Racing Chat - Sunday 11th July

[Darran]

Hopefully we finally get to see More Buck's at Stratford today after him being a non-runner the last twice. Here is what I said about him when he was due to run at Perth at the start of the month.

More Buck's was due to run at Cartmel last Friday have been well backed and then had a bruised foot before the meeting was called off. Clearly it's not kept him out for long as he runs in the 4.15 at Perth today and he looks potentially thrown in. A year ago he was 4th in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen off 124 and although he lost his way after that it does mean he is very well handicapped now off a mark of 99. What you have to factor in is the fact the Bowen yard were in dreadful form last year and they are now having winners again. This horse has also found his form again pointing. He was impressive in making most of the running in his first 3 victories this year and was then 2nd last time to Risk And Roll. That one currently has a mark of 122 so even though he was 15L behind him that still puts him on a decent mark. That race was over 2m4f as well and he has clearly thrived for going over 3m in points. I think his jockey will blast him off in front and play catch me if you can.

 

I think he has around 15lbs in hand of his current handicap mark and I think this looks a lesser contest than the Perth race. However he was set to be favourite there and at the moment he isn't for this. Franz Klammer has the potential to be the big fly in the ointment. For a start he is likely to want to contest the lead which could be an issue. Also there has to be a chance that he is still well handicapped. 10lbs for a 25L win over course and distance a month ago could possibly be viewed as lenient. It was also just his 2nd start over fences and his 1st one was one of his better efforts as well. The one thing to cling onto though is that when you have a horse win by that far in this grade you do have to wonder to what level the others ran to and maybe he was the only one to run his race. Ultimately though he could be well handicapped still and if he hadn't been in the race I would have had plenty of confidence. On the flip side he helps the price though and hopefully More Buck's well be too good.

 

I have to mention Babytaggle who regular readers will know is a horse I have kept a close eye on after his good run for a long way at Huntingdon in May. The problem here though is he is unlikely to be able to get to the lead and he will need a weaker race than this in my view. I will be keeping a very close eye on him though and I might take a small bet e/w without the front two in the betting as there is a lot of dead wood in this race past the front two in the market. Amazing to see What A Laugh back at the age of 16yo as well given I was tipping him up in hunter chases back in 2012!

 

More Buck's @ 3/1 with everyone

[cannotbebeat]

Salisbury
1.15 Ask The Wind 8/1 - £5 single

Stratford
3.13 Celestial Force 7/4 - £10 single

4.23 Big G 13/8 - £10 single

and £10 double.

As some of you know I use jockey/trainer combinations to pick my horses and have been doing fairly well recently starting bank £250.00 has risen to £638.63. Last night I had a quick look and 1 of my selections Ask The Wind was in the same race as Roman Mist who I personally thought would win it. What to do, the jockey on mine Mollie Phillips has won her last 4 rides in a row for me and owes me nothing with prices of 15/8, 7/2, 11/8 and 9/1. I always go back to that old saying a horse doesn't know what price it is. Anyhow problem solved this morning as Roman Mist is a non runner. So Mollie sorry for doubting you or the horse, go out their be safe and give it your all, you can't ask for more than that.

Good luck all CNBB.

[Wildgarden]

150 salisbury sea marrib 5.2 betdaq and penywern taverner 11.5

 

[NAGNAGNAGNEIGH]

3.35 Salisbury

a 5 runner class 4 handicap.

Im prepared to take on the favourite Deep snow with Nell Quickly.

The 14lb pull for the 3 year old is very enticing.

Deep Snow has course form and carries the weight but will she be able to carry 10 stone up the hill on good to soft and with showers forecast ?

Nell Quickly ran well at Sandown which has a similar finishing straight

 

Nell Quickly - 10 points Win

 

[The Equaliser]

My Yankee today is:

2.25 Sal Tartan Chief 85/40

3.35 Sal Nell Quickly 15/8 (had to think twice before opposing @TheBrigadier's Nap)

4.00 Perth Ming Dynasty 15/8

5.10 Perth Amalfi Doug 9/4 (£2.20 win at 3.71 = £5.84 ins bet if now yankee winners up to this point)

one 50p win yankee = £5.50 = £125.06 if all 4 win

Total stakes = £7.70

Hopefully will come back later

 

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

Last autumn I saw a horse so impressive on two occasions I wrote it on my wall. I was going to back it anywhere it turned up and at any distance and any going.

I have not seen it since, until today it goes straight into G1 company at Deauville (2.50) That horse is Midtown a Godolphin horse trained by the genius Mr Fabre, currently available at 4/1. whatever it does today will set it up for the season.

An observation based on past and present. I have noticed that Fabre does not or rarely uses Barcelona on his other horses, he has to use him on Goldophin Horses. i follow Fabre religiously and i would love to be a fly on the wall for the conversation after that race, He managed to get beat by 2 outsiders because he chose to try to beat Battleground and forgot he had to beat the others also. IMHO, He Barcelona does plenty wrong far too often (remember pour moi in the derby?) he got away with that one. Midtown is a serious racehorse and i will get my money back soon as it runs next so im not bothered about losing but i do get a bit irked when jockeys think they are better than the horse.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, cannotbebeat said:

Last night I had a quick look and 1 of my selections Ask The Wind was in the same race as Roman Mist who I personally thought would win it.

I often have more than one horse in the same race that pass my selection criteria. I simply choose the one that is the shortest odds, long term it shouldn't make any difference to my profits but it will increase my strike rate and reduce the length of losing runs.

 

[azzybear]

ultramarine 1.00 burristo 2.05

[roger2256]

July +2 

1pt level stakes win only 

14.38 Str Flying Garry 10/1Lost

14.45 Fai Fit for Function 12/1 Lost

15.20 Fai Thunder Beauty 12/1 Lost

17.45 Per Sarvi 4/1 Won 9/2

Prices as of now b365 

+1.5

July +3.5  

Edited July 11, 2021 by roger2256
Result

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection.

Salisbury 3.35

NELL QUICKLY 15/8

[Wildgarden]

3 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

150 salisbury sea marrib 5.2 2nd betdaq and penywern taverner 11.5

 

-2 ;-(

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Yankee today is:

2.25 Sal Tartan Chief 85/40

3.35 Sal Nell Quickly 15/8 (had to think twice before opposing @TheBrigadier's Nap)

4.00 Perth Ming Dynasty 15/8

5.10 Perth Amalfi Doug 9/4 (£2.20 win at 3.71 = £5.84 ins bet if now yankee winners up to this point)

one 50p win yankee = £5.50 = £125.06 if all 4 win

Total stakes = £7.70

Hopefully will come back later

 

 

 

 

Got a double in so far but won't pay for the Yankee.  I have cancelled my £2.20 win bet in the 5.10 and replaced it wit a 70p win bet on Bet365 at 5/2

 

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Got a double in so far but won't pay for the Yankee.  I have cancelled my £2.20 win bet in the 5.10 and replaced it wit a 70p win bet on Bet365 at 5/2

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Well at least I got a treble and 3 doubles.  The return including the small win bet was £28.78 less £6.20 = £22.58 net profit.  I feel that I would have got better value by having £5.50 single win bet on a 4/1 shot!  This makes my new balance £739.23 (Bank £1056.22)

I must say that I don't like this Yankee bet.  I know that it costs 50p less than my Trixie and I have an extra selection but I only have 1/3 of my Trixie stake going on to my selections.  I am going back to my Trixie bet in future.  I will stick with a singles bet on the last selection should the first two fail to win.  This to me is an excellent strategy for anyone who loves their multiple bets.  Further more and I feel that this is most important I will revert back to my main staking plan for my singles bets  For example £20 at 1/1, £10 at 2/1, £5 at 4/1. £2.50 at 8/1 down to £1 at 20/1.  My Trixies will just be treated as small side bets and my main bets will be singles.

Back to Monday dross tomorrow.  Ayr and Wolves have only class 5 & 6 races.  Lingfield has one Class 3 and one class 4 race, whilst Newton Abbot has 3 class 4 races, two class 4 with two short priced runners, one other with a 13/8 favourite and a class 3 with a 2/1 favourite.  Racing at WIndsor has been abandoned.  Not a lot of class action to choose from in the UK imo

 

   

[MCLARKE]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection.

Salisbury 3.35

NELL QUICKLY 15/8

Won at 11/10.

20 / 60 + 25.19 lsp.