Racing Chat - Saturday 26th February

[The Brigadier]

Kempton 1.15

Only 8 go to post for this 2m 4 1/2F handicap chase. It has an open feel about it with Dan Skelton’s Flegmatik heading the weights. He’s up 7lb for he is recent win and also dropping half a mile which doesn’t look ideal. Also at the head of the market is the Nicky Henderson trained Patroclus who came good last time on his second start over fences and a 3lb rise looks lenient enough. James Bowen rides with stable jockey Nico De Boinville on Neil The Legend. In an open race it’s the Alan King runner Deyraan De Carjac that appeals the most to me. The drier the ground the better for this nine year old who has dropped the best part of a stone for his last six starts and this represents a drop in class. Tom Cannon is in the saddle.

 

DEYRANN DE CARJAC 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill

 

Lingfield 1.30

Only six assemble for this 5F listed contest, the Hever Sprint Stakes. Best in at these weights is Exlated Angel by 2lb from Lord Riddiford , Mondammej and Tone The Barone. All four have claims but I’m going to take a chance with a horse that on figures shouldn’t have any chance. Alice Haynes has done amazing work with Strong Power in turning his form right around and winning three handicaps over course and distance in January in the space of 9 days. He actually broke the 5F track record here on the second of those wins and may have more to come. It goes against the grain to be honest to back a horse that has 17lb to find with the highest rated here but with his usual partner Kieran O’Neill in the saddle can prove the weights and measures followers wrong!

 

STRONG POWER 1 point win @ 9/1 Bet365

 

Kempton 1.50

A decent enough turnout of eleven for this years renewal of the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle with maybe the last chance that someone can throw their hat into the ring for the Triumph Hurdle in three weeks time. Tritonic was impressive in the race last year before going off to the Triumph as the third favourite. Pleasant Man is the one who could cause some ripples in the Triumph betting if taking to the winter game. Owned by Tritonic’s owners, the McNeill family, he’s in the capable hands of Paul Nicholls, who’s had joy in the race before. A 95 rated flat performer when trained by Roger Charlton he was sold at the horses in training sales for 175,000 guineas. Nicholls also saddles another newcomer in Rubaud, an ex French flat performer who will be ridden here by Bryony Frost who rides plenty for his owner Chris Giles. Penalised 5lb for recent wins are Nicky Henderson’s Impulsive One and Milton Harris’s Knight Salute. It’s the latter that make the most appeal here. Unbeaten in four starts over hurdles including two grade two’s his trainer was talking him up in the trade press on Friday and his form looks rock solid having beaten subsequent impressive winner Porticello at Doncaster when last seen in December. Given a small break since and aimed at this contest he should appreciate the drying ground and looks a decent bet.

 

KNIGHT SALUTE 3 points win @ 2/1 Bet365

 

Lingfield 2.05

Eight go to post for this year’s Winter Derby run over 10F. Lord North is a 123 rated flat horse who we haven’t seen since winning the Dubai Turf at Meydan last March. Without a doubt he’s the class horse and if bringing his A game should win but I’m not prepared to take around Even money about a horse we haven’t seen for a year who’s being prepared for bigger targets later in the year. Second favourite Alenquer is rated only 8lb inferior to Lord North and was last seen when 9th in the Arc De Triomphe in October. A genuine Group one horse he should be thereabouts although there is a nagging doubt that he may well be better over 12F. Fancy Man won the Derby Trial over course and distance earlier in the month from King Of The South (with Al Zaraqaan back in 4th). He should confirm that form with that pair but needs to step up again to worry the front two. With the dead eight currently I’m going to take a chance on the favourites stable mate Forest Of Dean who won this race last year and will be ridden by Kieran O’Neill. The vibes are that the Clarehaven stable expect him to run well and I’ll play him each way and a forecast Lord North to beat his stable mate for a Gosden 1-2.

 

FOREST OF DEAN 1 point each way 12/1 1/5 123 Bet365

LORD NORTH to beat FOREST OF DEAN 1 point straight forecast

 

Kempton 2.25

A small but select field of five go to post for the Pendil Novices’ Chase, a grade two contest run over 2m 4 1/2F. All bar rank outsider Goa Lil have some sort of chance. I’m happy to take on the penalised pair of Minella Drama who’s come down from Donald McCain’s stable having won a grade 2 last time out at Haydock and Paul Nicholl’s Pic D’Orhy who flopped last time out in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown (although the trainer’s horses were running well below par at the time). Nicky Henderson saddles Fantastic Lady who as the only mare in the race receives a valuable 7lb sex allowance and although she will need to step up, having only won handicaps on her last two starts, can well here. But the one I like is the Alex Hales trained Millers Bank. A decent hurdler who finished third in a grade one at Aintree last Spring, he’s had the misfortune to unseat his rider Harry Bannister on both of his last two starts. He’s worth another chance with Kieran Woods taking over and is maybe a bit of value in a tricky contest.

 

MILLERS BANK 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill

 

Kempton 3.00

The dead eight hopefully go to post for the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 2 contest run over 2 miles. Gary Moore’s Shallwehaveonemore has been well supported throughout the week having being as big as 5/1 at one point. He’s now around the Even money mark and although he’s a progressive type who could easily win this represents scant value at his current odds so with hopefully all 8 running I’ll be looking to take him on with Paul Nicholls’ Iceo. He impressed in a fast time on his British/Nicholls debut over course and distance at Christmas when coasting home to win by 17L but was major disappointment next time out at Cheltenham when racing too freely. Whether that poor run was down to the track or even that the yard were badly out if form I’m not sure but if he came here straight from his British debut win he would near enough be pushing for favouritism. Yes he does have questions to answer now but if Harry Cobden can get him to settle he could be good each way value.

 

ICEO 1 1/2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5 123 888Sport

 

Newcastle 3.15

A bumper turnout of seventeen for this years renewal of the Vertem Eider Handicap Chase which is run over 4M 1 1/2F. With conditions on the easy side this will, as always be a test of stamina. Eclair Surf is top of my short list having bolted up in the Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick last month. The further he went the further he went away and despite a 10lb rise should appreciate the extra half a mile today for the in form Emma Lavelle stable. Irish traveller History Of Fashion has to be taken seriously for trainer Peter Fahy but has yet to race beyond three miles so stamina is not guaranteed. The same can be said about the lightly raced Danilo D’Airy from the Robert Bevis yard. Lake View Lad is on a nice mark and with a decent course record shouldn’t be dismissed over a trip which suits.

 

ECLAIR SURF 1 point each way @ 7/1 1/5^th 12345 Bet365

LAKE VIEW LAD 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 1/5 123456 Paddy Power

 

Kempton 3.37

The three mile handicap chase has been run under many different guises over the years but Coral have ploughed money into the race and this years renewal looks a competitive affair. A case can be made for many with Christian Williams throwing three at the race. Cap Du Nord carry’s bottom weight and has tumbled down the handicap to such an extent that the nine year old can race here off of a mark 15lb lower than when 5th last year. Jack Tudor takes a further 3lb off and he’s on my short list. Williams’ other runners aren’t without chances in Five Star Getaway, a course and distance winner here over Christmas under Nick Schofield (who retains the ride today) and Kitty’s Light who’s coming down the handicap also. Current favourite is Annsam who beat the subsequent winner Phoenix Way by 4 1/4L at Ascot when last seen in December and the second re-opposes here on identical terms having won at Ascot himself since. A case can literally be made for all the fourteen runners but I’ll take a chance on Cap Du Nord who looks to be on a winning mark.

 

CAP DU NORD 1 point each way @ 7/1 Betfred 1/5^th 12345

 

[richard-westwood]

337 kemp 

Annsam   8.8 6.8

Good boy bobby  8.4 17.5 

Zanza    8.4  12.5 

Zhiguli   7.9  12.0 

1pt each