Racing Chat - Saturday 5th February

[richard-westwood]

Sand 255

Just posting big race early

Orbys legend 9.0 8/1 

Dolphin Square  8.7 21.0 16/1 general

Easysland   8.0  33/1 

Green book  7.5 7/1 

Dan's le vent 6.8 

Paddleowncanoe 6.8 

I'll try ew dolphin and easy ....win other 2 

Edited February 4, 2022 by richard-westwood

[The Brigadier]

A bumper day’s racing with ITV showing 11 races from Leopardstown, Sandown, Wetherby and Musselburgh. The ground is unseasonably good (dead in places) at Sandown, good to soft in Ireland, good at Musselburgh and good to soft at Wetherby (rain forecast). Here’s my thoughts on them:-

 

Sandown 1.15

All bar possibly Hatcher have claims in this open looking 1m 7F 119yds Handicap Chase. Dolos has won this race in two of the last three seasons and can race here today off of a mark lower than both of those victory’s. He looks woefully out of firm though and his trainer Paul Nicholls is surprisingly struggling for winners also (maybe something to do with the annual flu jab that the Ditcheat trainer usually administers in January no doubt). Nicholls also runs Tamaroc Du Mathan who’s had a wind operation since last seen in the same colours if Dolos. The drying ground may not suit the likes of Frero Banbou and Gunsight Ridge and it maybe worth chancing Bun Doran here. Tom George’s eleven year old is no doubt well handicapped these days racing off of a mark of 135 when you consider he reached the heady heights of 156 a couple of years ago. There was nothing wrong with his 1 3/4L second to Gunsight Ridge over course and distance last time out on heavy ground and on 4lb better terms and on ground that should suit he looks worth a small interest.

 

BUN DORAN 1 point win @ 10/1 Bet365

 

Leopardstown 1.35

The Spring juvenile hurdle will no doubt cause a few ripples on the Triumph Hurdle market and maybe fought out by the two market principals in Gordon Elliott’s Fil Dor who comes here on the back of a perfect three from three over hurdles under Davy Russell and he will be hard to beat here. His chief threat will be Willie Mullins’ Vauban who was well touted on his hurdles debut at Punchestown on New Years Eve when beaten only half a length by the subsequent easy Cheltenham winner and new Triumph Hurdle favourite Pied Piper. That was an excellent hurdles debut especially as he didn’t get the clearest of runs over the last. Mullins also saddles three others but this looks to between the big two with slight preference for Fil Dor. 

FIL DOR 2 points win @ 6/4 William Hill

 

Sandown 1.50

The Contenders Hurdle run over just short of two miles has attracted its usual small field of only five and can go the way of the Tom Symonds trained Song For Someone. He went down by half a length to rival here Guard Your Dreams last time out at Cheltenham in the International Hurdle and re-opposes on 6lb better terms which should be more than enough to turn the form around. Goshen looked a very hard ride last time out at Lingfield and needs much softer ground so is easily over looked today. 

SONG FOR SOMEONE 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Musselburgh 2.05

A conditional jockeys veterans’ handicap chase run over 2m 6F. As you would imagine a lot of these have their best days behind them and it may pay to take a chance with the Iain Jardine trained Cool Mix who comes here in form having finished third in a non veterans handicap over Christmas at Doncaster. His last victory came in October 2020 on good ground at Wetherby in the Bobby Renton Handicap Chase off if a handicap mark of 126 and can race here today off of the same mark so is weighted to run a big race under 3lb claiming conditional Alan Doyle. Charlie Longsdon’s Glen Forza and Olly Murphy’s Calipso Collonges look the dangers but in a weak betting heat it’s a small stakes bet on Cool Mix for me. 

COOL MIX 1 point win 10/3 Bet365

 

Sandown 2.20

The ground looks the determining factor here in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase run over 2m 4F. L’Homme Presse is a smashing horse who I have plenty of time for but all his wins over fences have been gained with dig in the ground ( he was pulled out on his intended chase debut at Newbury in November because the ground which was officially good to soft was deemed not soft enough) and he may well find todays conditions on the good side for him. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock were he to be withdrawn on the morning of the race by his shrewd trainer Venetia Williams. The obvious one to oppose him with is the Paul Nicholls trained Pic D’Orhy who will relish the decent ground and is actually rated a pound higher than L’Homme Presse by the official handicapper. The form of the trainer is a bit of a worry but I’ll take him to enjoy the surface best and take the spoils here. 

PIC D’ORHY 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Wetherby 2.30

Ahoy Senor should be winning this four runner Towton Novices’ Chase run over three miles. It was certainly no disgrace to be beaten by Bravemansgame at Kempton over Christmas with this Lucinda Russell trained novice held in very high regard by his trainer. He was massively impressive on his penultimate run at Newbury when jumping his field silly and if back to that form should be winning this all be it at prohibitive odds. He does however have to carry a 5lb penalty for that victory which puts the progressive Richard Bandey trained Saint Palais in with a chance of sorts at the weights. Ashton Lad is well held by the favourite with the remaining runner of the quartet Noble Yeats coming here badly out of form. This is Ahoy Senor’s to lose though at the prices it’s a sit back and watch contest in my opinion.

 

Musselburgh 2.40

A good betting heat here despite only eight going to post for the 1m 7F 124yds Scottish County Handicap Hurdle. Course form is so important at this tight Scottish track and that points to the Donald McCain trained, Brian Hughes ridden Fiveandtwenty who’s track form figures read 1114. The 4th came last time, his first since a wind operation, when 4th beaten just under twenty lengths to Tommy’s Oscar (winner since). Whether he needed that run or it came too soon after his operation I’m not quite sure but the handicapper has reacted by dropping him 4lb and it’s worth chancing that he can get back to his old form and take this with his customary front running tactics. Handicap debutant Socialist Agenda is also on the short list off of a nice looking mark and the Ex Andrew Balding trained Diocletian is an interesting runner for the shrewd Nick Alexander stable following an absence and wind operation. 

FIVEANDTWENTY 2 points win @ 4/1 Betfred

 

Sandown 2.55

The most competitive race of the day is the 18 runner Heroes Handicap Hurdle to be run over just shy of three miles. The weights are headed by the re-opposing Easyland who has a very stiff task here. Call Me Lord loves this track and with the Henderson stable amongst the winners this week has to be on the shortlist. His track figures read 1121323 and after an abortive spell over fences can run well today. Maybe the most interesting runner here though is the handicap debutant Ree Okka trained by the in form Harry Fry. He’s looked good winning novice hurdles at Chepstow and Kempton this season and his mark of 130 looks reasonable to me. Others with chances include Venetia Williams’ Green Book who unseated early in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle when well backed and Nigel Twiston Davies’ Beaupart who’s stepping up to three miles for the first time today. An open race with Ree Okka and Call Me Lord the two that interest me the most. 

REE OKKA 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5 123456

CALL ME LORD 1 point each way  @ 11/1 Coral ¼ 1234

 

Leopardstown 3.15

Eight quality chasers go to post for the Irish Gold Cup run over just over three miles. Pushing for favouritism is the Willie Mullins trained Kemboy who took this race last year and appeared to bounce back to form when third to Galvin in the Savills Chase over Christmas over course and distance. He’s a major player if on his A game. Mullins saddles three others with Asterion Forlonge probably the best of them under Brian Cooper. A rare British runner at this meeting is the Paul Nicholls trained Frodon who made all to beat Galvin and Minella Indo in the Champion Chase at Down Royal on these shores back in October. He’s bombed out since in the King George at Kempton (Asterion Forlonge would have finished ahead of him had he not fallen at the last). The most interesting runner for me however is Minella Indo who won last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. He obviously needed his comeback run when third to Frodon at Down Royal prior to a very disappointing effort when pulling up in the King George at Kempton over Christmas. His trainer, Henry De Bromhead was badly out of form at the time and if he comes back to his best is maybe the value play here. 

MINELLO INDO 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

Sandown 3.30

Eight go to post for this years renewal of the Masters Handicap Chase run over 3m 37yds. On soft ground Farinet would be a confident selection following his course and distance win a month ago but he was pulled out at Cheltenham on similar ground last Saturday and it could well be the same scenario today. Five Star Getaway has been raised 4lb for his recent Kempton win whilst other last time out winners Kapcorse (7lb) and Le Milos (9lb) are also on the move up the handicap. The one that interests me though if the Philip Hobbs trained Deise Aba who has won this contest for the last two seasons bringing his track form figures to 112. He’s 5lb higher than when taking this last season and has to put a dire performance in the Welsh National last time out behind him but in hope that the Esher air sparks him back to his best he can take this in the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings under Tom O’Brien who’s record on the nine year old read 112P. 

DEISE ABA 2 points each way @ 7/1 Bet365 1/5^th 123

 

Musselburgh 3.45

A small turnout of only seven for the Edinburgh National run over just short of four miles.

Stamina obviously will be of a premium and for that reason I’m over looking second favourite The Wolf of Olly Murphy’s who’s yet to race beyond 3m 2F. Favourite is the Paul Nicholls trained Highland Hunter who won at this meeting over hurdles two years ago. He looks all about stamina having win at Sandown last December over 3m 5F before an excellent 9L second in the Welsh National over 3m 6 1/2F. He’ll be hard to beat here with the only negative being the current form of his stable. He’s the selection but to small stakes due to the modest stable form. 

HIGHLAND HUNTER 1 point win 15/8 William Hill