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Tennis Tips - September 26 - October 2


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  • 2 weeks later...

Almost too many events this week!

Linda Noskova over Diane Parry at 1.65 with Unibet is my first pick for the week, she's already beaten two competitive players in the qualifiers, and for Parry, it will be her first indoors match of the season, so who knows where she's at. This feels like one of those events that will have plenty of players that aren't fully committed, but Noskova clearly is.

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Well I guess Kecmanovic gonna dump in Seoul. If anyone out there was betting Kovacevic. You are far craftier than I can dream to be, and I congratulate you.  But, sometimes there is also a stroke of luck.. So, lets keep our heads about us. GL Czech on your Noskova play.  I don't typically lay those type of odds unless I know the player, but she does have some recent results i rated. 

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Nicolas Jarry -200 Seoul

Jarry has won his first two matches in straight sets here. He looks to be in same form as usual, and serving well. I don't rate Peniston as much.. Ryan will be consistent and knock balls bock in the court. but I think you will need something more to force errors from Jarry. gl

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I wouldn't bet against Kontaveit to win that.. certainly seems like a good chance. I am pretty tempted with Copil today in Tel Aviv. He's had some results in past indoor tournaments, and I do believe that Rinderkech is vulnerable at this time.  I haven't loved what I've seen of him recently. 

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Mathilde Paoletti -120

Mariusz Copil +225

I don't have big reasons behind these, and explained about copil. I've already placed these bets if my text in bold. I think Paoletti is the bigger talent maybe by alot, and this is home match for her. The other girl I think I saw she's playing doubles also. Paoletti already beat her opponent earlier touranment Palermo 2022 7-5 6-2. maybe she wins in 3 sets this time in closer match.. No idea about it.  

Anyways the goal of this post is to win 1 out of 2 of these bets, and avoid all big losses. then have chance for medium profit with Copil, and big if they both win.  Catch you guys later because as much as I'd like to watch these matches.. I'll probably go to sleep, and I will sweat something else out tomorrow.. These ones got me a bit nervous as you could imagine. 

 

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Have been taking a little break from the tennis betting ... just working too hard to really focus on it. Just too hectic to put in 3 hours after a full day. But I do notice a few new things. My feeling is that there is money to be made betting on the right low priced favorites.

But there are definitely advantages to be gained in the following situations;

1) Find those players playing well below their station. Sometimes players are building confidence. Other players don't like to train, but they like to build fitness by playing matches. And there is no substitute for match fitness. Perfect example is Irena Begu. Goes to play Tiriac Foundation Trophy. Slaughters everyone. 5 matches, wins 10 sets, and 7 of those sets are hidings (+2 serve breaks or more). 

2) Look for players who have not played in a long time (+2.5 weeks). These are vulnerable, especially if they are/have just travelled. Perfect example here is Madison Keys yesterday. Plays Golubic and gets wiped out (6-3, 6-2), yet she was big fav and #4 seed. Flattened in about 45 minutes.

3) Look for players who collapse after losing a close 1st set. Today in a match just finished, Sara Sorribes-Tormo played Martina Trevisian. Close 1st set won by Tormo, who wins 2nd set 6-0. It shows you how weak her opponent is, basically collapsing in the 2nd. That mental weakness, lack of fortitude will repeat over and over, 

If you are looking for a decent site to web scrap and get scores from I think  http://www.espn.com/tennis/dailyResults is excellent. Go to Fivver and get someone to make you a webscrapper for 10$. Put the resulting flat file in excel at worst, or your own database. Having the lastest data cannot hurt you, and is well worth the tiny investment.

Begu will go deep again this week, and Niemeier also. 

Got Niemeier wrong. She was cruising and just went right off the boil. Still a work in progress, but I was impressed with her against Swiatek at the US open.

 

Good luck everyone.

 

Edited by neilovan
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I've been very impressed with what I've seen from Linda Noskova on these indoor courts in Tallinn, Estonia. Czech Punter was the first to bring this girl's name to my attention. I guess she is ranked 105 singles right now which is higher than I would expect, but she's only 17 years old turning 18 in November. 

She really seems adapted to the indoor courts, and is hitting the ball hard with good margin over the net also.  I am curious if anyone thinks she pulls the upset over Haddad Maia. From what I saw Parry looked to be in fit form, and she dispatched her? Especially directing that question at Czech if he can offer any info. 

Haddad Maia is not a indoor player. She has a career 9-8 record, and stuggled with lower ranked player in her last match. I do realize she played close match vs Kudermetova at Tokyo indoor tournament, but I do believe those courts were playing similar to fast outdoor courts. 

Edited by money44
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Well, I don't think the current odds (below 3.00) offer any value there. She's up and coming, and she's had plenty of promising results recently, but she's still below Haddad Maia, and the latter is having what seems to be the best season of her career so far. She also has a match win under her belt here, so it's not the same situation as with Parry.

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Just a small quad  for me.

Basilashvilli to beat Verdasco . If Basilashvilli is half on form and focused he wins here against a player who is just hanging on. Why doesn't Verdasco just retire?

Sonego to beat Zapata Miralles. Ok low priced but I think he has too much form.

Adrian Mannarino to beat Constant Lestienne

Bencic to beat Boulter. Again low price but way to much quality on Bencic's side, and she already played a match yesterday.

 

Just some interest on the laptop (1 unit) while I am pounding keys .

 

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Difficult betting on the ATP side because the season is winding down a little. Motivation will play its part. Taylor Fritz can make the ATP finals if he does well in the next 5 weeks, so his motivation high. I expect him to go deep in Seoul.

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52 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@neilovan why are you taking Mannarino over Lestienne?

I just feel that Listienne was playing in San Diego on 23rd Sept and now he is 8 time zones away in Tel Aviv. Should be out of sorts and still semi-jetlagged. El-EL flies direct but it is a a 14 hour slog. Leaving 23rd and arriving in Israel 25th..

Edited by neilovan
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Sofia: Grigor Dimitrov -105 

Parma: Elisabetta Cocciaretto +100 

I saw glimpse of Ivashka in Sofia yesterday vs Ymer.  I thought the guy wasn't moving well or uncoordinated. I couldn't remember the problem, but I'm not seeing a player that I want to back indoors vs former champion, and higher regarded player Dimitrov coming in to this tournament with plenty of rest. 

Cocciaretto I am rating as the more technical ball striker, and I think both of them dealt with some leg injuries, and Elisabetta had knee surgery, but now she has won two itf events since then, and if you watch her last match.. You wouldn't know she has any problems. I think Paolini took advantage of some easy short balls sitting up in the court from Niemeier. I don't think she's going to see those same balls this match. I would say of the two .. I feel better about Dimitrov now, but initially I was always considering Italian. 

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Parma: Mathilde Paoletti +650 (50% insurance)

I am parlaying the above picks, and taking some insurance if I'm wrong about them. Paoletti is not serving great yesterday, but as I mentioned that I have her rated very high talent. She hits heavy ball with alot of spin, and I think Begu could have trouble finding some timing there. I thought the betting line looked off at these odds, and maybe something like +300 is more accurate.

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Jarry to beat Ruud at 5.00 with bet365 

I know it's a difficult one..., but I think the odds are not well placed. Ruud has just played the Laver Cup and this will be his first match here. Jarry, however, has already played 3 matches. The players he has faced are not elite players..., but he has won all of them in straight sets and his serve has not been broken yet. These courts are super fast and Jarry is enjoying them with his big serve.

As I said, it won't be easy and if it happens it probably will be via tie-breaks. Jarry needs to get to the last games with his serve intact, and if he does Ruud can get nervous and then Jarry will stand a chance..

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