Racing Chat- Friday 29th July

[Villa Chris]

Don’t bother with flats much but favourite in the next at GDlooks very strong 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Zilzalian]

12 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

one of the fastest 2yo horses i recorded last year was vertignious 50/1 last night 22/1 now be interesting to see how it gets on.

the more i see the more i am convinced that the classic generation are relatively poor

[The Brigadier]

On 7/28/2022 at 8:41 AM, The Brigadier said:

 

Goodwood 1.50

The opener on day 4 of the Goodwood Festival is a 2m 4 1/2F class 2 handicap which will be started by flag. Plenty hold chances including top weight Reshoun who ran well twice at Royal Ascot prior to winning at Newbury. He’ll stay well and with just a 3lb rise looks the most likely winner to me. Back in 5th last time was last years runner up Withold. He’s 5lb better off for 5L on the Newbury run but at nine years old maybe losing his zip a bit. Solent Getaway was a decent 3rd to Trueshan in the Northumberland Plate on the all weather last time and in first time cheek pieces can run well if staying this marathon trip. A tough call, but I’ll stick with Ian William’s Reshoun who has Jim Crowley on top.

 

RESHOUN 1 point each way @ 6/1 Coral 1/5th 1234

 

Goodwood 2.25

Only seven have declared for the group 2 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes run over a mile for three year olds only and a strong fancy here is the William Knight trained Checkandchallenge. Jockey of the moment William Buick takes the ride and he put up a terrific handicap performance off of a mark of 108 when going down by just under a length to Sinjaari at Sandown at the beginning of the month. That was his first run since flopping in the 2000 guineas and a reproduction of the Sandown run should be good enough to beat his two main rivals in the Roger Varian trained Bayside Boy and the Andrew Balding trained Berkshire Shadow. There was nothing between that pair in the St James Palace Stakes with preference today marginally for the latter.

 

CHECKANDCHALLENGE 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Goodwood 3.00

The Coral Golden Mile is up next, a class 2 handicap where the draw is so important and I have a strong fancy. The last eight winners have been drawn 5, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 9, & 5 - so you can see that this is very much a race where you need a horse drawn low. In fact the stats are such that I have dismissed anything in double figures including the highly promising unbeaten Shining Blue (stall 20) and the improver Jimi Hendrix (stall 21). The horse they all have to beat is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Dynasty. He was an impressive winner on re-appearance at Newmarket and with just a 3lb penalty is officially 6lb well in in future handicaps. He made all that day and from stall 3 expect William Buick to ride him positively over a track where the rail is out so they have to navigate a near 90% turn during the race. Despite the big turnout of twenty he’s a strong fancy. If the first reserve Lawful Command gets into the race he is interesting as he’s well berthed in stall 4 and is two from two at the track. This is the biggest ‘draw’ handicap of the season and let’s go with Noble Dynasty who I think will be very well backed. Franklin D won this race when backed from 9/2 into 7/4 back in 2016 from stall 1 and I can see a similar gamble on this one. He’s the week’s best bet.

 

NOBLE DYNASTY 4 Points win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Goodwood 3.35

Eleven go to post here for this group 2 King George Qatar Stakes over one of the worlds fastest 5F’s. Battaash has won four of the last five and although there’s unlikely to be another like him here it’s still a decent contest. The Horse Watcher’s Raasel is two from two here and stepped up in grade when swooping late on the outside to beat the possibly unlucky in running Mitbaahy in the group 3 Coral Charge a month ago. There was only a neck between them at the post and Roger Varian’s Mitbaahy would, in my opinion, have won if he had a clear run. He’s the selection here to turn the tables on the consistent Raasel. Acklam Express is one from one here and ran a career best when third in the group 1 Kings Stand Stakes behind Australian superstar Nature Strip. On that type of form he’ll be a major player here. The Godolphin runner Lazuli is fast but has to contend with a 3lb penalty here today. It’s Mitbaahy for me with a small saver on Acklam Express.

 

MITBAAHY 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

ACKLAM EXPRESS 1 point win @ 8/1 Betfred

 

Goodwood 4.10

The L’Ormains Queen’s Plate Glorious Stakes is up next and is a group 3 12F contest for 4 year old and upwards. We have a shortish favourite in the shape of the Charlie Appleby trained Rebel’s Romance who spanked stable mate and the re-opposing Kemari by 3 3/4L at Newmarket at the July meeting over this trip and it’s hard to fancy Kemari on that run. William Buick takes over on Rebels Romance from James Doyle here and he will be hard to beat if reproducing that run against some rather exposed types. Appleby’s 2nd string is probably Global Storm and he has a chance but it’s hard to be confident about him knowing that Buick has chosen Rebels Romance. Sir Michael Stoute’s Regal Reality is a capable sort but keeps on blowing the start which won’t help his cause and this is all about the favourite.

 

REBEL’S ROMANCE 3 points win @ 7/4 Betfred

 

Goodwood 4.45

An interesting sixteen runner 6F nursery concludes ITV’S terrestrial coverage. The only horse in the field who has a future group entry is Roger Varian’s top weight Bolt Action. He, like many here, is making his handicap debut and was last seen when 6th of 24 in the listed Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot over 5F. He’s bred to appreciate this longer trip and with David Egan on top looks the one to beat today. California Gem is chasing a hat trick following two wins up in Yorkshire and George Boughey has already been on the scoresheet this week at Goodwood. Bottom weight Felix Natalis was a welcome winner for Tom Dascombe last week and with a 6lb penalty is another with claims. Richard Hannon’s Qatar Racing owned Silencer was only half a length behind the favourite Bolt Action at Royal Ascot and is 4lb better off now as well as being gelded. He looks over priced at four times that of Bolt Action and he can be backed each way as well as win only the favourite.

 

BOLT ACTION 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hill

SILENCER 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Just the one winner today (7/4) and a 9/1 place - a loss of 5.95 points on the day. Very disappointing run from Noble Dynasty, just about the only Appleby horse to run bad this week !!  Still way ahead on week and Saturday's selection were uploaded this morning.

[kensland]

Evening selections. 

Musselburgh. 

Single. 

6.45. B. Associate.         9/2... unpl 

Double 

8.20. The Thin Blue Line.        7/2... 2nd 

6.10. Graces Quest.             3/1...... unpl 

singles & double. 

Double. 

8.30. Newm. Bessipop.              5/1..... unpl 

8.50. Muss. Sixor.                         9/4......... unpl 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited July 30, 2022 by kensland

[Tedthewolf]

16 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

ORBAAN anywhere in your ratings mate ?

I think it can go well from good draw  decent 6th last year when frank was slow away on it and kept it out the  back  much better Jockey on board today and off a much lower weight  25's look a really big price to me and great e/w value bog  6 places bet 365 .

 

Get in. Won very easily 

Beer o'clock

Keeps the stout drinkers in the snug happy!

[fd1972uk]

Not glorious at Goodwood

Couple of near ones but nothing. What makes it worse was didn't back on the last race and horse I quite fancied wins,  but had done my bets and decided against anymore.

Onto tomorrow, will use up my free bets I got.

[Villa Chris]

No luck today . 
 

-40  for the week so far 

I’ll stick with the Irish jumps tomorrow, and may have a look at the big un at Goodwood tomorrow . 

[Budgie 65]

Also there are criminal hackers so be careful lads I'm still trying to get rid of the scums