Tyler12 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 In one NLHE hand today, there were four players in the hand, pre-flop, and the flop was rainbow 8-high. It was checked to showdown, and by the river, there were two pair on board. All four players chopped the pot, since all held Ax So the question is: What are the odds of 4 players holding Ax pre-flop. Any mathematicians out there want to show us how it's done? If so, go ahead and let us know. If not, I'll have a poke at finding a solution tomorrow... Once this one's done, let's keep the thread going with more scenarios... httpsdontclickmyspammylinks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avongirl Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Hi Tyler12 I'm sure someone will be able to help you with how to work this out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muttley Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 I'm not a mathematician, but I'll have a go. The chances of being dealt an Ace preflop is 6/1. Therefore the chances of four players being dealt one Ace is approx 6x6x6x6/1 or 1,296/1 This assumes that there were only four players dealt in. If it was 6 handed or more, the odds drop considerably (don't ask me) It also assumes no-one 3-bets with their hands forcing out the raggy Aces, and it also assumes no-one (correctly) folds their raggy Aces preflop. avongirl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 15 hours ago, muttley said: The chances of being dealt an Ace preflop is 6/1. Therefore the chances of four players being dealt one Ace is approx 6x6x6x6/1 or 1,296/1 If you followed the initial logic of that statement wouldn't the conclusion be 7 x 7 x 7 x 7 = 2400/1? As I just happened on this post and don't really play much poker I don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole. After a bit of thinking and calculator stabbing I ended up with decimal odds of 2011.47. I'll leave it there and look to see what the final consensus is! avongirl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avongirl Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 I'm still waiting for the initial poster to log back in and possibly edit in some spam (and I apologise if he is genuine), but I thought in the meantime it might provoke some odds discussion which we haven't had for a while. harry_rag and Kingdom for 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 I'm more used to trying to work out the odds of a header being scored in any given game or player x being shown a card but, if I let myself, I can get distracted by anything probability related! avongirl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muttley Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: If you followed the initial logic of that statement wouldn't the conclusion be 7 x 7 x 7 x 7 = 2400/1? As I just happened on this post and don't really play much poker I don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole. After a bit of thinking and calculator stabbing I ended up with decimal odds of 2011.47. I'll leave it there and look to see what the final consensus is! Yeah. Like i said, I'm no mathematician. The truth is, even very good players wouldn't necessarily know the answer to the original question, though it is solvable. In play, you really only need to know the percentages for hitting your outs, like "What are the chances of hitting my flush with one card to come?" (20%), or "What are my chances of sucking out on Andy Bell if he calls my all in bluff when all I have is Ten high and a gut shot?" (98.5%) ian309, avongirl and harry_rag 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingdom for Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 On 7/14/2021 at 4:48 PM, muttley said: ........... I'm no mathematician. The truth is, even very good players wouldn't necessarily know the answer to the original question, though it is solvable............ I am niot a poker player but my feeling is that good poker players develop an instinct that is effective. I am a somewhat pseudomathematician. so I get drawn to these sort of questions, particularly if there is no obvious prevailing source of a solution. I like to have questions like this when I am cycling. It gives me something else to think about when I am cycling up hills and the brain needs a diversion from the persistent reminders that I am gasping for breath and my muscles are in pain. avongirl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muttley Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 8 hours ago, Kingdom for said: I am niot a poker player but my feeling is that good poker players develop an instinct that is effective. This is true, but the best way to develop the instinct is to study the maths. I would recommend playing around with the (free) program Equilab*, and replaying hands you have played. For the more adventurous there is a program called Flopzilla which is very useful, though that isn't free. * Don't run Equilab when you're playing on PokerStars, as they pick up on it and threaten you with a ban! avongirl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avongirl Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 On 7/14/2021 at 2:04 PM, avongirl said: I'm still waiting for the initial poster to log back in and possibly edit in some spam And there it is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muttley Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 (edited) On 10/25/2021 at 10:52 AM, lagata89 said: I'm sure that I could be better at poker if I were better at statistics... Download Equilab from Pokerstrategy.com (it's free), and play around with it. You'll get proficient in no time at all. Edited February 22, 2022 by avongirl quoted post deleted due to edited in spam avongirl and lagata89 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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