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Racing Chat - Tuesday July 21st


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Quite like Sword of Fate in the 5:15 at Perth.

He's had a rotten couple of seasons, some falls and PU's and clouted some fences, but has dropped 36lbs from his highest handicap rating. I think he struggles to stay, so an easy 2m on a sound surface is ideal. Ran ok last time at Musselburgh before getting tired in the ground, only 7 and I don't think there's anything physically wrong with him. Not sure how fit his small yard will be able to get him so might be better for the run, but risking him at 16/1 (bet 365).

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The 7.30 at Perth is a really weak affair and as long as Dutch Canyon is fit and can dominate I think he can win. Obviously the first question I can't answer with any certainty, but he did win a maiden point first time out last season so we know he can win first up. After that he won a handicap off 75 at Hexham beating Prince Dundee who runs again here. He followed up at Cartmel when just holding on. His next start he was very disappointing, but he wasn't able to dominate and he then just sulked. That obviously brings me to the 2nd point and I do think he can dominate this race despite the big field. There doesn't appear to be a lot of other possible front runners so hopefully he does get an easy lead. He ran on the final weekend of pointing which was his only start this year and he was 2nd in soft ground which wouldn't have been ideal and it was certainly a performance which suggested that a mark of 83 was one he could win off. I think the 4/1-9/2 on offer is a fair price and hopefully he can make all.

Dutch Canyon @ 9/2 with Betfair or take the 4/1 BOG with Bet365 especially as it's one of their 4/1 free bet races.

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Good morning

Next selection

345 chepstow daheer 2pts 13/8 bog sky bet

Oh dear - one of those losing runs. This horse was well fancied by connections running well below his expected grade. Drifted in the market and I suspect the gamble was abandoned when the money came for the winner. One for the note book.

Bank 100 Now 108.9 W12 L13

Edited by Old codger
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Two Trixies, a double and singles today:

6.40 Sand It's a Good Laugh 7/1
7.15 San Fev Rover 13/8
7.45 San Diocletian 16/5
One 50p win Trixie = £2 v £76.91

6.40 San Amir Kabir 7/1
7.15 San Fev Rover 13/8
7.45 San Diocletian 16/5
One 50p win Trixie  = £2 v £76.91

7.15 San Fev Rover 13/8
7.45 San Diocletian 15/4
One £2 win double = £22.05

Total multiples = £6.00

Singles:

6.40 San It's Good to Laugh £1 win at 11/2
6.40 San Amir Kabir £1 win at 7/1
7.15 San Fev Rover £2 win at 13/8
7.45 san Diocletian £2 Win at 7/2

50p win bets today

8.15 San Fibonacci at 10/1
4.25 San Holwah at 12/1
8.45 San Mastawah at 11/1
1.05 Chep Aquadabra at 12/1
2.45 Chep Knights Gate 11/1
2.45 Chep Corofin 18/1
4.50 Chep Barrier Reef 12/1
5.25 Chep Master Grey 10/1

Total 50p win bet stakes = £4.00
Other win bet stakes = £6.00

Total stakes today = £16.00

Should be an entertaining day if nothing else

Two winners today but not in my multiples.  Diocletian let me down badly by being very slowly away and finishing nowhere.

Anyway, Singles win = Fev Rover drifted to 9/4 = £6.50 v £6.00 = 50p Profit
One winner in 50p stake bets at 10/1. Therefore -£4 stake + £5.50 return = + £1.50 = + £0.75 C/Fwd
Singles Balance c/fwd = £348.19 (£400 Bank)

Multiples - £6 therefore C/Fwd Balance = £635.83 (£800 Bank)

Just one class 3 race tomorrow at Bath 2.40.  Not much in the way Class 4 races either.  Looks like I won't be making up multiples.  Hopefully my 10/1 + shots will be more productive.

 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
Results Update
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