Racing Chat - Saturday 19th March

[The Brigadier]

Well after a hectic four days it’s back to some sort of normality (unfortunately!) with a weekend of terrestrial TV racing from Uttoxeter for the Midlands Grand National and Kempton. The ground is drying at Kempton and on the slow side of good whilst it’s deeper at soft at Uttoxeter. Here’s my thoughts on the eight races.

 

Kempton 1.30

A modest class 4 handicap to start the afternoon’s proceedings run over three miles and only six going to post. All six can be given a chance of sorts with preference for Fergal O’Briens Cap St Vincent who’s fallen back to his last winning mark and will be ridden by Conor Brace. O’Brien has had a frustrating week with runners up in two of the bigger handicap at Cheltenham and his luck can change here. 

CAP ST VINCENT 1 point win @ 9/2 Paddy Power

 

Uttoxeter 1.50

Run over just short of three miles this class 3 handicap hurdle has attracted 13 runners. Serious Charges looks the one to beat as an unexposed five year old trained by Anthony Honeyball. She’s made all to win maiden/novice hurdles on slow ground at Exeter and Fontwell and this will be her first start in a handicap off of what may well be a workable mark. He’s the one to beat. Grace A Vous Enki represents Paul Nicholls and Bryony Frost but he won a weak novice hurdle last time in which the odds on favourite pulled up. Pulling Stamps also makes his handicap debut and is interesting for Philip Hobbs but it’s Serious Charges for me. 

SERIOUS CHARGES 2 points won @ 4/1 Bet365

 

Kempton 2.05

Another small field of just six assemble for this two mile novices’ handicap chase. Rockstar Ronnie is chasing a hat trick for Dan Skelton although hasn’t been seen since a lucky winner of a novice chase over course and distance back in November of last year. One of today’s rivals Sebastopol was three lengths clear when falling at the last that day and re-opposes on 10lb worse terms. There shouldn’t be a great deal between them on that run alone and although Sebastopol has flopped since back here the ground may have been too soft for him that day. At todays prices I’ll have to favour Tom Lacey’s Sebastopol who’s visored for the first time and will be ridden by Stan Sheppard. Drying ground may not suit Gary Moore’s Golden Boy Grey who’s been raised 5lb for his latest victory at Huntingdon. Sirocco Jo also has claims for Paul Nicholls but the value may well lie with Sebastopol. 

SEBASTOPOL 2 points win @ 6/1 Ladbrokes

 

Uttoxeter 2.25

All seven of these novices have a chance of sorts in this three miles novices’ handicap chase. Harry Whittington’s Docpickedme is two from two at the track but his latest victory hasn’t worked out and it’s a bit concerning that he sports a visor here. Venetia William’s Fuji Flight is also on a hat trick of wins and is up another 5lb for his latest victory at Newbury. The one I like is top weight Saint Palais who ran up a hat trick of handicap chase victories earlier in the season including the prestigious mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury from the progressive Gericault Roque who’s gone on to finish runner up in the Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick and the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last Tuesday. Saint Palais was backed to beat Ahoy Senor last time at Wetherby but made a couple of mistakes which put paid to any chance he had. He’ll need to improve his fencing but may just be too good for these and his rookie trainer Richard Bandey. 

SAINT PALAIS 2 points win 7/2 Bet365

 

Kempton 2.40

A competitive seventeen runner 2m 5F handicap hurdle with many having chances. Jay Jay Reilly represents Dan Skelton and bolted up last time winning by 15L at Doncaster with the runner up Inishbiggle winning since by 25L! To counteract that the handicapper has stumped him up 15lb but still has claims here. Fergal O’Brien’s Art Approval is also on my short list having possibly found the ground too soft on his last two starts. There’s quite a few here that are coming back to hurdles having been jumping fences recently including Zanza, Falco Blitz, Solo, Annsam, Jay Bee Why and Paddy’s Motorbike. A very hard handicap to solve and I’ll be keeping my stakes small and backing Art Approval each way with the additional places. 

ART APPROVAL 1 point each way @ 12/1 Coral 1/5^th 12345

 

Uttoxeter 3.00

A valuable £50k guaranteed handicap hurdle is up next run over 2m 4F and has attracted a dozen runners. Nigel Twiston-Davies brings his Beauport with arguably the best recent form having finished runner up at Newbury and Sandown (twice) this season. Paul Nicholl’s Red Risk is up 11lb for his latest course and distance victory and the runner up that day has been well beaten since. He’s opposable. David Pipe has had some recent success in this race having won it twice in the last three years and runs Panic Attack here off of bottom weight. He’s interesting especially if solid in the market. My fancy though is the Harry Fry trained Boothill who’s has had excuses for his three defeats this season. Always held in high regard by his Dorset based handler he needed his first run of the season and didn’t appear to take to fencing on his next start. Tongue tied for the first time he took too keen a hold in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury last time when weakening approaching the last to finish 8th beaten 8L. That form looks solid enough now with the winner Glory And Fortune running a highly credible 5th in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday. Today could be his day if he doesn’t pull his chance away. 

BOOTHILL 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234 Bet365

 

Kempton 3.15

Ten go to post for this class 2 2m 4 1/2F handicap chase. The drying ground may well be against Venetia William’s Espoir De Guye in this competitive race. There’s plenty with chances but it’s the rank outsider that will be carrying my hard earned. Nick Gifford has had a very quiet season but his Paddy’s Poet will appreciate the drying ground at the Sunbury-On-Thames track and will be straighter now following his latest run at Newbury where the morning rain may have scuppered his chances. He can race off of a mark of 128 today which is 5lb lower than his comfortable win at Wincanton last season. He looks each way value to me especially if you can get the extra place with Hills or Skybet. 

PADDYS POEM 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5^th 1234 Skybet 

 

Uttoxeter 3.35

The feature race of the day is the 4m 2F Midlands Grand National with a bumper field of nineteen going to post. On soft ground this will be a real slog with last years winner, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th all back to resume a re-match. Time To Get Up was never stronger than at the finish to win by a length then and returns to defend his title for Jonjo O’Neill and his son Jonjo Junior. He’s only 4lb higher than then and can confirm form with Final Nudge (3rd and 1lb worse off with Time To Get Up), Screaming Colours (4th & 5lb worse off), Achille (6th & 13lb better off for a 6 3/4L beating) and Truckers Lodge (7th & 8lb better off). The latter also won this very race the previous year. Achille is the one of those behind the winner that is weighted to get closer and Venetia Williams’ veteran sports first time blinkers and is worth a small ew saver. Irish raider Hewick and Oliver Sherwood’s Jersey Bean could of done without the downpour on Wednesday whilst there are stamina doubts for the likes of De Young Warrior, Momella, Hear No Evil, Romain De Senam and even Wholestone. I’m sticking with last years victor Time To Get Up who ran better than her finishing position suggests last time out at Haydock. 

TIME TO GET UP 2 points each way @ 9/2 1/5^th 123456 William Hills

ACHILLE 1/2 point each way @ 18/1 1/5 12345 Bet365

 

 

 

[richard-westwood]

Midlands national 

Truckers Lodge   9.0  

Time to get up  8.8 

Achille      8.5 

Captain drake    8.2 

Romain de senam   7.9 

5pt wins top 3 ....12x forecasts top 4