Racing Chat - Saturday 22nd August

[richard-westwood]

Cant find much value at the moment on thurs fri but the ebor looks more interesting 

Monica sheruef   232 +2 

Shailene  231 +1 

Pablo Escobar  227 +1 

Fujuiara prince  226 +1 

Pablo and fujuiara are 1st andx2nd favs around 6 or 7 .....but top 2 are available at 12/1 and 20/1 which makes them very good value in such  an open race so I'm happy to play at those prices 

Monica sherief 10pts ew 12/1 bet365 

Shailene 10pts ew 20/1 betvic 

[Darran]

Really looking forward to the action in Australia this weekend as we see the first Group 1 of the new season, the Winx Stakes at Randwick and we also see the Grand National at Ballarat on Sunday as the jumps season ends with an all jumps card there. That preview will come tomorrow, but first of all I will look at 9 races from Moonee Valley and Randwick

Moonee Valley R1 (3.50am)

I could be throwing good money after bad money, but I do want to have a small bet on Rivet Delight again. On the face of it he was disappointing at Flemington last time when behind Coming Around, who looks set to go off odds on here, but he was at the back of the field that day and the race suited front runners. Connections have said that this former Racing Post Trophy winner is set to sit closer to the pace here and if he can show the form he showed at Caulfield 1st up then I think he is value here.

Rivet Delight e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred

Moonee Valley R4 (5.45am)

Tigre Royale has won 4 on the bounce now the last two coming in this grade at Randwick and Sandown. As that suggests he is clearly progressive and he won very easily last time. It was a Heavy 9 at Randwick the time before and given there is plenty of rain in the Melbourne area both today and tomorrow I suspect the ground might reach the Heavy range so we know that wont bother him. The other one I like is Kentucky Tornado who was 6th at Flemington last time in a decent race. She clocked a fast 200m that day over 2000m and now up to 2500m looks ideal.

Tigre Royale @ 6/1 with Bet365

Kentucky Tornado @ 16/5 with Bet365

Moonee Valley R8 (8.15am)

Given the time of the race you might want to wait to have a bet closer to the off as it is based around the ground being in the Heavy range. Jungle Edge loves a wet track as he showed when winning a G3 at Caulfield two starts back when I tipped up the 2nd Viridine. That form is strong given Viridine has won twice since. Last time he was back in a Good 4 track at the same venue and only beat one home. The wetter it is the more I would like his chances. I put up Brooklyn Hustle last time when she dropped into BM78 company 1st up and she duly bolted up. She's a good horse and looks up to winning at this level, but I am not sure she will want it that testing and Jungle Edge has the edge for me.

Jungle Edge @ 3/1 with Bet365

Moonee Valley R9 (8.45am)

I really can't wait for this handicap over 2040m as it looks a fascinating contest. Young Rascal wont need any introduction and he has his first start since leaving William Haggas, but his new trainer has said that Haggas has been helping him a fair bit to train the horse. His win at Rosehill two starts back is a very good piece of form, but I think tomorrow's run will be all about building towards bigger targets later in the spring as the trip is on the short side for him. We have former German horse Schabau running who has been talked off as a Melbourne cup horse. He has actually won over this trip twice in Australia and he has claims. I was on former UK horse Skyman last time and he is now 2/2 in Australia, but he is way out of the weights and as much as he is progressive he would have had to have improved massively on his UK form. For example he only get's half a kilo from Orderofthegarter who was 2nd at Royal Ascot to Benbatl in 2017. I put him up last time on his first run for nearly 2 years and he ran a huge race over 1600m to finish 2nd. Going up to this trip is obviously a plus and although stall 12 is a concern he looks to have a really good chance. I also want to have Polly Grey onside as the former New Zealand runner has been in really good from since coming to Chris Waller. She got no luck at Flemington two starts back and then last time over course and distance she had to do a bit too much to early and was just denied. She has drawn 1 here so she certainly wont be caught wide again and a Heavy track will be no issue.

Orderofthegarter @ 3/1 with Bet365

Polly Grey @ 9/2 with Bet365

Randwick R3 (4.10am)

I put up ex UK horse New King when he won a couple of weeks ago as there had been clear promise in his first run in Australia and he was given a cracking ride by James McDonald to score. He looked progressive in the UK and the one concern I had last time was the 1500m so going up in trip to 1600m is obviously a plus. For a change it has been fairly dry in Sydney so it won't be as testing as last time, but it will be soft still so that will be no concern and I think this son of Frankel can score again as he continues to improve.

New King @ 5/2 with Bet365

Randwick R6 (6.05am)

One of the horses I was most impressed with since I have started previewing the Australian action every Saturday is Adelong who won 3 on the bounce in May and June. Her record now reads 8 starts for 6 wins and 2 2nds and we now get to see her in Group company. She looks a Group horse and I think she can take the step up in grade with ease.

Adelong @ 21/20 with Bet365

Randwick R7 (6.45am)

As I mention above the Winx Stakes is the first G1 of the season and I am going to take a couple against the field. The Bostonian has a superb record 1st up having won 6 times in 7 attempts. Indeed 9 of his 10 wins have either come 1st up or 2nd up. He loves a wet track so the ground will be ideal for him and 1400m 1st up looks ideal and drawn in 1 I expect him to sit handy just off the speed. I was tempted by Master Of Wine and he did win 1st up over 1400 last prep, but that was a BM100 and I am not sure he can repeat that in G1 company. Instead I think it is worth giving Melody Belle a chance to atone for a poor run 1st up. That came in a G2 at Rosehill and she was too far back in the testing ground that day. She was a couple of places behind Master Of Wine in the Queen Elizabeth in April, but I think Melody Belle is more suited to 1400m than he is. Her record over this trip is 5 wins in 7 attempts so I am prepared to give her another chance on better going.

The Bostonian @ 5/1 with Bet365

Melody Belle @ 10/1 with Bet365

Randwick R8 (7.25am)

Granted Minted was nearly 4L behind an impressive winner last time, but she finished the race off well as the closing splits show and he looks like the step up to 1400m will suit him on just his 8th start based on that run. He gets in her off 52kgs and he has a solid chance in an open contest. Kinane was had a good spell last time and connections turned down a big offer for him, but I just wonder if he might need further especially as it took him getting up to 1600m before he won. He's a very promising horse though.

Minted @ 5/1 with Bet365

Randwick R9 (8.05am)

I was keen on Cristal Breeze a couple of weeks ago, but he was a non-runner and I think this ex UK horse can go very well here. He won on his 1st Australian start at Canterbury in June which was his first run since he was 2nd at Newmarket this time last year. He then ran at Randwick over 1300m and was 2nd behind Handspun which I think was good form. I don't mind the drop back to 1200m although granted the draw could have been better than 13, but I still think he can go close. I also want Icebath onside as she was running well in stakes races when last seen in April. She was 2nd in a Listed Race here and then 3rd in a Group 3 at Rosehill. In both races she didn't have a great deal of luck and last time she was in 9th with 400m still to go and didn't get clear air until 100m out. She has trialled well going into to this and has already been a 1st up winner in her short career.

Cristal Breeze @ 8/1 with Betfair

Icebath @ 4/1 with Bet365

[BillyHills]

York 340

Ebor Handicap

1pt EW Pablo Escobarr 11/1 Hills
1pt EW Trueshan 10/1 bet365

3,5,8 Com F/C

_____________________________________________

 

725 Chelmsford
Class 2 Handicap

1pt Boccaccio 7/1 Hills
1pt Afraid of Nothing 5/1 Hills

4,7,13 Comb F/C

 

 

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.50 York - 2pts win Lord Glitters @ 7/2 Bet365

This one has the form in the book, has won this race before and won't have any issues if the ground softens today so looks a pretty solid option. There's a couple of front runners here which should help set it up today and if there's a decent pace, Lord Glitters looks sure to be thundering home late in the day. It's often too late but that's included when running in group ones and group twos but won't find these as tricky to peg back and looks a solid bet.

2.25 York - 2pts win Favorite Moon @ 3/1 Bet365

Not an inspiring selection but the most likely winner in my eyes having seen off Subjectivist at Haydock last time. The pair were 8 lengths clear of the remainder and whilst Subjectivist is now rated 8lbs higher than he ran off that day, Favourite Moon has only gone up 7lbs and looks like there's plenty more to come. Was in need of the run at Doncaster first time out and looks a stayer so the move up to 1m6f benefited him last time. Any ease in the ground is no issue, the track will suit and looks to hold a huge chance of following up here.

3.00 York - 2pts win San Donato @ 9/2 Bet365

One Master did well to win at Goodwood on ground too quick for her but it's not going to be an absolute bog here and I think this will prove tougher. San Donato returned from a substantial absence to run a blinder behind Mohaather at Ascot two starts back and shaped better than the bare result in the Sussex Stakes last time, travelling well before backing out of things. He's finished a few of his mile races off without too much vigour so this 7f trip could be absolutely bang on for him. On formlines through the likes of Duke of Hazzard I think he holds a few of these and there's no issue with the ground. 

3.40 York - 1pt e/w Monica Sheriff @ 14/1 Bet365

Has done most of her winning on heavy ground and whilst it's unlikely to be anything like that day, any rain that comes will certainly make the ground on the soft side and the additional stamina this one has can come into play in what could be quite a test with a big field over this trip. Was very progressive last year after beating the useful 90 horse Cape Cavalli over 1m4f in a novice by 3 lengths. She got the job done at Newcastle in a small field despite that not playing to her strengths before absolutely bolting up by 20 lengths on heavy at Goodwood. Whilst presumably somewhat flattered, the runner up was only beaten 5 or so lengths in a listed event on soft ground over the same trip next time so it's not as if all of her rivals that day simply couldn't go on soft ground. Won in France when last seen with formlines suggesting she's not off a bad mark back in a handicap here. Has an absence to overcome but William Haggas can get them right first time and she's a most interesting runner.

4.10 York - 2pts win Lauded @ 11/2 Bet365

Tom Dascombe's runner was impressive on debut, running out a ready winner over 6f but this one's pedigree is all speed and in two starts up in grade in group company may have just highlighted a chink in his armour late on over that trip against top rivals. Raced keenly when running a solid race in the Coventry before fading late on and ran respectably at Goodwood too. Drops back to 5f here at a track that suits speedy types and that could just unlock a bit more despite him already having solid form in the book.

4.40 York - 1pt e/w Aasheq @ 22/1 Bet365

Doesn't have the progressive profile of some of these but is off a winning mark, has run well here before and shaped okay on his first run for a while at Chester last time which should set him up nicely for this. Was held up from a wide draw around there and kept on but couldn't get involved but that should have blown away some of the cobwebs. Was in good form last year with his 3rd to Mountain Angel at Epsom subsequently reading well and ran a good race when a close 3rd at Chester again behind good rivals. Could never quite get involved at York in the John Smiths Cup afterwards but it was very difficult to come from off the pace on that occasion and he actually did better than most of those held up. Has a good draw here and is a handy price so worth an e/w go.

[calva decoy]

Bread & Butter Day

105 Uttoxeter - Fraterculus 13/2 ew bet365. 3rd , the greenest 9 horses you'll ever see in a race !

Was 4th on debut & well beaten , dons 1st time cheekpieces today & in form P.Brennan fresh from a Friday treble doing the stearing could make the frame.

425 Uttoxeter - Kings Temptation 4/1 bet365. non runner

Has been in form this summer winning over CD & over 24f 27 days ago , has a 5Lb rise & is up in class to contend with but capable of landing the 3 timer.

 

Edited August 22, 2020 by calva decoy
Spelling error

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today (could find no qualifiers at the minor meetings)

3.00 Yk One Master 15/8
4.10 Yk Ben Macdui 7/2 £2 win
5.10 Yk Meras 5/2 £2 win
one £1 trixie = £4 v £84.02

Other bets:

2.40 San Enigmatic £1 win at 5/1
2.40 San Golden Force 50p ew at 8/1
2.40 San Gin Palace 50p ew at 17/2

3.15 San Zegalo £1 ew at 13/2

5.00 San Clem A £1 ew at 12/1

3.20 Uttx Soloman grey £2 win at 9/4
3.20 Uttx Western Miller £1 win at 13/2

4.25 Uttx Kings Temptation £1 win at 4/1

3.40 Yk Trueshan £1 ew at 6/1

4.40 Yk Sinjaan £2 win at 7/2

Multiples = £4

Singles = £17

Total = £21

======================================================================================

I had a feeling that today would not yield good results and I was right.  It's a strange feeling when one feels that although the selections should have an excellent chance on paper but somehow one is unconvinced.  Shouldn't have bothered I guess today.

None of the good things won at York and luckily I reduced the Trixie to £4.  The balance now stands at £742.56 (£800 Bank). 

On the singles front I had one winner, two placed horses and two non runners.  The return was £13.70 v a £17 outlay hence a £3.30 loss on the day, The balance C/fwd is now £325.82 (£400 Bank)

Some Good races at Sandown tomorrow. let's hope I can find some decent selections unlike today

 

 

Edited August 22, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[richard-westwood]

On 8/20/2020 at 5:30 PM, richard-westwood said:

Cant find much value at the moment on thurs fri but the ebor looks more interesting 

Monica sheruef   232 +2 

Shailene  231 +1 

Pablo Escobar  227 +1 

Fujuiara prince  226 +1 

Pablo and fujuiara are 1st andx2nd favs around 6 or 7 .....but top 2 are available at 12/1 and 20/1 which makes them very good value in such  an open race so I'm happy to play at those prices 

Monica sherief 10pts ew 12/1 bet365 

Shailene 10pts ew 20/1 betvic 

Fujiaraprince won .....monicasherriff came from nowhere to finish 4th ...too much to do ..ew money 

[calva decoy]

Coltrane ran in & won the 225 at York & another Coltrane has just ran in 914 at Gulfsteam couldn't repeat an across the pond double .

Without Parole ex Gosden runs in the 1046 at Saratoga & D.Holland has had a few rides in Canada at Woodbine tonight , nearer last than first in most !