Racing Chat - Wednesday 18th 2020

[Wildgarden]

825 kempton my poem  led last time from the off and weakened. perhaps change of strategy today with lesser trip this time looking to at least place today 10.5 smarkets win and 3.5 place ( 3 places)

[Wildgarden]

20 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I'll stick with the method that gave me a winner today.

In the 3.40 handicap hurdle at Hexham 8 of the 17 runners are aged less than 7 but only 1 has been absent for more than 27 days, BUSHYPARK.

Currently available at 16/1 (BOG) with BET365. Again it may be worthwhile backing each way although rain is forecast so potentially there could be non runners that reduce the each way places.

Ran through database for handicap hurdles, other hurdles etc expect sellers hurdles and profitable overall by few percent only from last five years. Interesting to go only for races with one selection. I often have 3-4 on a system back them all only for a big loss; then winner with the 1 selection race like you. May have to take a lesson from.your handbook!

Edited November 18, 2020 by Wildgarden

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

825 kempton my poem  led last time from the off and weakened. perhaps change of strategy today with lesser trip this time looking to at least place today 10.5 smarkets win and 3.5 place ( 3 places)

My poem wins at tidy price 10.5 taken and 3.5 place / 7-1 sp.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

Ran through database for handicap hurdles, other hurdles etc expect sellers hurdles and profitable overall by few percent only from last five years. Interesting to go only for races with one selection. I often have 3-4 on a system back them all only for a big loss; then winner with the 1 selection race like you. May have to take a lesson from.your handbook!

Personally I don't like to have more than 1 selection in a race as I find it less enjoyable watching more than 1 horse. If I have more than 1 selection I tend to go for the shortest in the odds, the market is the best predictor of a race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

23 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:

12.30 Ffos Las - 1pt e/w Istorius @ 16/1

I backed this one on its debut for the yard and over hurdles last time and although the bare result tells you he was beaten out of sight, he was given an easy time in the saddle on his first run for more than 400 days and it was on testing ground which exaggerated the losing margin. Was sent off at 8/1 and did go well enough for quite a long way before running out of steam as he was entitled to do. Should know more now and be fitter for that outing and could be a good deal better now on the promise showed on the flat overseas.

12.45 Hexham - 1pt e/w Turtle Wars @ 8/1

I think there's got to be some question marks over those at the head of the market on ground conditions and current wellbeing so I'm happy to take a chance on James Moffatt's runner who typically runs well for all this trip would be on the sharp side for him. That said, he'll certainly see it out well and recent races at Hexham have been gruelling to say the least. If not getting too far behind, I'd expect him to be staying on well at the business end and hopefully that will suffice today. 

2.30 Hexham - 1pt e/w Nakadam @ 12/1

Was in the process of running a good race in this contest 12 months ago when coming to grief and ran a solid race over shorter when last seen. Is capable fresh, off a fair mark and we know will handle conditions better than most here. It's going to take a lot of getting and this one looks a prime contender to gain compensation for last year at an appealing price.

2.40 Warwick - 2pts win Star of Rory @ 9/2

Still looks fairly handicapped on a couple of runs last season including when a 7 length second to a progressive, well-handicapped horse and then when winning well a couple of starts later. Three miles just stretched his stamina inbetween but shaped with promise in a hot race at Cheltenham on seasonal reappearance and this is much easier. Conditions suit and with that run under his belt, should take the beating.

2.50 Ffos Las - 1pt e/w Broughtons Admiral @ 10/1

Was held in a class 2 race when last seen but that came after a lengthy absence and interestingly it was a similar story last year when beaten when falling on seasonal reappearance before winning easily a couple of months later. Has had a breather since, as he did last year, and the blinkers return under ideal conditions. This is an easier race and looks to hold sound claims when others in this field may not handle conditions as well as him. 

3.15 Warwick - 1pt e/w Theatre Guide @ 12/1

This horse has always had a place in my heart having followed him for years after winning a bumper at Chepstow in 2011. He's an old boy now at 13 but still has ability and shaped better than the bare result at Aintree last time having made some healthy progress towards the business end of the race. Ended up held but can take a couple of runs to find full fitness and could just be primed to go better now. Conditions are fine, he ran well at the end of last season so you don't have to go too far back for his last piece of form and he's worth chancing as outsider of the field.

Glad Nakadam clung on having drifted to 16s as pretty sore seeing Turtle Wars (sp 14/1) and Theatre Guide trade at 1.4 in the run before getting caught late in the day!

[MCLARKE]

On 11/18/2020 at 10:54 AM, The Equaliser said:

Good luck with you system.  It will be interesting if you post up selections up to the end of this month and ideally throughout December to see if this strategy is profitable.

I have reviewed the results of this system for the previous NH season. In total there were 767 races with 1,998 qualifiers, 299 winners and a LSP of 259.90 points. The strike rate was 15% with a ROI of 13%. There were up to 9 selections in any one race.

If I restricted the selections to those where there was only 1 qualifier in a race then this reduces the qualifiers to 241. The strike rate increases to 20% and the ROI increases to 31%.

 

 

 

[The Equaliser]

7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I have reviewed the results of this system for the previous NH season. In total there were 767 races with 1,998 qualifiers, 299 winners and a LSP of 259.90 points. The strike rate was 15% with a ROI of 13%. There were up to 9 selections in any one race.

If I restricted the selections to those where there was only 1 qualifier in a race then this reduces the qualifiers to 241. The strike rate increases to 20% and the ROI increases to 31%.

 

 

 

Very many thanks for this information.  You always back up your strategies with rock solid statistics.  I hope that your advice will help many members on the forum make some money ?