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Racing Chat, Friday 1st January


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All prices Bet365:

12.40 Southwell - 1pt e/w Daafy @ 10/1

1.15 Southwell - 1pt e/w Irreverent @ 14/1

1.20 Musselburgh - 1pt e/w Elf De Re @ 11/1

1.55 Musselburgh - 1pt e/w Voix Du Reve @ 28/1

2.30 Musselburgh - 1pt e/w Racing Pulse @ 18/1

3.05 Musselburgh - 1pt e/w Garde La Victoire @ 10/1

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What a blow with Exeter abandoned as the course is frozen.  I only had 5 non handicap races to look at in the first place which has now been reduce to two.

In the 3.00 at Sou Silent Queen trading at around 6/5.  In its favour is that the horse is clear top rated by Timeform and RPR and way ahead of the other runners.  It also has Ben Curtis aboard which shows that the trainer means business. Plus 5 furlongs looks to the right trip.  The downside is that the horse hasn't been out for 114 days after finishing lame at Wolverhampton.  It is its first run on Fibresand that doesn't suit a lot of horses.  Also there looks to be at least three live contenders runnning against it.  Not so sure I want  to risk £10 on this one so I won't.

Next is 12.45 Muss Fiveandtwenty.  This one looks to be a sure fire winner barring any mishaps.  I find it annoying that an outsider was withdrawn at about 11.30 am and the bookies siezed the opportunity to cut its odds from 4/9 to 1/3.  Even if I put £20 on this horse I would be lucky to get back £7.00 assuming that it wins.  I will be interested to know what price my fellow PL members would accept should one be having a bet on a horse that looks to be all over a winner barring accidents? Perhaps @MCLARKE and others could reply with some thoughts?  I will put this up in the Naps comp as I would like it to contribute to the "most winners" for the month.  However, I am not putting £20 on it

I wish everyone a good start, middle and finish to 2021 ?

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5 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

150 southwell the greatest showman 85/40 betvictor out quickly following yesterday's 2nd and at a decent weight with jockey allowance. Won backed heavily to evens.

330 southwell false Id 10-1 Ew sbk nice 2nd lto could repeat or better at same distance today. Unplaced this time looked untidy from the off couldn't get rhythm going

Results

Edited by Wildgarden
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10 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I don't really have any minimum odds in general, it depends what system I am using.

As an example, with Ralphie's "Quick System" those horses with odds less than 11/10 have a poor record so I tend to avoid them.

Mclarke can you have a look at my query on the racing tips topic, I didn't quote so you may have missed my query

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