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Racing Chat - Friday 26th March


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As I wrote yesterday there are a lot of very open looking races today at Newbury, Musslebugh and Lingfield today so I feel it is best to restrict one's bets to minimise risk.

Looked at Newbury so far.

1.00 Very tricky race with money for Hang In there and Clermont but I'm not tempted

1.30 Corrany quite strong in the market but has to defy a 10lbs rise.  There is money for Minella Encore but backers have to rely on headgear to work the miracle for the Doc.  I'd sooner back the favourite but I'm not playing

2.05 Storm Goddess.  I have had £3 to win on this at 5.3.  Looks a good bet. Let's hope that Tom Buckley can stay in the saddle this time

2.40 This race looks a bit of a puzzle at the distance. I'm not convinced that Saint De Reve is a proper class 3 winner in the making.  I'll keep my powder dry for this race.

3.15 I do like the look of Coeur Serein.  It carries a 6lbs penalty and I'm not so sure I want to put £7 on it.  I'm still thinking about it.  I don't like Santon much it has to improve on its jumping before I will put money on it.

Poss back later

 

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All prices Bet365:
 

12.30 Newbury - 1pt win Giovanni Royale @ 22/1

Little bit of a punt given he's 22/1 in a 3 runner race but he's definitely got ability and could run better than the price suggests here. The favourite ought to win but has raced quite freely over 2 miles so wouldn't want to be getting involved at 1/5. This one ran well from the rear in a deep ground bumper full of good horses when last seen and getting weight, could cause a bit of an upset if ready to go.

1.30 Newbury - 1pt e/w The Devils Drop @ 20/1

Stopped quickly at Kempton last time and definitely needs to bounce back but is well handicapped on old form and conditions suit so will give him another go on the chance that he needed that run after 3 months off.

2.30 Musselburgh - 1pt win En Couleur @ 6/1

Has run well over hurdles so far but isn't the strongest finisher on soft ground and will relish handicapping over the minimum trip on good ground around an easy track so ought to go very close.

2.40 Newbury - 2pts win Buster Thomas @ 9/2

Was in good form at the back end of last year prior to running on unsuitable soft ground and has been given time off in the wet winter months. Returns under ideal conditions here and the stiffer track will suit him today.

3.15 Newbury - 1pt win Soyouthinksoagain @ 6/1

This is a bit tougher than last time out but shapes very much like he wants a trip on decent ground and that's what he gets here. Is related to some stout stayers and ran well at Ascot two starts back, staying on when unsuited by heavy ground and was coming home well over an insufficient trip when last seen. Can land this under ideal conditions I think.

3.25 Lingfield - 2pts win Halwa Azyan @ 11/2

Has done better lately but hasn't had things go his way including in better races than this. With a clear run and being able to hold its position through the contest, I think this one can take a lot of beating today. 

1.00 Newbury - Hang in There @ 9/4 and 2.50 Lingfield - Capla Crusader @ 3/1 double - Hang in There down the weights now facing perfect conditions (2 miles on a sound surface) and I think wins today. Capla Crusader not at his best the last twice but has a good opportunity to get an easyish lead today if breaking well and can make all if doing so. 

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6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

As I wrote yesterday there are a lot of very open looking races today at Newbury, Musslebugh and Lingfield today so I feel it is best to restrict one's bets to minimise risk.

Looked at Newbury so far.

1.00 Very tricky race with money for Hang In there and Clermont but I'm not tempted

1.30 Corrany quite strong in the market but has to defy a 10lbs rise.  There is money for Minella Encore but backers have to rely on headgear to work the miracle for the Doc.  I'd sooner back the favourite but I'm not playing

2.05 Storm Goddess.  I have had £3 to win on this at 5.3.  Looks a good bet. Let's hope that Tom Buckley can stay in the saddle this time

2.40 This race looks a bit of a puzzle at the distance. I'm not convinced that Saint De Reve is a proper class 3 winner in the making.  I'll keep my powder dry for this race.

3.15 I do like the look of Coeur Serein.  It carries a 6lbs penalty and I'm not so sure I want to put £7 on it.  I'm still thinking about it.  I don't like Santon much it has to improve on its jumping before I will put money on it.

Poss back later

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Didn't back Coeur Serein and it won at 6/4 by 3/4 length.  My other bet lost.  So a £3 loss on the day = a new balance of £528.70 (Bank £500).  Tried another couple of unpublished bets based upon market movements and form analysis.  Didn't win but had 2 seconds.  Definitely feel that listing out overnight prices is of benefit and will continue in this vein.  I will dismiss drifters and back the horses that are shortening in price but do appear to have a decent chance of winning the race under review.

Start of the flat tomorrow.  Won't be betting much but may have a small wager at Doncaster.  Good luck to all grappling with the start of the new season

 

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