richard-westwood Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 350 newc Indian pursuit 255 Jan van hoof 253 Open race but good value on top 2 here so I have to play Indian pursuit 10pt win 9.0 betfair Jan van hoof 10pt win 19.0 betfair The Brigadier, BBBC and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 420 newc Moxy mares 260 Dandys angel 257 Again....good value so I have to play Moxy mares 10pt win 11/1 willh Dandys angel 10pt win 28.0 betfair Wildgarden and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Very interesting runner today in the 1.20 Warwick. TEMPLIER is for me over priced at around the 10/1 (Hills 4 places 1/5 odds) mark. Trained by Katie Stephens, who's a small permit trainer in Allensmore in Herefordshire, he probably needed his re-appearance back over hurdles when 80/1in November. But his chasing form from last season needs close scrutiny. He was a 25/1 winner at Hereford from a 6lb lower mark than today's from Delface and was serving it up to the now 140 rated chaser Ibleo when crashing out at the last at Wincanton. Ibleo has obviously improved plenty since and is now rated 140 so Templier looks a value each way bet at a double figure price with the firms paying extra places (Skybet are 5 places 1/5 the odds). I don't know much about Ms Stephens but the only horse she has trained to win over the last 5 years has been Templier twice from 130 runners from her yard so I'm sure that factor will keep his odds relatively big. Hills actually put him in at 22/1 at the 48 hour stage which looks far too big and the 14/1 was all taken last night. TEMPLIER (1.20 Warwick) 1 point each way @ 9/1 Skybet (1/5 odds1,2,3,4,5) or 10/1 Hills (1/5th odds 1,2,3,4) Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 58 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 420 newc Moxy mares 260 Dandys angel 257 Again....good value so I have to play Moxy mares 10pt win 11/1 willh Dandys angel 10pt win 28.0 betfair One of my picks is Dandy's angel Ew with it down in class and some half decent efforts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Last day of the month/year. I like to try and find an outsider so as to have a chance of winning the Naps competition on the last day when I'm trailing behind. The problem is that I find this time consuming and having looked at nine possible selections I then find myself wanting to bet on a few of them. I'll post them up here and hopefully come back later with one or two selections in non handicap races . 2.00 Ling Patolus (my nap in the PL comp) 70p win at 33/1 2.25 War Little Boy Boru £1 win at 16/1 4.20 Nc Vertice 70p win at 33/1 This is trained by Tracy Waggott and although Curfewed looks to be the best of the stable entries with Tom Eaves aboard I think that this one will run well. Looks to be 5lbs better off with Melgate Majeure despite finishing in front of that horse last time. Very confusing to me. A wacking £2.40 total staked on outsiders from me today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: One of my picks is Dandy's angel Ew with it down in class and some half decent efforts. I really like moxy mare ....I'm hoping for a big run today but I think dandys angel is way overpriced ....shoukd be around 12/1 I reckon so 28.0 looks a bit silly ....keep playing the value bets and sooner or later one of them will go in ...that's my strategy lol MCLARKE, Wildgarden and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 All prices Bet365: 1.00 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Night Bear @ 12/1 Didn't take to hurdling last time but has done little wrong in his flat career to date. Split two well handicapped horses a couple of starts back before failing to threaten from off the pace at Newmarket but looks on an okay mark and shaped well on his previous all-weather start so looks overpriced here. 1.20 Warwick - 1pt e/w Rock on Aussie @ 11/1 Is a bridle horse but crept into things going well at Exeter last time over 2m3f when last seen before finding little. However, the drop back to the bare 2 miles around a sharp track ought to play to his strengths and off a basement mark can go well for a long way. 1.30 Lingfield - 1.5pts e/w Crane @ 7/1 Has shaped well in two starts to date and looks sure to win races off this sort of mark. Is a full brother to Bottom Bay who is rated much higher and that one also took a few runs to hit top form. Crane should be spot on now and I'd like to see him ridden handy here having got outpaced before staying on again last time. Looks a solid each-way bet. 1.50 Warwick - 1.5pts e/w Alberto's Dream @ 7/1 Enjoys a slog and the better ground blunted his stamina last time out when running well whilst being outpaced towards the end of the race. These softer conditions will suit and appears in good heart. Handicap mark is okay and I think he'll go very close. 2.25 Warwick - 1pt e/w Ballymagroarty Boy @ 14/1 Has been a bit in and out this season and never travelled at Plumpton last time but that came after two slogs and has been given a few weeks off since. He stays all day, his form over hurdles is good and he looks a class act in this field. Has weight taken off his back by the jockey and ought to be staying on at the finish. 3.35 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Aguerooo @ 7/1 Had no luck in the run last time and again conditions suit here. Hopefully is running himself into form at a lowly level and is drawn on the inside here. Will again need some luck given he'll come from behind but is definitely capable in this company and hopefully things fall kinder this afternoon. The Brigadier, The Equaliser and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 (edited) A few outsiders 3.10 punchestown Otzi 20/1 3rd 1.35 punchestown Coventry 22/1 6 places e w e bet365 2nd 50/1 shame i did e w e 1.05 punchestown Twilight girl 20/1 12.50 Warwick madam deluxe 20/1 5 places bet365 lost 2.50 Newcastle almost a angel 10/1 2nd all bets 50p e/w ??? Edited December 31, 2020 by LEE-GRAYS Wildgarden, The Equaliser and The Brigadier 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alancraik Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 todays top rated selections LINGFIELD 12:25 Thegreatestshowman 15/8 win LINGFIELD 13:00 Furzig 9/4 win ( next in rating # 6) LINGFIELD 14:00 Fox Duty Free 8/13 win ( next in rating # 3) LINGFIELD 14:35 Queens Course 2/1 win (Next in rating # 7) The Brigadier, Wildgarden and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 (edited) I could only find four non handicap races today. I'll just have one bet. This is a £2 win bet at 13/2 on Desert Marathon in the 3.05 Ling with Hayley Turner on board. It seems to have lots going for it and the only negative seems to be a bad draw in stall 14. I suppose that Hunny Moon should win the 12.50 at Warwick but I don't think that Bourbon Beauty will be a push over even with a 7lbs penalty. Sea La Rosa in the 2.15 Nc is trading at around 1/2 and worse so the bookies taking no chances on this one. I'll leave it alone The Paul Nichols trained Shearer is trading around 4/7 in the 3.25 at Warwick so I'll skip that one as well. As can be seen above with three meetings there are very few non-handicap races to bet on. I once read that that handicap races are very popular. Haha, you just have to look at who sponsors a lot of these to see that it is the greedy bookmakers who know that is very difficult for us punters to fathom out a winner when in theory all horses are supposed to cross the winning post line at the same time ?. Happy new year to all PL contributors this year. They have worked very hard in trying to eke out some value for us all. ===================================================================================================== A complete blank today. I had an extra 50p on so the loss today is £4.90. This leaves a balance of £541.30 (£500 Bank) so at least a profitable month using primarily non-handicap selections. Still not an easy task to make money but it seems to me a lot less hard than grappling with handicap races. I will continue this strategy into 2021 and see how it goes. Happy New Year to all Punters Lounge members; may you all prosper in 2021 ? Edited December 31, 2020 by The Equaliser Results Update The Brigadier and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 A couple of young handicappers for today. WARWICK 2.25 SHAH AN SHAH 16/1 PUNCHESTOWN 2.40 WINGIN A PRAYER 7/1 The Equaliser, The Brigadier and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 420 Newcastle Dandy's angel win and place Betfair sp / 25-1 paddy power for Ew double 450 Newcastle perfect soldier win and place Betfair sp / 18-1 paddy power for Ew double 493-1 Ew double paddy power and the Betfair sp wins. LEE-GRAYS and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger2256 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 (edited) Dec -2 1 pt level stakes win only 15.50 New Debawtry 16/1 Lost 16.20 New Judgement of Paris 40/1 Lost 16.50 New Atranfan 14/1 Won return 22/1 Prices as of now b365 +20 Dec +18 83 bets just 5 wins ( much lower than I would hope for ) and an 18pt profit . However things are not exactly as they seem . Today's winner I backed at 33/1 . (10p rule 4 ) There were three other winners I forgot to add , one in particular made me angry with myself . MC has mentioned sky bog policy , I was caught out with will hill , I put my bet on too early and sods law it won , I took 40/1 plus boost made it 44/1 , 'Gossip' returned at 66/1 ( 97 on bfsp) . So beware of bog times , will hill is 10am . I am not an after timer but include the others as a genuine mistake not adding . Nap selections also made a profit but not included above. At these prices long losing runs can be expected and inevitable so an adequate bank is essential (I've had 50 + losers on more than one occasion in recent years ) As is seen on the naps table , it only takes 1 winner to finish a month in profit . I will carry on starting in January from 0 Let's see how it goes Happy New year to everyone and let's hope for a better year Edited December 31, 2020 by roger2256 Result Wildgarden, The Equaliser and The Brigadier 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 hours ago, The Brigadier said: Very interesting runner today in the 1.20 Warwick. TEMPLIER is for me over priced at around the 10/1 (Hills 4 places 1/5 odds) mark. Trained by Katie Stephens, who's a small permit trainer in Allensmore in Herefordshire, he probably needed his re-appearance back over hurdles when 80/1in November. But his chasing form from last season needs close scrutiny. He was a 25/1 winner at Hereford from a 6lb lower mark than today's from Delface and was serving it up to the now 140 rated chaser Ibleo when crashing out at the last at Wincanton. Ibleo has obviously improved plenty since and is now rated 140 so Templier looks a value each way bet at a double figure price with the firms paying extra places (Skybet are 5 places 1/5 the odds). I don't know much about Ms Stephens but the only horse she has trained to win over the last 5 years has been Templier twice from 130 runners from her yard so I'm sure that factor will keep his odds relatively big. Hills actually put him in at 22/1 at the 48 hour stage which looks far too big and the 14/1 was all taken last night. TEMPLIER (1.20 Warwick) 1 point each way @ 9/1 Skybet (1/5 odds1,2,3,4,5) or 10/1 Hills (1/5th odds 1,2,3,4) 5th at 28/1 !! Needless to say i played with a firm paying 4 places ? Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Unlucky. Again a warning that Sky do not pay BOG in races where they offer extra places so you would only have been paid ay 9/1 rather than 28/1. The extra place offers from Sky look tempting but by the time you factor in that the odds are often lower than others and they don't offer BOG they rarely offer any real value. The only time I bet with Sky these days is with the money back as cash offers when the favourite is a short price. calva decoy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 (edited) 3.25 War Shearer £5 win at 2.02 I/R Betfair Exchange in an attempt top recoup losses Cancelled but should have left it; might have got matched Edited December 31, 2020 by The Equaliser cancelled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: A few outsiders 3.10 punchestown Otzi 20/1 3rd 1.35 punchestown Coventry 22/1 6 places e w e bet365 2nd 50/1 shame i did e w e 1.05 punchestown Twilight girl 20/1 12.50 Warwick madam deluxe 20/1 5 places bet365 lost 2.50 Newcastle almost a angel 10/1 2nd all bets 50p e/w ??? not bad day 3 places +£2.23 for day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: Unlucky. Again a warning that Sky do not pay BOG in races where they offer extra places so you would only have been paid ay 9/1 rather than 28/1. The extra place offers from Sky look tempting but by the time you factor in that the odds are often lower than others and they don't offer BOG they rarely offer any real value. The only time I bet with Sky these days is with the money back as cash offers when the favourite is a short price. Also note with sky , with the cash back races your stake money if you get a return DOES NOT count towards your ' FREE ' £5 bet if you spend £25 in a week . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 420 Newcastle Dandy's angel win and place Betfair sp / 25-1 paddy power for Ew double in on price but got nowhere 1.5f out dropped of the front. 450 Newcastle perfect soldier win and place Betfair sp / 18-1 paddy power for Ew double drifted out disappointing. Track is definitely better on right side today! 493-1 Ew double paddy power and the Betfair sp wins. Edited December 31, 2020 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 hours ago, roger2256 said: Dec -2 1 pt level stakes win only 15.50 New Debawtry 16/1 16.20 New Judgement of Paris 40/1 16.50 New Atranfan 14/1 Prices as of now b365 Well done nice win I covered my bets with atrafan ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 510 newcastle red bravo Ew given outside is doing better also down in trip 10.5 / 2.82 Betfair exchange. Also have this on a double already won lethal talent earlier.... So definitely want it to come in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Unlucky. Again a warning that Sky do not pay BOG in races where they offer extra places so you would only have been paid ay 9/1 rather than 28/1. The extra place offers from Sky look tempting but by the time you factor in that the odds are often lower than others and they don't offer BOG they rarely offer any real value. The only time I bet with Sky these days is with the money back as cash offers when the favourite is a short price. I wondered that I put on sky and only got £20.40 back lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: 510 newcastle red bravo Ew given outside is doing better also down in trip 10.5 / 2.82 Betfair exchange. Also have this on a double already won lethal talent earlier.... So definitely want it to come in. 4th just missing places ;-( outsider draw.won rest of races... Edited December 31, 2020 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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