The Brigadier Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 The big race of the weekend may well be Lostintranslation taking on Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase at Haydock but from a punting view the race which takes the eye is the Betfair Exchange Stayer’s Handicap Hurdle. A field of 24 declared at the five day stage and with more rain forecast throughout the week the current ground conditions of soft can only go one way – a typical Haydock quagmire in store I feel. Some big names have won this prestigious contest throughout the years including Sam Spinner and Paisley Park and this year’s weights are headed by top chaser Kalashnikov who will surely struggle at 3m if taking his chance. The most intriguing runner in the field has to be Ronan McNally’s The Jam Man who absolutely bolted up in the Troytown Handicap Chase last time and reverts to hurdles here but off of a 14lb higher mark – he wont mind the conditions that’s for sure and with his trainer mooting earlier in the week a possible tilt at the Stayers Hurdle he would be one to have on your shortlist. David Pipe has an excellent record in this race having won it 3 times in the last 10 with Grand Crus, Dynaste and Gevrey Chambertin and relies upon the remarkable Main Fact who has won 8 races on the bounce (5 hurdles and 3 on the level). The ground cannot be soft enough for him and although he’s yet to race beyond 2m 4f his style of running suggests he’ll even appreciate stepping up in trip as he only ever seems to get going at the finish of his races. He was some buy at a mere £6,000 out of Dianne Sayer’s stable, winning 8 of his 9 races since amassing £62,00 in prize money alone. He’s a worthy favourite and if he was to triumph here the 50/1 about him winning the Stayers Hurdle with bet 365 would look some value. Pipe also has Duc De Beauchene in the race and owned by legendary JP McManus is also very interesting. He landed a punt at the Open meeting at Cheltenham last season and although he disappointed subsequently he remains a dangerous horse off of bottom weight (he does have an alternate entry on Sunday at Uttoxeter) Dan Skelton’s West To The Bridge comes here in good form having won at Carlisle last time but has to race off of a career high mark of 140 and that might be his undoing. Fergal O’Brien is having a tremendous season so far and his novice Imperial Alcazar comes here as one of the well backed favourites following two novice hurdle victories last season though his best effort came when a neck runner up to chasing sensation Protektorat at Cheltenham on New Years Day . He steps up in trip and his mark looks workable for sure. Portrush Ted is obviously a hard horse to train as he has only raced 8 times over the last 4 seasons but his record following a break of 87 days or more is excellent (12111) He stays well and handles the mud so could be a player here. Irish raider Relegate has raced only 3 times for Colm Murphy having been transferred from Willie Mullins’ yard and was outclassed last time. He’s 2lb lower now than when going off favourite for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last March and finishing 5th. Olly Murphy runs two with Collooney having to prove his stamina and I K Brunel reverting back to the smaller obstacles after two runs in novice chases this Autumn. The Murphy yard seem out of sorts at the moment with a mere 2 winners from the last 45 runners so this pair are easily overlooked. Cill Anna and Highland Hunter represent Paul Nicholls with preference for the former who ran well up to the last at Wincanton on his reappearance and will appreciate the softer ground. Summary:- Main Fact is still improving and could be yet another winner of this contest for his trainer David Pipe despite running at this trip for the first time. The best outsider may be Warren Greatrex’s Portrush Ted who has a terrific record fresh and appeals as one who could go well Main Fact 1 point each way 7/1 Paddy Power Portrush Ted ½ point each way 16/1 888 Sport MCLARKE, vikki37 and yossa6133 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Amy Murphy has said Kalashnikov will run as long as the ground isn’t too testing. If he could get anywhere near his hurdle form he will be a player at 14/1. Has distance to prove like a few others do. Also Third wind 10/1 vikki37 and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 I've rated the current top 17 runners (max,) Third wind 335 Dolphin square 334 Imperial alcazar 327 Main fact 326 Top 2 here are a few points ahead and big prices ...currently 10 and 20 ....so easy value ew bets for me ....but I'll wait til friday to back Villa Chris and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 (edited) Third Wind ran well in the Pertemps at the festival. The three that finished in front of him all have been in strong form since either over fences or hurdles. Ran well enough in a decent class two the other week first run back after break and he seems to need that first run. I’ll be playing both Kalashnikov and Third Wind. Looks like it will be Soft/Heavy. Form on that ground reads 11114, with the 4 coming at Cheltenham festival. Edited November 17, 2020 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Villa Chris said: Third Wind ran well in the Pertemps at the festival. The three that finished in front of him all have been in strong form since either over fences or hurdles. Ran well enough in a decent class two the other week first run back after break and he seems to need that first run. I’ll be playing both Kalashnikov and Third Wind. Looks like it will be Soft/Heavy. Form on that ground reads 11114, with the 4 coming at Cheltenham festival. That's very strong form third wind ....should be spot on now so will disappointing if he doesnt place at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 30 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: That's very strong form third wind ....should be spot on now so will disappointing if he doesnt place at least Let’s hope so mate richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punterbro Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 17 hours ago, richard-westwood said: I've rated the current top 17 runners (max,) Third wind 335 Dolphin square 334 Imperial alcazar 327 Main fact 326 Top 2 here are a few points ahead and big prices ...currently 10 and 20 ....so easy value ew bets for me ....but I'll wait til friday to back Does your rating take the ground conditions into account when rating the horses Richard? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 hours ago, Punterbro said: Does your rating take the ground conditions into account when rating the horses Richard? Yes ....third wind loves the soft so he will have a higher rating Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 It looks like the race distance has increased by a furlong or so in the last 2 years so I have extended my sample base to include 23/24f races. 7 out of 33 winners have had forecast odds of 8/1 or less compared to 4 from 117 with higher odds. This reduces the field from 19 to 4. 7 out of 52 came 1st or 2nd last time. This reduces the field to 2. My favourite NH statistic, age less than 7. There have been 68 horses 7 or older and only 1 has won. This leaves just one selection, IMPERIAL ALCAZAR. Currently available at 11/2 with 5 places available. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/17/2020 at 5:25 PM, richard-westwood said: I've rated the current top 17 runners (max,) Third wind 335 Dolphin square 334 Imperial alcazar 327 Main fact 326 Top 2 here are a few points ahead and big prices ...currently 10 and 20 ....so easy value ew bets for me ....but I'll wait til friday to back 10pts ew third wind 15/2 6places sky 10pts ew dolphin square 16/1 6places sky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 minute ago, richard-westwood said: 10pts ew third wind 15/2 6places sky 10pts ew dolphin square 16/1 6places sky You think 15/2 will stay? Was 10/1 the other day. Might see if he drifts out again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Villa Chris said: You think 15/2 will stay? Was 10/1 the other day. Might see if he drifts out again. You can get 8/1 for less places but I think hes found his level around 7 or 8/1 ...shoukd be joint fav I reckon given his level of form .....I had a price cut off of 7 with 4 places ...so I had to back now .... so 6 places is fab odds imo and I'm happy with that Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Now backed into 5/1 favourite richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 On 11/17/2020 at 5:25 PM, richard-westwood said: I've rated the current top 17 runners (max,) Third wind 335 Dolphin square 334 Imperial alcazar 327 Main fact 326 Top 2 here are a few points ahead and big prices ...currently 10 and 20 ....so easy value ew bets for me ....but I'll wait til friday to back Third wind 2nd ....main fact won ....ew money Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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