Winners & bookmakers

[Ilovemath]

Hello everyone,

Hope you're doing well in this very particular period ! Here is my story below, I would be very thankful if you had some insights :)

My situation

I have no specific knowledge of betting or sports (I am just a casual amateur like most people) but I have a background in computer science, mathematics & data management. I have worked on a proprietary model to predict sports’ outcomes. I have then tested the model (i.e. calculated the outcome of games & competitions but I have not placed bets for months until I was sure the model was working). The testing results were really good and I starting placing actual bets in February & March until sports competitions got stopped due to the Covid crisis. The actual results were also inline with what I saw during the testing period.

Long story short, this model is supposed to bring a 95% to 99% prediction accuracy on specific sports events. Depending on the risk set-up, I can expect to run 100 to 500 bets / year.

So let’s assume I kind of nailed it and I can expect to live from betting now (please the point is not to brag or create any debate, I am just trying to make my situation clear here. If you don’t believe in the story described before, it’s fine, but let’s not pollute this thread).

The problem to solve

I insist on the fact that my betting technic complies with bookmakers’ rules. Nothing illegal, not taking advantage of odds errors, no arbitrage, etc. Just regular bets that are -based on my assumptions- well forecasted.

I was planning to invest a bankroll of a few tens thousands in this project (let’s say $10k to start, but I could add up to $50k from my savings if things work as expected). So this initial bankroll added to the potential benefits means that the total amounts at stake could become quite big.

Here is the problem: I am deeply afraid of what I read regarding some bookmakers who limit professional betters & winners, not to mention some cases where accounts are suddenly closed and fund completely retained (incl. the initial deposit). The very fact that bookies keep the right to limit bet amounts & close accounts with no justifications (and could also use this superior position to retain betters money, including initial deposit) seriously scares me.

I am aware of the fact that there are a few things to do in order to stay under the radar such as limiting bet amounts, diversifying bets across different platforms, place some “losing bets” on purpose to cover the tracks, place bets at certain time of the day to look like a casual gambler, etc.

Nevertheless, I still feel very concerned about being fooled by some sneaky bookies.

Here are my questions

·       Based on the limitations listed before and assuming that professional betters have strong predictions accuracy, how big can professional betters make? Are we rather talking about 5 figures / year, 6 figures / year, 7 figures / year?!

·       If something goes wrong with a bookmaker, how successful can I be threatening them to sell my method? Big assumption: people believe what I do is reliable and I sell them my forecast. In the end, a bookie would rather allow me to keep placing my bet rather than having hundreds of people betting with the same level of prediction accuracy, don’t you think?

·       What are the key thresholds to use to stay under the radar:

o   Bet amounts not higher than regular betters? (i.e. $500 max? If yes, that’s pretty low)

o   Max % of winning bet ?

o   Max threshold of gain or profitability on the account?

o   Something else?

·       Anything else to know about pro-betters? I heard they rely a lot on platforms such as Pinnacle, Betfair, Sbobet, Matchbook, Betdaq, 21bet… Maybe there are some other places where they do their stuff rather than dealing with annoying bookies such as WH, Bwin, etc.?

 

Thanks a lot for your help on this

 

 

[Sir Puntalot]

 to Punters Lounge @Ilovemath   

I've moved this to where it will get most attention. However, I must advise you that any attempt to sell this software on here via whatever means or any spam, and it will be an instant ban if not emailing [email protected] for approval. We are a free community and always will be, thanks for your understanding.  

[Ilovemath]

Thanks ! No worries I do not plan to sell anything here, just trying to understand how to deal with those bookies

[giraldi]

Hi

 

I am 100% sure you will find the answer to your questions as here are many very experienced guys around. Until one of them answers you, please allow me to share my conclusions after, a few years ago, I asked myself a similar question.

Of course, as I said,  this is just an opinion I developed based on my research.

Here is just a very short summary. I will not give names or examples.

 

Assuming that you are an honest player, and don-t try to take any undeserved advantage and you are not addicted and with problems related to gambling

I found out that bookies can be divided into the following categories:

 

B1 - Top bookies for professional players

B2 - Top bookies for regular players

B3 - Everything else

 

B1. (just a few)

B1 are bookies where you will not have any kind of problems related to your stake, as soon as there is enough money placed on the opposite market (in a simplisting way). B1 bookies will encourage you to bet as much as you want and even they advertise "winners are welcome!"

If you become a millionaire, not only will not block your account but advertise harder "See? It is possible. What are you waiting for?"

Again, the only limitation is because there is not enough money on the other side so they will not have a win/win situation. (in a simplisting way). Thats-s why you might see those "maximum stake = xxxxxx" (but usually this is high enough)

 

B2. (many of them)

B2 are bookies where you will not have any kind of problems related to your stake as soon as they do not identify you as a proffesional player or, by luck, you win too much or lost too much.

If you read carefully their terms and conditions (probably less than 1% do that) they state that offer a platform for entertainment (not exactly with the same words ) so will not allow becoming rich (goto B1) but on the other side will not allow betting your life (goto Home)

If everything goes well, finally everybody is happy here: If you win then you are happy that win, if you lose you are happy that not lost so much but just the fair price for your entertainment, the bookie is happy becasue takes the "juice"

 

B.3 (just a few)

if you really like the adventure. Here can place/win more than win at B2 but can find your account blocked after a big win until they will investigate if are not related to the player that scored 3 own-goals.

 

As I understand, you need a B1 and you have already named a few. 100% sure will not have problems there if you play correctly.

 

Regarding your strategy, the numbers you displayed are impressive indeed but 90-95% accuracy would be even more impressive if tell us more, like what is the market, what are the odds...etc.

Given your background, I am sure you agree with me that 95% accuracy in the "over 9.5 goals in the first half" market might be not enough.

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by giraldi

[only1woz]

Have you considered betfair?

 

You can now select commission as low as 2% on the exchange and very often the odds are much better than traditional bookies so will negate any commission anyway. No limits or closing of winning accounts. As long as you're bets aren't too obscure ie throw ins or minute of goal scored, or really obscure leagues then you should have no problem getting matched.

 

Also, although I personally don't have any experience of this, I'm led to believe that Asian bookies will accept all bets, all stakes and never close accounts but maybe someone else can confirm that about Asian bookies?

[Ilovemath]

Thanks for the first insights guys. I'll carefully take a look to those alternatives.

I actually started digging a bit today and already found a few things that may explain why those platforms are comfortable with winners. Apart from what you mentioned regarding platforms like Pinnacle and how they manage risk, it seems that some additional risks are hidden in their rules.

Just taking an example here: Forfeits usually lead to bet cancellation with most bookies. But in the case of Pinnacle, forfeits can be accounted as a defeat for player X and a win for player Y. Might sound like a detail, but forfeits -like some other special events- tend to happen more than we think depending on the sport, the type of game / tournament and other parameters. Eventually, this can have a significant impact on gain expectancy.

To be continued…

 

[Smiles Tennis]

On 4/13/2020 at 8:44 AM, Ilovemath said:

Long story short, this model is supposed to bring a 95% to 99% prediction accuracy on specific sports events.

I will happily discuss a few things from your post, but with not much going on, let's do them bit by bit. 

This part quoted. Is that accuracy of the winning player/team? because you can have high accuracy but are you getting value odds? If you aren't getting value odds then you won't win long term. 

What sort of edge is your method predicting? (percentage wise?)

[agourbet]

Professional bettors using only asian bookies or betting exchanges because they will not get limited there(at least most of them). Of course there are occasions that even these bookies limit them, because they cannot find bettors to bet on the other side of the trade. If you are living completely by betting, you will always find a way to make your bet. In my opinion it is a business like any other, you just have much more obstacles to overcome than if you have a bakery for example.