Tennis Tips - September 26 - October 2

[CzechPunter]

Well, now's certainly the time for such picks!

[Swiss Maestro]

It does not look good... Being broken in his first 2 games..? Cmon... 

[Swiss Maestro]

9 hours ago, Swiss Maestro said:

Jarry to beat Ruud at 5.00 with bet365 

I know it's a difficult one..., but I think the odds are not well placed. Ruud has just played the Laver Cup and this will be his first match here. Jarry, however, has already played 3 matches. The players he has faced are not elite players..., but he has won all of them in straight sets and his serve has not been broken yet. These courts are super fast and Jarry is enjoying them with his big serve.

As I said, it won't be easy and if it happens it probably will be via tie-breaks. Jarry needs to get to the last games with his serve intact, and if he does Ruud can get nervous and then Jarry will stand a chance..

Jarry took the second set but the bet was lost when Jarry was broke in the 6th game of the third set.

[Foo_Fighter]

Due to the expected impact of Hurricane Ian on South Carolina, the remainder of the #ATPChallenger event in Charleston has been canceled.

All players will receive ranking points and prize money for rounds reached. 

source: https://twitter.com/ATPChallenger/status/1575246481510043660?t=WjoFm5kmCXqh_oz9SXUVww&s=19

[MinellaWorksop]

Going for one today with:

Maria Sakkari 1.44 Bet365

In this WTA Parma Semi final clash against Kovinic I am siding with the favourite Sakkari.

Sakkari has been winning all her matches in this tournament 'ugly'. Conceding the first set in each game but then rallying back to win. Preferably this is displaying Miss Sakkari is in a great place mentally and will continue to show this good mental fortitude against today's opponent Kovinic. She will definitely require to as well, as Kovinic actually holds a 2-1 H2H advantage over Sakkari. So it will be fascinating to see how it all plays out in this beautiful game of sports betting.

[CzechPunter]

I agree on Sakkari, Kovinic always seems to be on the verge on a breakdown, and the fact that this is such a high profile clash should only contribute to that. 

[MinellaWorksop]

One for today that has captured my imagination:

Holger Rune 1.50 Bet365

Gentleman Rune faces Huesler in the final of ATP Sofia in what I feel is a fascinating matchup. Regular readers to any of my posts on here will notice that for me, rightly or wrongly, the sporting matchup/event has to capture my imagination and fascination and this is the one that stood out to me for the following reasons:

Rune like Sakkari yesterday has been winning 'tough' or 'ugly' as I called it yesterday. In that he has been losing the first set in some close fought battles yet he is displaying some wonderful mental toughness and battling back for the wins.

That said, opponent Huesler has also been displaying admirable qualities in his quest for the title and also holds a 1-0 H2H record over Rune, this admittedly though was on the different clay surface.

So really, I do feel the odds should be a lot closer, so why didn't I bet Huesler you ask? Well, I'm presuming the bookmakers may know something I don't so I am favouring with Rune. It could be the Huesler value was staring me right in the face. Though only time will tell and this all adds up to the fascinating threads to this intriguing final matchup.

Edited October 2, 2022 by MinellaWorksop
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[Swiss Maestro]

1 hour ago, MinellaWorksop said:

So really, I do feel the odds should be a lot closer, so why didn't I bet Huesler you ask? Well, I'm presuming the bookmakers may know something I don't so I am favouring with Rune. It could be the Huesler value was staring me right in the face. Though only time will tell and this all adds up to the fascinating threads to this intriguing final matchup.

Rune is ranked 26, while Huesler is ranked 74 and never has been in the Top 50. That's the reason. Bookies give a lot of importance to the rankings, which is completely normal cause you only get a good ranking by winning matches and tournaments. Sometimes rankings do not reflect the real level of the players, but that's not the case here.

I have seen both players and I'm really impressed by both players' level. Both players have dominated their matches with their serve, which is completely important when you play on this surface. Rune is the favourite player cause he's overall better player and has the better ranking, as simple as that. With that being said, Huesler enjoys this surface more than Rune does and if both players keep serving as well as they have done till now, then we'll have a really tight match.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not questioning your bet. I just want to explain to you why Rune has these odds. The bookmakers don't have any kind of "secret" information.

[CzechPunter]

Well, sometimes they do have somewhat more info that most bettors, though it's oftentimes possible to get it if you're happy to invest time and effort. Rune is better than Huesler overall for sure, but I'm a bit worried about backing him here, as Huesler looks inspired at the moment, and he also managed to dispatch Rune easily when they met in Bastad. I didn't see that match, and it might've been a fluke, but it would put me off in terms of odds for sure.