Racing Chat- Friday 29th July

[The Brigadier]

 

Goodwood 1.50

The opener on day 4 of the Goodwood Festival is a 2m 4 1/2F class 2 handicap which will be started by flag. Plenty hold chances including top weight Reshoun who ran well twice at Royal Ascot prior to winning at Newbury. He’ll stay well and with just a 3lb rise looks the most likely winner to me. Back in 5th last time was last years runner up Withold. He’s 5lb better off for 5L on the Newbury run but at nine years old maybe losing his zip a bit. Solent Getaway was a decent 3rd to Trueshan in the Northumberland Plate on the all weather last time and in first time cheek pieces can run well if staying this marathon trip. A tough call, but I’ll stick with Ian William’s Reshoun who has Jim Crowley on top.

 

RESHOUN 1 point each way @ 6/1 Coral 1/5th 1234

 

Goodwood 2.25

Only seven have declared for the group 2 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes run over a mile for three year olds only and a strong fancy here is the William Knight trained Checkandchallenge. Jockey of the moment William Buick takes the ride and he put up a terrific handicap performance off of a mark of 108 when going down by just under a length to Sinjaari at Sandown at the beginning of the month. That was his first run since flopping in the 2000 guineas and a reproduction of the Sandown run should be good enough to beat his two main rivals in the Roger Varian trained Bayside Boy and the Andrew Balding trained Berkshire Shadow. There was nothing between that pair in the St James Palace Stakes with preference today marginally for the latter.

 

CHECKANDCHALLENGE 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Goodwood 3.00

The Coral Golden Mile is up next, a class 2 handicap where the draw is so important and I have a strong fancy. The last eight winners have been drawn 5, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 9, & 5 - so you can see that this is very much a race where you need a horse drawn low. In fact the stats are such that I have dismissed anything in double figures including the highly promising unbeaten Shining Blue (stall 20) and the improver Jimi Hendrix (stall 21). The horse they all have to beat is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Dynasty. He was an impressive winner on re-appearance at Newmarket and with just a 3lb penalty is officially 6lb well in in future handicaps. He made all that day and from stall 3 expect William Buick to ride him positively over a track where the rail is out so they have to navigate a near 90% turn during the race. Despite the big turnout of twenty he’s a strong fancy. If the first reserve Lawful Command gets into the race he is interesting as he’s well berthed in stall 4 and is two from two at the track. This is the biggest ‘draw’ handicap of the season and let’s go with Noble Dynasty who I think will be very well backed. Franklin D won this race when backed from 9/2 into 7/4 back in 2016 from stall 1 and I can see a similar gamble on this one. He’s the week’s best bet.

 

NOBLE DYNASTY 4 Points win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Goodwood 3.35

Eleven go to post here for this group 2 King George Qatar Stakes over one of the worlds fastest 5F’s. Battaash has won four of the last five and although there’s unlikely to be another like him here it’s still a decent contest. The Horse Watcher’s Raasel is two from two here and stepped up in grade when swooping late on the outside to beat the possibly unlucky in running Mitbaahy in the group 3 Coral Charge a month ago. There was only a neck between them at the post and Roger Varian’s Mitbaahy would, in my opinion, have won if he had a clear run. He’s the selection here to turn the tables on the consistent Raasel. Acklam Express is one from one here and ran a career best when third in the group 1 Kings Stand Stakes behind Australian superstar Nature Strip. On that type of form he’ll be a major player here. The Godolphin runner Lazuli is fast but has to contend with a 3lb penalty here today. It’s Mitbaahy for me with a small saver on Acklam Express.

 

MITBAAHY 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

ACKLAM EXPRESS 1 point win @ 8/1 Betfred

 

Goodwood 4.10

The L’Ormains Queen’s Plate Glorious Stakes is up next and is a group 3 12F contest for 4 year old and upwards. We have a shortish favourite in the shape of the Charlie Appleby trained Rebel’s Romance who spanked stable mate and the re-opposing Kemari by 3 3/4L at Newmarket at the July meeting over this trip and it’s hard to fancy Kemari on that run. William Buick takes over on Rebels Romance from James Doyle here and he will be hard to beat if reproducing that run against some rather exposed types. Appleby’s 2nd string is probably Global Storm and he has a chance but it’s hard to be confident about him knowing that Buick has chosen Rebels Romance. Sir Michael Stoute’s Regal Reality is a capable sort but keeps on blowing the start which won’t help his cause and this is all about the favourite.

 

REBEL’S ROMANCE 3 points win @ 7/4 Betfred

 

Goodwood 4.45

An interesting sixteen runner 6F nursery concludes ITV’S terrestrial coverage. The only horse in the field who has a future group entry is Roger Varian’s top weight Bolt Action. He, like many here, is making his handicap debut and was last seen when 6th of 24 in the listed Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot over 5F. He’s bred to appreciate this longer trip and with David Egan on top looks the one to beat today. California Gem is chasing a hat trick following two wins up in Yorkshire and George Boughey has already been on the scoresheet this week at Goodwood. Bottom weight Felix Natalis was a welcome winner for Tom Dascombe last week and with a 6lb penalty is another with claims. Richard Hannon’s Qatar Racing owned Silencer was only half a length behind the favourite Bolt Action at Royal Ascot and is 4lb better off now as well as being gelded. He looks over priced at four times that of Bolt Action and he can be backed each way as well as win only the favourite.

 

BOLT ACTION 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hill

SILENCER 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

[richard-westwood]

3.00 good 

Noble dynasty  9.0 4/1 

Revich  8.7 29.0 

Eilean dubh 8.7 17.5 

Rebel territory  8.6 12/1 

Jimi hendrix 8.3 

This is,a hard race  ..seriously ....Some big prices near top so in stead of ew I'll go wins and hope a biggy wins 

10pt win noble ...5pt win revich ..eilean..Rebel 

[richard-westwood]

335 good 

Acklam express   9.1 7/1 

Khaadem  8.9  13/2 

5pt ew both 4 places 

[kensland]

Wolverhampton. 

Single. 

3.20. Haskoy..        10/1.       1st 

Good luck all. 

Edited July 29, 2022 by kensland

[Tedthewolf]

12 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

3.00 good 

Noble dynasty  9.0 4/1 

Revich  8.7 29.0 

Eilean dubh 8.7 17.5 

Rebel territory  8.6 12/1 

Jimi hendrix 8.3 

This is,a hard race  ..seriously ....Some big prices near top so in stead of ew I'll go wins and hope a biggy wins 

10pt win noble ...5pt win revich ..eilean..Rebel 

ORBAAN anywhere in your ratings mate ?

I think it can go well from good draw  decent 6th last year when frank was slow away on it and kept it out the  back  much better Jockey on board today and off a much lower weight  25's look a really big price to me and great e/w value bog  6 places bet 365 .

 

 

[Budgie 65]

Orbaan 11 in my rating but could get ew i

[Villa Chris]

Two big handicap races at Galway again today. Firstly 17 runner hurdle race 5.00. No time for any kind of write ups as back at work .

Ratings Predictor 

1 Hearts Are Trumps 16/1

2 Magnor Glory 8/1

3 Sil Ver Klass 16/1

6.00

1 Coach Carter 7/1

2 Batcio 12/1

3 Freewheeling Dylan 28/1

5 points win top two 

 

Batcio non runner so replace with Freewheeling now 33/1 ew 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Villa Chris

[black rabbit]

Nibiru    5 00 gal    1/4 pt win    7/1     [ stables other runner not out of it either ]

vertiginous  3 35 gwd  1/5 pt ew   40/1     4places 

lawfull command   3 00 gwd  1/4 pt win  12/1 

desert encounter  4 10 gwd   1/5 pt ew  60/1 

 

 

 

 

 

P/L  +  141.75  pts

 

 

 

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by black rabbit
selections

[richard-westwood]

9 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

ORBAAN anywhere in your ratings mate ?

I think it can go well from good draw  decent 6th last year when frank was slow away on it and kept it out the  back  much better Jockey on board today and off a much lower weight  25's look a really big price to me and great e/w value bog  6 places bet 365 .

 

 

Well goodwood seems to be my unicorn bogey course .....ratings just don't seem to be working here for whatever reason ...I've heard of it happening at certain courses  but never seen it  .......so anything can win tbh ..Real ..head scratcher 

[Budgie 65]

520 goo omniscient 9/4-2/1 

[kensland]

Goodwood

Single. 

1.50. Zoffee.     15/2... unpl p

Double. 

3.00. Jimi Hendrix        11/1.... unpl 

3.35. Mitbaahy.               10/3.         unpl 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited July 29, 2022 by kensland

[azzybear]

lelantos 2.00

[azzybear]

robeam 1.25

[Villa Chris]

Batcio non runner so replace with Freewheeling Dylan 33/1 ew 7 places 

[fd1972uk]

My pennies spent for today @ gg, used a couple of fish too.

1350  reshoun (thought I was being safe getting in early, missed odds drifting, still confident and mbo)Also had a free bet on zoffee on this too.

1425 checkandchallenge

1535 raasel b365 4/1o

1645 bolt action v 3/1o

Also small fb treble on noble dynasty (goo 1500), rebels romance (goo 1610) and noble style (new 1710)

 

[calva decoy]

32 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Batcio non runner so replace with Freewheeling Dylan 33/1 ew 7 places 

How many big price winners has W.Mullins had in the handicaps this year when he has 4 or 5 in a 25+ runner race ? 

Galway's a tough gig to make any wonga but I do like the mixed jumps & flat card .

I like the look of DUDLEY'S BAR in 7.40 but just a watching brief .

[The Scientist]

Ok I am going for my visual tip from its win at Nottingham

4.45 Gallic

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

How many big price winners has W.Mullins had in the handicaps this year when he has 4 or 5 in a 25+ runner race ? 

Galway's a tough gig to make any wonga but I do like the mixed jumps & flat card .

I like the look of DUDLEY'S BAR in 7.40 but just a watching brief .

Yeah I’ve noticed how his outsiders usually go on to win over his shorter priced ones. Course winners at Galway seems a good plus as it’s meant to be a bit of a specialist track from what I read . 

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

GOOD	3.35	Mitbaahy (4)	4/1
GOOD	4.10	Global Storm (4)	17/2

[The Equaliser]

Looks like I am having to do this on the hoof today.

1.50 Gd Make My Day 0.5 win at 12/1

2.25 Gd Checkandchallenge 1 pt win at 3.60 (not confident enough to nap it as the form lines look a bit mixed)

3.00 GD Eileandubh 0.5 win at 12/1 (there will be a lot of glum faces on here if Noble Dynasty loses this race)  WITHDRAWN 0.5 win on Rebel Territory

3.35 Gd I will quite happily put 0.5 win bets on @richard-westwood 's selections Khaadem & Aklam Express at 8/1  Thanks to @richard-westwood

4.45 Gd California Gem 0.5 win at 12/1 (big drifter) and Felix Natalis 0.5 win at 15/2 (big shortener)

5.20 Gd Highland Premiere 0.5 win at 11/1 (let's see if Frankie can win for Mark Johnston in the lucky last)

Total stakes now 4.5

RESULTS UPDATE

I laid out 4.5 points and had 4.5 pts returned thanks to @richard-westwood so B/E for the day.  This was all fun without tears.  I wished I had been brave enough to back Caius Chorister in the last, it had such a great run of form.  I somehow thought that a nasty 17lbs rise by the handicapper would be its undoing.  Wrong.

Last day of Goodwood is tomorrow.  I don't think that it is right to consider such races for multiple bets, though sometimes the favourites look like certainties they are not.  I will be glad when we get back to normal racing, albeit I wish the class racing could be spread out during the week

Edited July 29, 2022 by The Equaliser

[MCLARKE]

Goodwood trends analysis

2.25

Bred in UK, 4 from 18, AE 1.33

Odds > 5/1, 2 from 42

Odds < 15/8, 1 from 3

This leaves BERKSHIRE SHADOW at 3/1

3.00

Not drawn 1 - 7, 0 from 91

Odds < 13/2, 4 from 9, AE 2.39

This leaves NOBLE DYNASTY at 9/4, 6 places

This must be one of the strongest trends I've seen

[The Equaliser]

9 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Goodwood trends analysis

2.25

Bred in UK, 4 from 18, AE 1.33

Odds > 5/1, 2 from 42

Odds < 15/8, 1 from 3

This leaves BERKSHIRE SHADOW at 3/1

3.00

Not drawn 1 - 7, 0 from 91

Odds < 13/2, 4 from 9, AE 2.39

This leaves NOBLE DYNASTY at 9/4, 6 places

This must be one of the strongest trends I've seen

@TheBrigadier 's best bet of the week too. 3.00 race.  Let's hope that it doesn't meet trouble in running.  Far too short for my liking

Edited July 29, 2022 by The Equaliser

[fd1972uk]

Checkandchallenge certainly needs to check it's start as it's giving itself a helluva challenge, once again. 

 

[MCLARKE]

Goodwood trends analysis (continued)

3.35

Last ran less than 27 days ago, 2 from 53

Draw > 7, 1 from 45

Favourite 4 from 8, AE 1.37

This leaves RAASEL at 10/3, 4 places

4.10

Odds > 0 from 30

This leaves REBEL ROMANCE at 5/6

4.45

Forecast odds < 8/1, 1 from 23

Not in the top 7 in the weights, 0  from 47

This leaves REMARKABLE FORCE, RUMSTAR, PADDY'S DAY, SILENCER and KNEBWORTH

Draw 1 - 4, 4 from 28, AE 1.35

This leaves KNEBWORTH at 20/1, 5 places

5.20

Top 2 in the weights, 4 from 12, AE 2.30

This leaves 2, RING OF BEARA and SHEER ROCKS

Bred in UK, 5 from 35, AE 1.40

This leaves SHEER ROCKS at 10/1, 4 places

[Zilzalian]

Just shows if you follow the noise and some very good tipsters who know the time of day you can still come unstuck. noble dynasty couldntget beat just on the draw?

i liked the draw so put all three  low draw 123 in rfc just in case it beat sinjari and got the fc but the tc was no where in sight with a very strong fav letting it down.

Amazing that 1 min before the off orbaan was 33/1 returns 20's killing the fc somewhat, someone suggested that 365 gave u bog on fc thats not true.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Zilzalian

[MCLARKE]

57 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

3.00

Not drawn 1 - 7, 0 from 91

Odds < 13/2, 4 from 9, AE 2.39

This leaves NOBLE DYNASTY at 9/4, 6 places

This must be one of the strongest trends I've seen

At least the main trend held up, 1st 2 drawn 2 and 1

[Villa Chris]

15 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

ORBAAN anywhere in your ratings mate ?

I think it can go well from good draw  decent 6th last year when frank was slow away on it and kept it out the  back  much better Jockey on board today and off a much lower weight  25's look a really big price to me and great e/w value bog  6 places bet 365 .

 

 

Nice one 

[Budgie 65]

15 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

ORBAAN anywhere in your ratings mate ?

I think it can go well from good draw  decent 6th last year when frank was slow away on it and kept it out the  back  much better Jockey on board today and off a much lower weight  25's look a really big price to me and great e/w value bog  6 places bet 365 .

 

Wow why not put it up as a tip 20/1 nice one I feel stupid now

 

[Zilzalian]

one of the fastest 2yo horses i recorded last year was vertignious 50/1 last night 22/1 now be interesting to see how it gets on.

[Villa Chris]

Just to point out I didn’t actually bet on @Tedthewolf selection. Just confirming in case it came across that I did. Wish I had  though ?