Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th)

[Matt]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th)

Sco, I'm sure the English will appreciate the fact their only representative who remotely belong to their creed left in the tourny is actually Scottish by birth...

Dont worry even we dont want to claim that whining twat :lol as for the :puke :puke jesus, this guy has some serious fitness issues, for a pro tennis player its a complete shambles. The love god will take him out second round no probs :cow

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Not a bad start to the Grand Slam so far even though there's been some heart-stopping moments. Nevertheless, Day 3 should provide some opportunities to increase the bank further even though clearcut value deals are not as prevalent as they were yesterday. To kick things off then... 20pts Hrbaty-Dent-Philippoussis (2.08 @ Ladbrokes) :( 30pts Hrbaty-Dent (1.35 @ Ladbrokes) :D 10pts Dent to beat Burgsmuller 3-0 (1.86 @ Betfair) :( 10pts Hrbaty to beat Seppi 3-0 (3.90 @ Betfair) :( The price for this one(Dent-Hrbaty) may be short, but the value is as great as they come as far as I'm concerned. Burgsmuller will struggle against any half decent player on most tournaments, nevermind in Grand Slams where he simply never makes any headway - up against Dent, he'll have his work cut out from the outset and the American should walk this in straight sets. Similarly, Hrbaty's experience and pedigree at this level will surely be evident against the inexperienced Seppi who still hasn't made much of an impact outside clay. Hrbaty's consistent style of play will simply not allow the Italian to settle in and get any sort of a rhythm going to begin with and personally, I just can't see past value in backing the Slovak to walk this in straight sets. Similarly, Philippoussis is also in a different class to Kucera and I feel so long as the Scud turns up with half his mind focused enough on the job, his big-serving game should have the beating of Kucera. 10pts LAY Horna to beat Acasuso (2.14 @ Betfair) :D Acasuso leads Horna 6-2 on h2h, having won their last 5 meetings on the bounce and won all 4 ATP meetings between them(although it must be stressed only 1 of the 8 meetings did not take place on clay). Clearly, this is one of those games where the stats would go some way to suggest Acasuso has got the measure of beating Horna and probably knows a way to play the Peruvian which Horna has yet learnt to counter - nothing to suggest Horna will have the edge today IMO and I just can't see him bucking the trend. 10pts Almagro to beat Carlsen (2.36 @ Betfair) :D Almagro is a tad too big to be given a miss IMO. Carlsen has never made it past the 3rd Round at the US Open and had previously only made the 3rd Round once(and that was 10 years ago!) - clearly, there isn't much to suggest he's a worthy favourite here and Almagro, being the fighter that he is, could well have an edge if he takes the game to the veteran Dane as he has done all year as that could really trouble Carlsen who doesn't look that mobile a player. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 166.80pts Profits/Losses : +66.80pts

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Looks like we are against each other today, Edtkh with Hrbaty/Seppi and Carlsen/Almagro. Though you agree with me on Acasuso and Phillipoussis, which is good. I just feel Hrbaty's inconsistency is enough for Seppi to take a set today. Seppi says his favourite surface is hard, whether or not he's had any impact on it. He beat Tursunov on hard last week, and although Hrbaty is usually a good hard court performer, he had lost recently to Horna and Muller on this surface. Muller did beat Roddick last night though! As for Almagro, he's only played a few hard court matches this year, losing to the likes of Bobby Reynolds. Carlsen has not been in the best of form, but I fancy him to edge it. It's all about opinions! Good luck.

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Mmm, you could be right Ed. Carlsen 0-3 down. Seppi 1-3 down. Acasuso a break down, too. Not good.:(

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th)

Looks like we are against each other today, Edtkh with Hrbaty/Seppi and Carlsen/Almagro. Though you agree with me on Acasuso and Phillipoussis, which is good. I just feel Hrbaty's inconsistency is enough for Seppi to take a set today. Seppi says his favourite surface is hard, whether or not he's had any impact on it. He beat Tursunov on hard last week, and although Hrbaty is usually a good hard court performer, he had lost recently to Horna and Muller on this surface. Muller did beat Roddick last night though! As for Almagro, he's only played a few hard court matches this year, losing to the likes of Bobby Reynolds. Carlsen has not been in the best of form, but I fancy him to edge it. It's all about opinions! Good luck.

No offence mate, but Seppi is thrash and it'd take a monumental effort to even get a set here IMO. As for Almagro I'm sticking with him purely because I think the value lies with him as he stands no less than a 50-50 chance. One thing I tend not to read too much into is the player's form coming into the US Open - as you've seen with lots of people(including Chela), their form leading into the US Open is not necessarily indicative of how they perform when it really matters(which, to be fair, was a reason I felt why we didn't make as much from those crap tournies as we normally do for Grand Slams). LOL! Good luck with your bets(except for Seppi and Carlsen, of course). :rollin

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Correct about Almagro, Ed. Three close sets but you can't argue with a straight sets win. Nice one. Seppi took one off Hrbaty though. Phillippoussis a big disappointment, losing in straight sets. Starting bank : 100 points Bet: 77 points Return : 84.39 points. Profit : +7.39 points. Two bets to come tomorrow, 6 points and 12 points. Lay of Novak 3-0, and Davydenko/Haas double. On to round two!

[Disco Biscuit]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) :puke v Clement (2.1 @ WillHill) I just can't see Murray winning this. I watched the Pavel match and at times it looked like a mismatch. Murray seemed to cautious - maybe he has been practicing on clay too much. He just doesn't seem to carry the weight of shot and there is an obvious question mark over his conditioning - both of these can be worked on but for now I think Clement will have too much for him. Clement had a good win over JC Ferrero in R1 and will surely see this as a great chance for him to progress into R2. If Murray is to win I think he will have to step in much more and play more aggressively - if it turns into a war of attrition, there will be only one winner.

[Disco Biscuit]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Blake v Andreev (1.33 @ Bet365) My banker of the round. Blake is playing so well currently and this match is for him to lose. OK the price isn't great but even at 1.33 I think this still represents value. I hope they schedule this match for the night session as Blake seems to revel in that atmosphere.

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Agree on Blake, Disco, but the price is a bit short for me. Andreev been playing not bad recently. He's a bit flaky, so Blake and the home crowd could do for him. I would like to add another one for the next round, which has just struck me in a flash of inspiration. Mirnyi to bt Serra 1/3 Puerta to bt Wawrinka 1/2 I know Wawrinka always gives you a run for your money, but Puerta is superior here. Serra overcame Koubek, who is just back from a long lay off. Don't think it will be three sets, but confident Puerta will prevail. Mirnyi is solid. He will win, barring injury. 20 point double. Murray? Seems to be one of those for in running. However likely he looks to win or lose, the opposite seems to happen, in the short run. Lay him when he's cruising, or back him when he seems beaten. Money to be made in a matter of minutes. Look at last night: Up a break in the final set: Throws up: Price goes from 1.3 to 1.57 without a point being played. Loses serve straightaway. Then 2.1. Breaks back, holds serve. Murray 1.3 again. A licence to print money. Doesn't happen all the time, granted.

[Beanie]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) I agree with a lot of your thoughts NW... 5pts Puerta/Berdych Double @ 1.75 with >Skybet Missed the 1.50 on Puerta at >Skybet, but odds still look ok. Its just a case of opposing to Wawrinka recently who should be no match for Puerta on hardcourts - he even managed to go down 6-3 6-2 to Saulnier in New Haven, and scraping past Ram in a long 5 setter in the first round is hardly a feather in his cap. Berdych was perhaps not wholly convincing in the first round, needing two tiebreaks to see off Kohlschreiber, but again its a case of more opposing the opponent. Mello v Monaco was a terrible draw to see in the first round, given their hapless records on hard. Other than a win over Grosjean in LA, Mello has done nothing to suggest he will trouble Berdych today, a fact hammered home by Mello's first round 6-1 6-4 loss to Andy Ram in New Haven. Still considering Soderling but missed the 2.30 available. ----------------------------------------------------- As for Andy Murray...its all about his injury. He has said a few times this week that his injured shoulder is causing him problems, but it should be noted that it is only really on his serve that this is the case. Add to that a fairly inaccurate first serve that he has. So its a case of laying him before his service games, and backing him when returning(as his returns are still good and seem unaffected by the injury) - it was very easy money vs Pavel and should be the same again today. :cow

[Jamesk]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) It must be TJ today to beat Grosjean. I followed his scoring against Zabaleta(a good player) and he ws immense.Against the serve he broiught so many games to deuce while coasting his own service games.Interested to hear your thoughts Ed, I know you're a Johansson fan.

[Jamesk]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) I reckon Murray might retire if he looks like losing, he seems that sort of a character. So if u fancy him today, you should back him in a book where they refund retirements.I dont know enough about Clements form(you never can tell with Ferrero, some days he's brutal) so personally i wont bet on it.

[Beanie]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th)

I reckon Murray might retire if he looks like losing' date=' he seems that sort of a character. [/quote'] :eek Did you not see his match vs ToJo at the Stella Artois Champs? He was seizing up with cramp on virtually every point, collapsing to the ground in pain on numerous occasions, but he just refused to retire, even though he was playing at almost walking pace for the last few games and had no hope of winning. If there is any player on tour who will 100% refuse to retire unless absolutely necessary(and remember US Open is his favourite tournament, and the one he has always dreamed of playing in) its Murray.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Philippoussis was a letdown on Day 3 and clearly showed he's a spent force. Day 3 sees a 5.9pt loss for me personally, but the tournament's still been rewarding thus far. On to Day 4 then... 30pts Muller-Berdych (3.05 @ Ladbrokes) :( Berdych has clearly shown he's a very capable player on hardcourts on his day having claimed both the scalps of Nadal and Federer over the last year. Even when he's not on his day, I feel the 20-year-old Czech will still prove too much for Brazilian journeyman Mello who doesn't have much to offer at this level at all. Muller, for me, has got to be the value bet of the day. There's no reason for me to believe Muller's a 2.50 shot against Ginepri who isn't exactly a world beater to begin with. In case anyone's wondering, this is not an over-reaction to his win over Roddick on my part as I've been following Muller for the last couple of months and he has certainly shown what he's capable of on his day(he had a good run in LA before losing to Agassi in the final a couple of weeks back as well) and should have the beating of Ginepri IMO. Muller will start this as the favourite in my book any day. 15pts Wawrinka-Blake (3.84 @ Ladbrokes) :D Blake is in terrific form as I'm sure most people will know by now and on his day, he's easily a top 10 player without a shadow of a doubt. That said, he should prove too much for Andreev who's too inconsistent for my liking and I feel the fact he has a knack to drop his concentration levels on his service games could prove costly here. The other value bet of the day for me has got to be Wawrinka - it's an absolute joke Puerta is 1.36 to win this one. Quite frankly, the very fact Wawrinka did take a set off Puerta when the Argentine was in the form of his life - and also playing on his favourite surface - at Roland Garros speaks volumes of this boy's ability and I'd have to fancy him to go one better this time on a surface which Puerta doesn't exactly fancy. Another edge in Wawrinka's favour is the fact he's a battler who never gives up, which is quite the exact opposite from Puerta who will throw in the towel at the very first sign of defeat. This is a 50-50 shot at worst, hence, the value in Wawrinka. 15pts T Johansson-Berdych-Blake (3.12 @ Ladbrokes) :( T Johansson leads Grosjean 2-1 on h2h although he has never beaten the Frenchman on hardcourt. However, I don't think the H2H matter too much in this one as 2 of the 3 meetings took place before 2002. That said, Grosjean hasn't been playing sublime tennis lately and he also isn't known to have a particularly solid game on hardcourts as he does for grass. Hence, the edge obviously lies with Johansson IMO as his textbook-style of play has effectively troubled many an opponent down the years and should prove effective against someone who isn't exactly on top of his game. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 160.90pts Profits/Losses : +60.90pts

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th)

Agree on Blake, Disco, but the price is a bit short for me. Andreev been playing not bad recently. He's a bit flaky, so Blake and the home crowd could do for him. I would like to add another one for the next round, which has just struck me in a flash of inspiration. Mirnyi to bt Serra 1/3 Puerta to bt Wawrinka 1/2 I know Wawrinka always gives you a run for your money, but Puerta is superior here. Serra overcame Koubek, who is just back from a long lay off. Don't think it will be three sets, but confident Puerta will prevail. Mirnyi is solid. He will win, barring injury. 20 point double.

Don't let me put you off, but I'd steer clear of both if I were in your shoes. Serra is no mug(I honestly feel he'd have beaten Hewitt at Montreal even if he hadn't retired) and will trouble Mirny big time if the Belorussian has one of his off days where he can't find his 1st serve. As for Wawrinka, I've explained my reasonings in an earlier post. Good luck if you're on them though... :hope

It must be TJ today to beat Grosjean. I followed his scoring against Zabaleta(a good player) and he ws immense.Against the serve he broiught so many games to deuce while coasting his own service games.Interested to hear your thoughts Ed, I know you're a Johansson fan.

I'm not exactly a fan of Johansson(well, when you've seen Federer, I don't suppose anything else even comes close, does it? :lol ), but Johansson is obviously a solid and reliable player for whom consistency is never a problem. His textbook-style of play should trouble Grosjean enough to secure a win here considering Grosjean is neither in form nor someone who is as patient as T Johansson(for starters, I just can't see Grosjean out rallying - clearly, not many outside the top 10 are well capable of out rallying Johansson to begin with - Johansson and I feel that's where the vast majority of points will be decided).

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) I can't believe this is Muller playing and not an imposter - the cnut on court at the moment is nothing like the one who beat Ginepri 7-6, 7-5 in LA a few weeks back and the one who beat Roddick on Tuesday! :@

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Muller was atrocious, Ed. TJ not much better, but you were right about Wawrinka. Outbattled Puerta in 5 sets. A shame for me, as I thought Puerta would have too much class.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th)

Muller was atrocious' date=' Ed. TJ not much better, but you were right about Wawrinka. Outbattled Puerta in 5 sets. A shame for me, as I thought Puerta would have too much class.[/quote'] Muller can't be this bad - he never looked as though he was at the races at all. Shame about TJ and good for Wawrinka, but I still need Blake to get the job done for me to minimise my loss for the day to a single digit... :lol

[kojic2003]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Almagro(4.50 at Bet365) to beat poor Taylor Dent.I can't believe this guy is supposed to be a big American talent.He was terrible against Burgsmuller, in fact he was poor every time I saw him.The pressure will also play a big role in this match and Almagro is certainly able touse this advantage.

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) You pre-empt my thoughts, Kojic, on Dent, but I am taking a different route. Almagro +7 games v Dent - evens at Bet 365. 15 points. Seems to me Dent is still inconsistent. Lost a set to Burgsmuller. If Dent wins, which is still likely, I can see at least one tie break, so the games handicap for Almagro here is attractive. Update: Starting bank ; 100 points. Profit: - 12.61 points. One bet outstanding : Haas/Davydenko double 12 points. Novak has scratched vs Massu, so that is void.

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) One more little acca for me this afternoon, though I am finding it difficult to spot value today. Mirnyi to bt Serra 2/7 Rochus to bt Montanes 1/8 Nieminen to bt Phau 3/10 Still happy to back Mirnyi again, though the price has contracted from the 1/3 I got originally. Rochus must beat Montanes. The Belgian is a tidy customer on hard, the same cannot be said for Montanes, who amazingly beat the in-form Hanescu in round one, albeit by virtue of the Romanian suffering an injury. Nieminen battled strongly to beat Beck, whereas Phau, who came in to the tournament because of Safin's withdrawal, beat Popp easily. I think that maybe more to do with Popp than Phau being particularly good. Not happy with the prices, but still see them all winning. 12 point treble.

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Sorry, prices from Tote. I see Davydenko is now 1/3 from the 1/2 I originally got at Stan James. A good sign, hopefully.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) An indifferent Day 4 has resulted in a 2.4pt loss, but today should yield better returns with better games on the board. 10pts P Capdeville to beat F Verdasco (7.40 @ Betfair) :( 10pts LAY Verdasco to beat Capdeville 3-0 (2.32 @ Betfair) :( Capdeville is very underrated in this one - he's coming into this clash on the back of a fine run, beating Phau in straight sets in the qualifiers and eliminating an in-form PH Mathieu in 4 sets. Verdasco, on the other hand, has a woeful Grand Slam pedigree(never gone past the 2nd Round of any Grand Slam with the exception of last year's US Open where he made the 3rd Round) and is only here on the virtue of beating an out-of-sorts and injury-plagued Henman in the last round. I'd certainly expect Capdeville to give Verdasco a much closer run for his money than the books will have you believe. 10pts LAY Mirnyi to beat Serra 3-0 (2.66 @ Betfair) :D Mirnyi's days could well prove numbered and he's just way too short against Serra - Serra may not beat him, but should at least take a set off him. 30pts Gonzalez-Kiefer-Ferrer (2.82 @ Ladbrokes) :D Tursunov has no Grand Slam pedigree besides upsetting a few people at Wimbledon year after year and should not trouble the big serving Chilean too much. Similarly, Kucera beating an out-of-sorts Phillippoussis can't lay too much claim to being in any sort of a good run either and Ferrer should hammer him as well. Lastly, Kiefer should also beat Stepanek as the Czech, for one reason or another, struggles to perform at the big stage where it really matters - moreover, Kiefer leads Stepanek 2-1 on h2h having won the last 2 meetings. 20pts Murray-Moya-Vaidisova-Kiefer (3.30 @ Ladbrokes) :( Vaidisova has shown she's clearly one for the future given the way she's destroyed her opponents in the opening rounds and quite honestly, I can only see one outcome here if she carries on her imperious form against the Croat upstart, Lisnak. Moya should also beat Sanguinetti at a canter as his all round game is just so much more complete than Sanguinetti's and needless to say, his experience at this level will help him big time as well. Moving on to the match with the most divided opinion of the day now :lol . Murray should have the beating of Clement as I've no doubt who the better player is - Ferrero is a spent force and nothing like the player he was in 2003, so Clement beating him in straight sets is obviously not something to read too much into. However, I must stress Murray will need to get the job done in 4 as I just can't see him going the distance, especially with Clement being such a renowned specialist in playing deciders(he still holds the record for having recorded the longest match in a Grand Slam in the Open era when his match with Santoro went to 16-14 in the decider at the Aussie Open a few years back) - obviously, given the fact Murray has shown to be eternally overwhelmed by nerves in the decisive set will only play into Clement's hands. That said, 5/6 is a fair price and I'd back the Scottish upstart to beat the inconsistent Frenchman any day. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 160.90pts Profits/Losses : +60.90pts

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th)

Sorry, prices from Tote. I see Davydenko is now 1/3 from the 1/2 I originally got at Stan James. A good sign, hopefully.

That bastard is never far away from controversy - he started out at 1.16, moved out to 1.36(or even 1.40 at some places) and has now dropped back to 1.28. Any with any links on what his arrangement with the mafia is today? :lol

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Davydenko was 1/2 to start with at Stan James. I know because I tipped him at that price (see earlier post) and it's on my betslip at SJ. The early bird catches the value!

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Davydenko truly pathetic today. How he can lose to Srichaphan the way he's been playing is beyond me. Now a double let down after both my trebles got 2 out of 3 right. Moya as well, though he is notoriously unreliable. Nieminen struggling now, after being 2 sets up. Mirnyi keeps letting Serra back into it. Wonder why we bother.... :rollin

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th)

Davydenko truly pathetic today. How he can lose to Srichaphan the way he's been playing is beyond me. Now a double let down after both my trebles got 2 out of 3 right. Moya as well, though he is notoriously unreliable. Nieminen struggling now, after being 2 sets up. Mirnyi keeps letting Serra back into it. Wonder why we bother.... :rollin

Hate to say this, but nothing related to that cnut(I thought Safin's erratic mood swings is as bad as you'd expect from a Russian, but obviously Davydenko is taking the integrity of the game to new heights) amazes me anymore - that mug's a walking scandal and how the ATP doesn't go after him is anyone's guess! Hope you didn't lose too much on that ba$tard though...

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) No, the days of relying on him are long gone. More annoyingly, Almagro loses to Dent by exactly 7 games. Serving at 5-5 in the fourth, just needing to hold to guarantee a loss by 6 games (if he lost the tie break), at advantage Almagro, and goes and loses his serve and the set 5-7. Starting bank: 100 points Profit: - 39.61 points. Only Rochus to come to complete the Mirnyi/Nieminen/Rochus treble, though. Surely can't get 2 out of 3 again....

[Jamesk]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) Dont fancy Murrays chances in this heat, in-running betting the way to go here

[bunglesix]

Re: Tennis : US Open 2005 (August 29th - September 11th) I hope he steps it up a gear in the 2nd... Come on Murray Mint !