Racing Chat Monday 14 th December

[alancraik]

todays selections

AYR 13:10 River Frost 7/1 e/w 3 Places

PLUMPTON 13:53 Fizzlestix 9/2 e/w 2 Places

AYR 14:50 Glittering Love 2/1 win

plus e/w trixie

[The Equaliser]

Not many short priced favourites around or above even money that inspire great confidence today.

I have bitten the bullet and placed £8.30 to win on Culture (Tom Marquand rides) in the 7.05 at Kempton at 6/5 with a possible return of £18.26

I did come accross a few runners that look to have a good chance so I have had a bet on these as well.

2.23 Plum Legal OK £3.20 win at 9/2

5.00 Km Decadent (Tom Marquand again) £2.30 win 11/2 = poss return of £14.65.  Dubai Tigress is joint top rated but the track and trip are different to its best form)

6.00 Km Prize Fighting (Adam Kirby) £3.20 win at 4/1

Total win bets = £17.00 today.

Good luck to all punting today

 

 

 

 

 

 

[harrisman]

Cagnes sur mer  2.35

Piton Des Nieges. Could be a cliff horse however the fact that 

The Czech trainer J Vana has entered this very weak chase - with most of the big yards and jocks avoiding- after an impeded third last week in a small field (after a long lay off) makes me hopeful. If it can run to its back form 6/1 is surely too big. He also has another horse at foot of weights that will have a saver on just in case. 

[MCLARKE]

I had a winner with Henderson's Mister Fisher on Friday. Today he runs MISS FISHER in the 3.28 at Plumpton, available at 11/4.

[roger2256]

Dec +20

Few extras 

15.05 naas De Bennette  28/1 Lost

15.20Ayr Geonice 6/1 Lost

*15.35 Naas Some Venture 25/1 Lost

Prices as of now b365 

#12.05 Etoile D'ecosse is 20/1 with b365 and others from 100 last night still 50 on the exchange but only 4/1 place only , strange .

* Against a short price fav 

-3

Dec +17 

Edited December 14, 2020 by roger2256
Result

[Wildgarden]

810 kempton mont Kiara win only 9.6 and Leo minor e/w Betfair sp both look better to me at 6f and give value in my eyes.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

4.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Gloucestershire @ 25/1

Big price on debut but is entered in the Derby and both of his half-siblings received ratings over 100 so is bred to be decent. Both siblings also won first time out so at the price, I thought he was worth chancing.

5.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Rainbow Sign @ 12/1

Has been well held in three novice events to date but was always unlikely to threaten against some superior rivals. Shaped okay however and now goes handicapping off a lowly mark. Is well drawn and related to a decent type so I think we can expect more this evening with Luke Morris on board.

5.30 Kempton - 2pts win Dusty Damsel @ 5/1

This one has tumbled down the weights but goes well over a mile on the all-weather and can land this prize. Was a fast finishing 3rd, albeit well held, last time out but that came against rivals rated in the 60s and this is significantly easier. Hopefully will get a good pace to aim at and I think she's can pick them up late on.

6.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Island Storm @ 33/1

There's lots of things that need to go right for this one as plenty of excuses have been made for poor runs in the past but is well handicapped on old form and gets conditions to suit here. Has twice run over 1m4f recently which just is way too far and a mile is where its best form has come. Ran okay in first time blinkers at Newcastle two runs back and under similar conditions today, is worth a small investment at a huge price.

[Augustusbyrne]

38 minutes ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:

4.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Gloucestershire @ 25/1

Big price on debut but is entered in the Derby and both of his half-siblings received ratings over 100 so is bred to be decent. Both siblings also won first time out so at the price, I thought he was worth chancing.

5.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Rainbow Sign @ 12/1

Has been well held in three novice events to date but was always unlikely to threaten against some superior rivals. Shaped okay however and now goes handicapping off a lowly mark. Is well drawn and related to a decent type so I think we can expect more this evening with Luke Morris on board.

5.30 Kempton - 2pts win Dusty Damsel @ 5/1

This one has tumbled down the weights but goes well over a mile on the all-weather and can land this prize. Was a fast finishing 3rd, albeit well held, last time out but that came against rivals rated in the 60s and this is significantly easier. Hopefully will get a good pace to aim at and I think she's can pick them up late on.

6.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Island Storm @ 33/1

There's lots of things that need to go right for this one as plenty of excuses have been made for poor runs in the past but is well handicapped on old form and gets conditions to suit here. Has twice run over 1m4f recently which just is way too far and a mile is where its best form has come. Ran okay in first time blinkers at Newcastle two runs back and under similar conditions today, is worth a small investment at a huge price.

Wow what a call. Thanks Rupert 

[MCLARKE]

Welcome to the forum @Augustusbyrne

There are plenty of knowledgeable people on here and plenty of nuggets like this one in the tips and naps. 

Any questions or comments please post, we are all still learning !

 

[Wildgarden]

2 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:

4.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Gloucestershire @ 25/1

Big price on debut but is entered in the Derby and both of his half-siblings received ratings over 100 so is bred to be decent. Both siblings also won first time out so at the price, I thought he was worth chancing.

5.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Rainbow Sign @ 12/1

Has been well held in three novice events to date but was always unlikely to threaten against some superior rivals. Shaped okay however and now goes handicapping off a lowly mark. Is well drawn and related to a decent type so I think we can expect more this evening with Luke Morris on board.

5.30 Kempton - 2pts win Dusty Damsel @ 5/1

This one has tumbled down the weights but goes well over a mile on the all-weather and can land this prize. Was a fast finishing 3rd, albeit well held, last time out but that came against rivals rated in the 60s and this is significantly easier. Hopefully will get a good pace to aim at and I think she's can pick them up late on.

6.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Island Storm @ 33/1

There's lots of things that need to go right for this one as plenty of excuses have been made for poor runs in the past but is well handicapped on old form and gets conditions to suit here. Has twice run over 1m4f recently which just is way too far and a mile is where its best form has come. Ran okay in first time blinkers at Newcastle two runs back and under similar conditions today, is worth a small investment at a huge price.

Well done missed as in work didn't realise with it posted up later ;-(

[calva decoy]

4 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:

4.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Gloucestershire @ 25/1

Big price on debut but is entered in the Derby and both of his half-siblings received ratings over 100 so is bred to be decent. Both siblings also won first time out so at the price, I thought he was worth chancing.

5.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Rainbow Sign @ 12/1

Has been well held in three novice events to date but was always unlikely to threaten against some superior rivals. Shaped okay however and now goes handicapping off a lowly mark. Is well drawn and related to a decent type so I think we can expect more this evening with Luke Morris on board.

5.30 Kempton - 2pts win Dusty Damsel @ 5/1

This one has tumbled down the weights but goes well over a mile on the all-weather and can land this prize. Was a fast finishing 3rd, albeit well held, last time out but that came against rivals rated in the 60s and this is significantly easier. Hopefully will get a good pace to aim at and I think she's can pick them up late on.

6.00 Kempton - 1pt e/w Island Storm @ 33/1

There's lots of things that need to go right for this one as plenty of excuses have been made for poor runs in the past but is well handicapped on old form and gets conditions to suit here. Has twice run over 1m4f recently which just is way too far and a mile is where its best form has come. Ran okay in first time blinkers at Newcastle two runs back and under similar conditions today, is worth a small investment at a huge price.

Good call Rupert.

Martyn Meade's 2 year olds are always readied well on debut , unfortunately I was on Fleurman for the on fire R.Beckett yard , well done again ?

[Wildgarden]

6 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

810 kempton mont Kiara win only 9.6 and Leo minor e/w Betfair sp both look better to me at 6f and give value in my eyes.

Unplaced both to continue my bad run on here.