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agourbet

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Everything posted by agourbet

  1. In addition to what is previously said, I believe that a successful bettor and a good loser should know how to master gambling psychology. There is a a big difference between a gambler and a smart gambler. Big difference between a losers and a smart loser. Among other things, what defines gamblers and smart gamblers is the knowledge of the gambling psychology. Did you know that the pain of financial loss is more than twice as intense as the pleasure of an equivalent gain. This is fully effective in gambling losses as well, and I m quite sure that the vast majority of gamblers have no idea about it. There is an excellent article for gambling psychology here: https://arbusers.com/portal/smart-gambling-psychology/ Then, the answer to your questions might depend on what kind of gambling action you might have. There are certain gambling techniques and some of them might be considered as red line for bookmakers. Arbing and trading will flag you immediately and will stop your gambling activities with almost every soft bookmaker. But Value Betting…that is another thing. This is the best way to be a good loser…lose while getting the value.
  2. Probably you start with smaller amounts and you check the person credibility. It is the risk of the business i guess. Every business has a risk, their business risk is that someone will steal from them. It is also possible that you can do the person that steal from you a bigger harm that his profit and he knows about this.
  3. In my opinion this strategy is the classic Martingale system. From mathematical perspective you don't have any edge using this system. It is very risky system and it is possible that you will lose all your bankroll. Please do not do this if you value your money.
  4. You need to be very careful with the rules. Every bookie can have has different rules. I had also lost an ice hockey game because i didn't read the rules of the bookie. Always read the rules for extra time,injuries, yellow cards count etc
  5. If you go to archive of the match, the odds that you see is the closing odds.
  6. With odds of 2.92 on average and a success rate of 65%, if we do not include the commission(lets say that you do not bet on exchange) you will basically break even. You need to find an other strategy or refine your strategy. As froment said above, please do not change your staking plan in order to get back your losses. You will never get good results with that.
  7. In my opinion good loser is the one that: 1) Knows that the losing game is part of the winning process 2) He doesn't feel any bad feeling for his loss, because it is a classical outcome in betting business 3) For him the losing game is just a number that he adds in the losing games counter on his excel.
  8. I suggest you to call them everyday until you get an exact day for the refund. The bank trace can take a few days but all depend what bank they use. I have hear stories for 1 month wait for a bank trace but not for bet365 or any betting sites
  9. Thank you for your response! I wish you good results with your project.
  10. How long you run this project harry_rag? Thanks
  11. There is an excellent discussion about value betting, together with analysed data from thousands of value bets. These people went that deep that already found value traps created by bookmakers. It is a situation when you think you have value, but in reality you dont. https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7205.0 Other bettors also posted their experience, some of them claiming having 100.000 Euros value bets. Very insightful and food for thought.
  12. For me the greatest market to trade is NBA. I love the way that they create entertainment and make a game very volatile with a lot of ups and downs.
  13. I totally recommend this product. It is an excellent statistical analysis software that you can find whatever match you want. Very good job!
  14. Hello, can you recommend any online platform in order to play poker? Thank you
  15. In order to become a successful bettor you need to understand 2 concepts. 1) Probability 2) Value Every game has X probabilities for home to win Y for a draw and Z for away to win. The professional bettor needs to do the following: 1) Find what is the true probability of home to win, draw or away to win,based on statistics 2) If for example home has 50% to win then you need to bet on odds above 2.0 in order to be long-term winner. The difference between the true probabilities and odds is the profit of a professional bettor.
  16. It isn't very difficult to create a new strategy or system. You just need to have experience in order to do it correctly. There are communities on internet that give good strategies and system for free, not need to buy one.
  17. Sport betting is like any trading business, you just buy a contract that will give you a payout instead of T-shirt for example. Of course T-shirt doesn't expire,like the bet that you make, but it does go out of fashion. In my opinion you need to treat sport betting like any other business with revenue and liabilities. Sport betting,investing and trading is the same thing in my opinion, you just change the time frame.
  18. Professional bettors using only asian bookies or betting exchanges because they will not get limited there(at least most of them). Of course there are occasions that even these bookies limit them, because they cannot find bettors to bet on the other side of the trade. If you are living completely by betting, you will always find a way to make your bet. In my opinion it is a business like any other, you just have much more obstacles to overcome than if you have a bakery for example.
  19. Backtesting is the way to check if your assumptions are true(your theory works) for a specific period in time.Professionals use it in order to check if their strategy was working in the past. So if it was working they assume that it will work in the future,but there is no guarantee about it.
  20. @zabadac based on your experience using the ELO rating, have you seen any value in it. Does ELO create any advantage to probability calculation to the player? Thank you
  21. Hello, i always keep the results on my excel because i can easily calculate probabilities with my betting history later on.
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