BillyHills Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Its Monday Nap: 725 Kil: Pugin 6/5 bet365 Nb: 400 Rs: Im A Game Changer 8/11 bet365 Others: 300 Rs: Tiger Twenty Two 5/2 bet365 1205 A: Pavers Pride 3/1 bet2365 EW Bets 135 Wi: Open Wide 7/1 bet365 555 Kl: Madaket Mystery 7/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 (edited) One Trixie today with short priced horses. Not betting at Ayr; all class 6 races 1.0 Win Zamaani 11/10 3.10 Win First Water Ev 3.40 Win Casting Vote 7/5 One £1.50 Trixie = £6 poss return of £36.18 Longer priced singles today: 12.25 Win Danzart 50p win at 11/1 1.00 Win Bodak Yellow 50p win at 11/1 1.35 Win Magic Ride 50p win at 12/1 1.35 Win A sure Welcome 50p 2in at 14/1 2.10 Win Loves Dreams 50p win 10/1 2.10 Win Marshall Dan 50p win at 17/2 (should drift) 2.10 Win Pinnata 25p win at 25/1 4.10 Win Sherpa Trail £1 win at 11/2 5.40 Km Ahorsecalledwanda 50p win at 12/1 5.40 KM Feel Good Factor 50p win at 22/1 6.10 Km, The Blue Bower £1 win at 11/2 (lots of experts support but friendless in the market) 6.45 Km Lily Like 50p win at 11/1 6.45 Km Dark Phoenix 50p win at 16/1 Multiples = £6.00 Singles = £7.25 Total stakes = £13.25 At long last I get a trixie in. Not a lot of money but it all adds up. Hmm, maybe I can compete with the PL Accumuator, which always seems to be a treble anyway. The Trixie paid £33.57 less outlay £6.00 = a profit of £27.57 Multiples balance C/Fwd = £673.63 (Bank £800) No singles winners hence a loss of £7.25 Singles balance C/Fwd = £371.55 (Bank £400) Edited July 13, 2020 by The Equaliser Results update kroni 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Well done. Just goes to show you can't go far wrong with short priced favourites. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 10 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Well done. Just goes to show you can't go far wrong with short priced favourites. I've been struggling a bit recently with short priced faves in the Naps and £20 thread I reckon there is a bit of a mental issue to overcome ....... when looking at short priced ones I find that I'm picking because they're short priced rather than because I've studied the race and concluded that I've found the winner .. in other words the usual selection procedures go out the window and I'm just picking because they're the short priced favourite and nothing else I wonder if anyone recognises this as a theme ? It seems logical that you can make a profit sticking to short priced runners but only if you put the work in and figure out which ones are going to win and which ones are not ! got to get a decent strike rate and try and avoid false favourites Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 I think there is value in odds on favourites because a lot of punters don't back them because they are under the mis apprehension that they are poor value and also aren't very "sexy". It is probably as good a starting point as any. It is important to get a good early price as they often seem to shorten. I don't do a lot of analysis, my basic rules are UK racing only, runners limit of 12, ignore unraced or those that didn't complete last time. Since the start of the year there have been 211 selections with 138 winners (65% SR) and a LSP of 25.91 points (19% ROI). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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