 4f- 1m 2f winner  (  including AW ) holds a Derby entry.            Unpl.

6.30. My Boy Jack Boy             5/2.

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Musselburgh. 

D.McCain  Double. 

1.15. Barrichello     7/2     2nd 

1.45. Creative Control       9/4     2nd 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by kensland

[jonjo]

Some Stable Switchers tomorrow:

 

Valkyrian (IRE)	1.30 Chelmsford City	11/2
Minella Youngy (IRE)	12.15 Musselburgh	9/1
Kaths Toyboy	2.00 Chelmsford City	17/2
Amaysmont	3.00 Chelmsford City	17/2
Moon Over The Sea	6.00 Wolverhampton	12/1

Angel On High (IRE)	5.00 Wolverhampton	12/1
Bernard Spierpoint	8.00 Wolverhampton	4/1

Shantous Temple

12.45 Musselburgh

20/1

Good luck tomorrow folks whatever your back or lay.

[Sporting Sam]

Mussleburgh bumper 3.15

Olly Murphy's

Art of Authority

win 

 

Makes racecourse debut.

Won his point and form has been franked with the third winning since.

Changed hands twice since juvenile sale for 20k in France.

Finally to England after Irish points win for 200k in March.

Should get the better if ready to run shorter trip of Kingston Hill who was turned over by a runner who'd never completed his sole points start latest. Not certain to get sharper trip but has had the best part of a year to prepare and receives lots of weight here from the favourite. A defeat though not out of the question would not put the yard in a great light.

 

Wolves 7pm

Doctor Mozart

Win.

Given two months off since win.

Comes into this race for shrewd trainer and gets weight from the entire field. Can turn over the strong favourite and operates off near opening handicap mark if memory serves me right.

Added.

You might as well be hung for a lamb as a sheep, so at the available 8's I've gone each way. I doubt he'll go off at double figure odds once the bird has flown.

Edited January 3, 2023 by sporting sam

[Ryanpete]

Arthur's quay 2.45 muss

Act of authority 3.15 muss 

7/1 double currently boosted on bet365 

Good luck all

[MCLARKE]

D McCain Jnr runners

Musselburgh	1.15		Barrichello
Musselburgh	2.15		Killane
Musselburgh	3.15		Easter Junction

[MCLARKE]

@The EqualiserDo you not look at any of the other threads ?

On a previous thread looking at trainers

I've had a quick look at trainers based on last 6 years January data.

I've sorted by number of runners and then looked at those trainers with an AE greater than 1.02.

Nicky Henderson is top but has made a loss for the last 3 years so I'll pass him by. 

Next is Donald McCain Jnr with an AE of 1.21

I'll apply just 1 filter and exclude runners at more than 2m4f as his record for the longer distances is poor with an AE of 0.76

I'll also exclude those horses with forecast odds of 20/1 or higher as they also have a poor record

All bets will be recorded at BSP

Selections 1st January

Catterick	2.25		Whitehaven
Musselburgh	2.45		Nayati (Won, BSP 14.5)
Musselburgh	2.45		Collingham
Musselburgh	3.20		Gaelik Coast
Musselburgh	3.20		Navajo Pass
Catterick	3.35		Cartonne
Cheltenham	3.40		Dino Bellagio

[The Equaliser]

53 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

@The EqualiserDo you not look at any of the other threads ?

On a previous thread looking at trainers

I've had a quick look at trainers based on last 6 years January data.

I've sorted by number of runners and then looked at those trainers with an AE greater than 1.02.

Nicky Henderson is top but has made a loss for the last 3 years so I'll pass him by. 

Next is Donald McCain Jnr with an AE of 1.21

I'll apply just 1 filter and exclude runners at more than 2m4f as his record for the longer distances is poor with an AE of 0.76

I'll also exclude those horses with forecast odds of 20/1 or higher as they also have a poor record

All bets will be recorded at BSP

Selections 1st January

Catterick	2.25		Whitehaven
Musselburgh	2.45		Nayati (Won, BSP 14.5)
Musselburgh	2.45		Collingham
Musselburgh	3.20		Gaelik Coast
Musselburgh	3.20		Navajo Pass
Catterick	3.35		Cartonne
Cheltenham	3.40		Dino Bellagio

Thanks for the info.  Doesn't it make sense to post up this informative info on the thread that is currently being used before posting up selections? A bit like your 5 year old selections info. Has this expired now we are into the New Year? Or would it be good for PL members to carry on with it?

 

[MCLARKE]

44 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Thanks for the info.  Doesn't it make sense to post up this informative info on the thread that is currently being used before posting up selections? A bit like your 5 year old selections info. Has this expired now we are into the New Year? Or would it be good for PL members to carry on with it?

Fair point. I assumed that PL members looked at all at the races threads but maybe not.

Yes the 5yo system only applied to November / December, they are not profitable in January.

The next period that they have been profitable is July / August on the flat so I may resurrect it then.

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Thanks for the info.  Doesn't it make sense to post up this informative info on the thread that is currently being used before posting up selections? A bit like your 5 year old selections info. Has this expired now we are into the New Year? Or would it be good for PL members to carry on with it?

 

1st of Jan was a very good day for don mac when you consider he had the fc Nayati & Collingham (245 muss) £114.62. He might not have the class horses anymore but he is a bloody good trainer and placer of horses. The 5yo thread was quite useful i didnt back them all but i did a few where they matched my thinking and made a small profit.

 

[kensland]

Double. 

3.15. Muss. Easter Junction     3/1       unpl

7.30. Wolv.  Nacho                     9/2

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by kensland

[The Equaliser]

Looked at a lot of races for a "lay" bet at a reasonable price.  I wanted to lay Garde Des Champs in the first at Muss but it got withdrawn.  Since then I have selected two and they won so luckily didn't place the bets.  I fancied laying Dembe in the 5.00 at Wolves but at 4.3 v 5/2 & 11/4 doesn't look like value

Instead, I have gone for a "back" to "lay" bet in the 6.00 Wolves King Athelstan 2 pts win at 3.95 & 2 pts lay at 3.40 for a 1.08 profit if it wins.  It is currently 2/1 & 85/40 with the bookies  My "lay" price may be matched in the run-up to the race.  If it leads as it did in its last race then my price should get matched as long as it starts around 4.0

My Nap bet Russian Virtue has just won at Musselburgh.  Hats off to @The Brigadierfor providing PL members with another winner

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One 14% non-runner and Betfair drastically reduce the odds on my horse only to show a bigger increase now in its market price.  I forgot about theses little tricks that they get up to.  I have now cancelled the lay bet and re-instated it at 3.39 to try and get out at B/E. It was that or take a 0.50 pt loss

5.00 Wolv Dembe 2.04 Lay bet at 4.0 = +2 v - 6.12 should the horse win.  I have a few members selections playing for me in Queen Of Ipanema (Brig and Gower Ranger) Tiger Beetle (Trotter) and Jo Joe's stable mover Angel On High, with Young Fire not out of it either.  Hopefully, Billy is mainly there for Wakai Umi for his dad in the 7.00 ? 

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Billy got beat.  Not exactly Tom Marquand but did well.  At least I'm up atm.  I'll trade out of 6.00 race for a 0.50 loss.  = 1.50 profit on the day and about 3.50 pts MTD

I know this seem like small fry but I am determined to make a profit this year.  If I average just 1 pt per day I could be over 300 pts up by the end of the year ?

Edited January 3, 2023 by The Equaliser

[richard-westwood]

630 wolv 

Wee fat mac 8.0 3/1 

My boy Jack 8.0 5/1 

Bungle Bay   7.8 

Camachess   7.6 

Tricky race .....hardly anything between these 4 but the top 2 have a big draw advantage against the other 2 so I'll back both and hope it's decisive ...

4pt wins top 2 

 

 

 

[Sporting Sam]

Wolves 5pm

JUNEY 

Each way

 

Bookmakers are praying you ? take  the racing press's admonitions and back Jamie Spencer's latest bid for redemption on a steering job when he rides Snipers Eye.

If you've watched a few Tom cruise movies you'll know the plot.

Experienced jockey with his own ideas about the game, tries to win every race in the same fashion, won't take advice from anyone. He's been in the game too long to listen to anyone and one day he'll come good.

True, and at 160k at the breeze ups he should win.

JUNEY

Is bred to get the trip and he is the second foal to a dam whose first born has already won over the trip on debut.

 

 

[jonjo]

18 hours ago, jonjo said:

Some Stable Switchers tomorrow:

 

Valkyrian (IRE)	1.30 Chelmsford City	11/2
Minella Youngy (IRE)	12.15 Musselburgh	9/1
Kaths Toyboy	2.00 Chelmsford City	17/2
Amaysmont	3.00 Chelmsford City	17/2
Moon Over The Sea	6.00 Wolverhampton	12/1

Angel On High (IRE)	5.00 Wolverhampton	12/1
Bernard Spierpoint	8.00 Wolverhampton	4/1

Shantous Temple

12.45 Musselburgh

20/1

Good luck tomorrow folks whatever your back or lay.

Moon Over The Sea a nice winner returned at a Bfsp of 12.0.

[jonjo]

20 hours ago, jonjo said:

Some Stable Switchers tomorrow:

 

Valkyrian (IRE)	1.30 Chelmsford City	11/2
Minella Youngy (IRE)	12.15 Musselburgh	9/1
Kaths Toyboy	2.00 Chelmsford City	17/2
Amaysmont	3.00 Chelmsford City	17/2
Moon Over The Sea	6.00 Wolverhampton	12/1

Angel On High (IRE)	5.00 Wolverhampton	12/1
Bernard Spierpoint	8.00 Wolverhampton	4/1

Shantous Temple

12.45 Musselburgh

20/1

Good luck tomorrow folks whatever your back or lay.

Some gamble that on Bernard Spierpoint, won nicely but returned at a Bfsp of 1.7 ?