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Racing chat -weds 7th Oct


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Safer to stay on all weather currently until it settles down ...hopefully by Good racing later in week 

8.00 kemp 

Company minx 233 

Tipperary jack  231 

Human nature  227 

Manton Grange 227 

Tricky little race ....human nature and manton Grange are capable of big runs at best but havent been at best lately could run well at big prices if on song but top two have stronger recent form and if company can take to the 7f he could improve for it 

Company minx 10pt win 9/2 skyb

Tipperary jack 10pt win 7/1 bet365 

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I like Rikoboy in the 1:15 Sedgefield. Ran like he just needed the run at Plumpton and pulled a bit early on, but I think that was a decent effort and should be spot on here. 11/4 at the moment.

Drifted out to 9/2 with the strong support for the Sue Smith horse, still prefer this one and now a good price but obviously the fav will be a danger.

Edited by yossa6133
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5.05 Ludlow

I think Brave Jaq is well handicapped in this competitive looking race. He hasn't been seen since finishing a well beaten 2nd to Risk A Fine in a hunter chase last March, but that horse is now rated in the 140's after a superb hunter chase season. Lockdown probably stopped us seeing both horses so far this year, but he has a mark of 100 here going back over hurdles. He did show a bit of ability to start with in hurdles for Paul Nicholls so that gives me confidence he can handle them and I think he is a better horse now he has learnt to settle better. When he first went hunter chasing he was a bit of a tearaway and almost uncontrollable, but last year he was able to finally win a hunter chase and showed over good form. My main concern is he will need this as he hasn't always been in peak shape 1st up and obviously he has had a long break, so I can't be as confident as I would like to be. However he's got a good jockey booked and 14/1 is value.

Brave Jaq e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365 (4 places available with William Hill and Betway to the same odds)

5.35 Ludlow

I really fancied You Too Bonny Lass for the Aintree point-to-point bumper last year and she was a big disappointment. I know connections were confident as well and they were disappointed that she ran so poorly. She ran in a point in December when she fell when still bang in contention.at Cottenham. She was so impressive when she won in a point bumper on debut that I have to give her another chance here although it will be to small stakes.

You Too Bonny Lass e/w @ 10/1 with Betfair and Betway

4.00 Sedgefield

I put Dutch Canyon up in both starts he has run in since lockdown. He was unlucky to bump into a horse on a going day at Perth and then was a big disappointment at Hexham last time. That wasn't his true running and he is certainly better than that. This doesn't look a strong race at all and he should get a fairy easy time of things out in front so at 9/1 I will back him e/w.

Dutch Canyon e/w @ 9/1 with everyone

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Auteuill 10.55

 

Shakesp well- seems to have been overlooked in the market for the opening claimer over hurdles. 14/1e/w currently. 

Trainer in tremendous form. On the dams sire side there is a strong stamina influence. The market leader disappointed over fences last time and it feels a little short in the market for the weight to be carried on what is bound to be considerably stamina testing  on this tough course. With doubts over the others on trainer/jockey form, going etc the selection seems overpriced in comparison in what is a relatively poor race for the track. 

 

 

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