The Brigadier Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 There’s a bumper day for terrestrial TV viewers this Saturday with a projected 11 races to be shown on ITV. Included amongst those are some that have been ‘rescued’ from Cheltenham’s recent abandoned meeting and also the Welsh National which was lost to waterlogging on December 27th. My thoughts on the latter can be found earlier in the forum and I’ll stick with Springfield Fox for whom it can not be soft enough. It’s forecast a dry week in South Wales but the covers are down on the track and I think when they’re off on Saturday we could be looking at very tacky ground. There's one race at Kempton which has taken my eye and think there’s a couple of bets here. The race in question is the 1.10 the Unibet Extra Place Offers handicap Chase run over 2m 4f 110yds. The first thing as always to mention about this race is that the ground is currently soft with a predominantly dry and cold forecast so I would be expecting good to softish ground. 23 have been declared at the 5 day declaration stage in a race in which 20 can run but the history of this race shows that the race does tend to cut up pretty badly with the last 8 running’s runners being 8,4,7,7,5,9,8,14 (latest first), which gives an average of 7.75% runners over that time span. 12 of the 23 have alternate engagements also so don’t be shocked if the race cuts up. Right let’s get on with the two to back then! Mrs Jane Williams has her small team in excellent shape with her last 5 runners finishing F1253 (the fall was in the lead when coming down looking the likely winner) and her ERICK LE ROUGE looks the one to be with each way. His last three runs certainly wouldn’t inspire you but his Kempton form figures of 1114 (the 4th was in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices Chase) might. He actually won this last season from Gowiththeflow with the pair pulling clear of the third that day. His official mark that day was 134 and on Saturday he will race off of 137 having been dropped 4lb for his two lack lustre runs this season. The first of those was at Fontwell in October when the trainer’s representative said the horse had a breathing problem. Well low and behold the gelding has had a wind operation since we last saw him at Wincanton 9 weeks ago. So in short we have an in form trainer with a horse who has no other engagements this week, loves the track, won this last year and has had a wind op since we last saw him. The other horse that jumped out at me as a big player is Kim Bailey’s ESPOIR DE ROMAY who has only had two runs over fences, beating Senior Citizen at Huntingdon in November and then an excellent 7 lengths second to Royale Pagaille at Haydock in desperate ground. The winner has gone on and bolted up in very impressive fashion at Kempton over Christmas boosting the Haydock form no end. ERIK LE ROUGE (pictured below)1 point each way @ 10/1 Hills ¼ odds 1-2-3 ESPOIR DE ROMAY 1 point each way @ 6/1 Paddy Power ¼ odds 1-2-3-4 yossa6133 and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 (edited) I'm being brave next weekend ....got the 2 x 33pt rollover bets from last weekend ....I could just pick a small race but I've got a better chance of picking a big priced winner in the big races so I'm gonna go for it ......first race I'm currently looking at is the rescheduled welsh national .......Ive passed it through the computer and I have ...... The two amigos 355 Christmas in April 345 Cloudy glen 341 Well ......that seems pretty cut and dry .....what's anyones opinions on top 2 here ....especially 2 amigos....do you think hes worth putting up as the rollover bet given theres 19runners....gulp .....christmas in april is no mug though ....and looks a good type for this sort of race ...? Currently 2 amigos is around 10/1 ...so that would be a 360 odd pt return bet Edited January 4, 2021 by richard-westwood Villa Chris and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I'm being brave next weekend ....got the 2 x 33pt rollover bets from last weekend ....I could just pick a small race but I've got a better chance of picking a big priced winner in the big races so I'm gonna go for it ......first race I'm currently looking at is the rescheduled welsh national .......Ive passed it through the computer and I have ...... The two amigos 355 Christmas in April 345 Cloudy glen 341 Well ......that seems pretty cut and dry .....what's anyones opinions on top 2 here ....especially 2 amigos....do you think hes worth putting up as the rollover bet given theres 19runners....gulp .....christmas in april is no mug though ....and looks a good type for this sort of race ...? Currently 2 amigos is around 10/1 ...so that would be a 360 odd pt return bet I posted the other week I was on The Two Amigos and Christmas In April. They were both top rated after I took out the top weights. Not sure it would be the same now with the different going, but you’d have to give both horses a good chance. The Brigadier and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: I posted the other week I was on The Two Amigos and Christmas In April. They were both top rated after I took out the top weights. Not sure it would be the same now with the different going, but you’d have to give both horses a good chance. I think I'm looking at this slightly diff .....a race like this needs experience and two amigos finished 5th in this last year off the same mark .....arguably that makes him not good enough to win but I think he will have learnt a lot ....wont hold any fears and shoukd be a little stronger this time around .....that puts him finishing in the frame at least so I'm thinking of just trusting the ratings ...if he's close up end of race hes got a chance ... The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Does this mean no racing until mid feb at earliest ? The football has to stop so I’d imagine no racing??? Cheltenham festival will be touch and go. The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Cant see why racing cant go ahead ....current safety precautions seem to be working really well with a great record ....courses have been strict with temperature checking and only allowing fully checked and necessary staff only so seems pretty safe to me The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Same here, but just wondered as it’s tier 5 lockdown . I can cope with no footy. The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Football can carry on, I think. The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 33 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: The football has to stop so I’d imagine no racing I thought it said elite sport will continue ? The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I thought it said elite sport will continue ? My bad it did . I just heard someone say on the news after his statement no football will go ahead, but then they backtracked. MCLARKE and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: My bad it did . I just heard someone say on the news after his statement no football will go ahead, but then they backtracked. Good. I was dreading having to update the naps table with all those foreign results ! Villa Chris, The Brigadier and vikki37 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 (edited) The other race I'm considering as the 2nd bet saturday is the lanzarote hurdle but I've rated the current top 20 runners as One true king 377+ Shang tang 374 Shinobi 370 Just cant decide currently between these top two .....one true king might go off fav currently around 7 or 8 .....he destroyed a 2 mile field scoring 138rpr .....that was good for another 8pts so I'd put him on 146......his official rating will be 132 saturday I think so on paper hes a absolutely thrown in (stone to the good ) ....but will have to travel 5f further and that's a big factor Shang tang isnt really lighting up the track but has been performing well in some tough races .....will like the ground.. ..gets the distance and trainer has stated that improvement is not impossible ...... Yiu can see the dilemma ....proven horse ??...or up and coming star trying something new .....?? Didn't want to split the stake but might have to have a small saver bet in this race but still gotta pick the main bet though .....cant decide Edited January 6, 2021 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: The other race I'm considering as the 2nd bet saturday is the lanzarote hurdle but I've rated the current top 20 runners as One true king 377+ Shang tang 374 Shinobi 370 Just cant decide currently between these top two .....one true king might go off fav currently around 7 or 8 .....he destroyed a 2 mile field scoring 138rpr .....that was good for another 8pts so I'd put him on 146......his official rating will be 132 saturday I think so on paper hes a absolutely thrown in (stone to the good ) ....but will have to travel 5f further and that's a big factor Shang tang isnt really lighting up the track but has been performing well in some tough races .....will like the ground.. ..gets the distance and trainer has stated that improvement is not impossible ...... Yiu can see the dilemma ....proven horse ??...or up and coming star trying something new .....?? Didn't want to split the stake but might have to have a small saver bet in this race but still gotta pick the main bet though .....cant decide Well he’s won a PTP race over 2mile 4f, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll stay. He’s won comfortably at 2m more than once , so I’d say there’s scope for further. Don’t listen to me though for crying out loud ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Well he’s won a PTP race over 2mile 4f, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll stay. He’s won comfortably at 2m more than once , so I’d say there’s scope for further. Don’t listen to me though for crying out loud ? In these situations I tend to revert back base and say dont back a horse that has got to do more than hes done before.....so my heads saying back shang tang ....the previous winners of this race usually had placed form beyond 2m3f which makes sense and seems to back that up....the only thing that's upsetting the cart is on paper one true king looks about a stone well in so if he gets the distance then he will be very very hard to beat .....I just dont know .....that is presuming I have the ratings right in the first place ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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