Racing Chat - Friday December 18th

[yossa6133]

Backed Fiddlerontheroof (Ascot 3:05) 5/2 with Bet365. Will relish these conditions. Not done much wrong this season but really needs it nice and soft.

 

Well backed, jumped and travelled but Allart just too good ?

Edited December 18, 2020 by yossa6133

[MCLARKE]

Nicky Henderson had a better day on Tuesday with 3 winners from 8 runners so I will stick with him at Ascot today.

He has 2 runners in the 12.45, I will take a gamble with the second string EMIR SACREE at 28/1.

In the 2.30 he has NO ORDINARY JOE at 100/30.

 

[The Equaliser]

Not so sure about the racing today.  There is no non-handicap racing at Southwell.  There is some at Uttoxeter but the ground is Heavy. I looked at Tupelo Mississippi in the 1.10 but a big player has dropped out and its price has shortened into 6/5. Funny enough it wasn't favourite last night.  This was Jetaway Joey.  I think that all this is down to media influence as most tipsters go for Tupelo Mississppi.  though Timeform top rated is Jetaway Joey.  I think I'll let it win at that price and won't play.  There is of course some non- handicap racing at Ascot but as I said yesterday the big meetings brings big competition.  Stage Star is a possibility in the 3.35 as Harry Cobden chooses this over Knappers Hill.  The problem here is it is difficult to know which of a number of horses will improve the most for their first runs. At Wolverhampton there a couple of non-handicaps but the two races I looked at the favourites are odds on.

I have a busy day today with other domestic chores so may give racing a miss.

Good luck to all punting today

 

 

 

[peanut peanut]

Ascot 2.30 - Llandinabo Lad @ 10/3  b3

 

Ascot 3.05- Fiddlerontheroof @ 2/1 b3

A smart horse with suitable ground ,slight drop in trip a plus. 

[alancraik]

todays selections

SOUTHWELL 12:55 Stone Soldier 8/11 win

SOUTHWELL 13:30 Duke Of Firenze 6/1 e/w 2 Places

UTTOXETER 13:45 Truckers Highway 15/2 e/w 2 Places

UTTOXETER 14:20 Saint Dalina 4/6 win

plus e/w yankee

[roger2256]

Dec +6

1pt level stakes win only 

12.00 Nav  Mountain Hawk 8/1 Lost

*12.37 Utt Smashing Lass 66/1 Lost

Prices as of now b365 

* against short price fav

Probably additions later 

13.10 Utt Lightning Gold 66/1  Lost with so many non runners and very heavy ground it's worth a pt 

-3

Dec +3 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by roger2256
Result

[Bathtime For Rupert]

No big prices today with small fields about but pretty confident with those I've gone for so playing multiples. All prices Bet365:

12.45 Ascot - 2pts win Zyon @ 9/2

I'd love to find one at a big price in a competitive race but I think Zyon is absolutely rock solid at the head of the market and can take a lot of beating off a mark of 124. Won really well from a horse who has subsequently been rated 124 itself last time out and the form of its 3rd last year also reads well with the front two rated in the high 130s now. If anything, this softer ground can potentially suit as he looks a strong stayer at the trip and his sire's progeny has a 20% strike rate on heavy ground so there's a hell of a lot to like today.

1.45 Uttoxeter - 3pts win Duhallow Lad @ 9/4

Is well handicapped and will relish today's conditions which I think is likely to be more the case for him than his market rival. Looks sure to run his race and I'd be surprised and disappointed if he can't land the prize.

2.40 Southwell - 2pts win Mister Freeze @ 10/3

Was a huge eyecatcher last time, hampered early on before storming home for 3rd late in the day. Relishes these conditions and remains weighted to beat the favourite on a piece of form from last season. If he can get away to a better start here I'm hopeful his finishing kick can be enough to score.

1.55 Ascot - 2pts win Sir Valentine @ 7/2

Was beaten in a match last time but suddenly that form doesn't look bad now with his conqueror going on to hack up in a handicap off 140 next time. Sir Valentine runs off 133 here and his first start of the season when behind Fusil Raffles also looks rock solid form. Ought to be up to this mark and can go very close.

2,20 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Mr Harp @ 9/1

The favourite is clearly the one to beat here unpenalised for its recent win but that race was a bit messy and some of the market rivals failed to fire so I'm happy to chance an alternative. My nagging concern about Mr Harp is the heavy ground as he's unraced on worse than good to soft and Court Cave's often like a sounder surface. However, he's run consistently well in novice contests where shaping as if stamina is his strong suit. Looks fairly treated on handicap debut and 9/1 is a price worth chancing for all he is unproven in these conditions.

2.30 Ascot - 2pts win Llandinabo Lad @ 10/3

I have to go with form in the book in this race and you cannot fault what Tom Symond's runner has done over hurdles so far. Has swept aside two progressive and smart types with the minimum of fuss so far and has the credentials to take this in his stride too. A solid jumper, stays well and is the one to beat for me. 

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Nicky Henderson had a better day on Tuesday with 3 winners from 8 runners so I will stick with him at Ascot today.

He has 2 runners in the 12.45, I will take a gamble with the second string EMIR SACREE at 28/1.

In the 2.30 he has NO ORDINARY JOE at 100/30.

 

Wonderful result.  Early Xmas bonus for your followers ?

[yossa6133]

3 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

1.45 Uttoxeter - 3pts win Duhallow Lad @ 9/4

Is well handicapped and will relish today's conditions which I think is likely to be more the case for him than his market rival. Looks sure to run his race and I'd be surprised and disappointed if he can't land the prize.

Spot on Rupert, thanks for sharing 

 

wow 11/1 winner as well, unfortunately I didn't follow that one!

Edited December 18, 2020 by yossa6133

[The Equaliser]

Okay, I will play

2.30 Asc Soaring Glory £4.20 win at 3/1 = poss return of £16.80.  Dangers abound but this is worth taking a chance on

Well done to the Skeltons and Racing Post for the winner of this race.

Will now go for Stage Star in the 3.35 at Ascot.  I have placed £6.20 at 2.98 = £12.03 profit if win. Unmatched atm (2.90) But my in-running price should get matched.  Looks to be best of these.

I hope that Harry Cobden feels more sick than I do about choosing the wrong horse.  Or was it all planned anyway?

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by The Equaliser
Comment

[MCLARKE]

26 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Wonderful result.  Early Xmas bonus for your followers ?

Thanks. Always nice when they are backed from 28/1 in to 11/1. I'll stick with Mr Henderson for the rest of the month, he won't owe me anything now.

[LEE-GRAYS]

41 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Thanks. Always nice when they are backed from 28/1 in to 11/1. I'll stick with Mr Henderson for the rest of the month, he won't owe me anything now.

well done it had it on my glory hunt thread great minds think alike lol only 18/1 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Not bad but a couple of frustrations all the same. Done these at Wolverhampton (all prices Bet365):

4.10 - 1pt e/w Time To Reason @ 13/2

Easy in the market but I think that's as much down to the strength behind the favourite rather than anything else. That one does have a good chance and this track should suit but can't have it at the price and I think Time To Reason is rock solid returning to this venue. Goes well here including two cracking efforts recently off lower marks. Nothing jumps out as a negative so at 13/2, looks worth a go.

4.45 - 1pt e/w Cool Strutter @ 7/1

Has been fading out of things late on over 6f recently but that's seen its mark come down to a lowly 47 and this track along with the drop to 5f looking positives for its prominent racing style. Is drawn well enough to hopefully get handy and is certainly handicapped to go close and seems to be in decent enough form to suggest it can hold out in this class down to the minimum trip.

6.15 - 1pt e/w Uproar @ 10/1

Has shaped well in two novices to date and was 3rd behind a decent type at Newcastle when last seen. Shaped as if a stiffer test would suit so hopefully will get a quicker pace to aim at here and doesn't look badly treated in the bare evidence so far. This one's only full sibling is a smart miler so going handicapping off 66 looks more than plausible this evening.

7.15 - 1pt e/w Global Response @ 18/1

Needs to step up on its debut effort but it wasn't bad attempt, slowly away but showing pace and not beaten too far over 7f. Looked to have enough pace for the drop back to 6f today and James Tate's runners would typically come on for their debut outing. Related to some decent types so with natural improvement for its debut, can go well at a price.

8.15 - 2pts win Celtic Classic @ 11/2

Lots to like about this one today in my eyes, dropping down the handicap to a more than winnable mark and under what I consider to be optimum conditions. Was given too much to do at Lingfield last time and didn't act at Southwell the race before but previously has gone well over an insufficient 1m4f and 1m6f looks just about perfect. Track suits, handicap mark is fine and still only a 4yo so should be some more to come.