Standard Times

[Capecross]

does anyone have their own set of  'standard times', for all the UK racecourses?

[BillyHills]

@Capecross

Welcome to PL, not sure if someone does they would have a reason to share them with the world but its worth asking I suppose.

Whats wrong with the RP standards by the way??

 

 

[Capecross]

I am surprised and quite disappointed by the lack of response. Surely I am not the only punter, trying to improve the chances of winning. 
Why accept one source of info, RP are not infallible and make mistakes quite often. I have been processing racing info for over thirty years, mainly rating 2yos, then in 2005
I added Sires to my research, I now have info for more than 90000 races. In 2017, I added 3yo+ to my rating system. All have been assessed using my own Standard Times.
Perhaps this info might spark some interest???

[Sir Puntalot]

Please don't create 2 topics for the same thing, this has been merged. 

[Capecross]

1 hour ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Please don't create 2 topics for the same thing, this has been merged. 

sorry, new to this, it won't happen again

[Sir Puntalot]

@Capecross We use a racing feed from the Press Association to produce our horse racing cards, profiles, etc... but I can almost guarantee that the records won't match the RP's, and then you could bring in your stats, and they'd all differ. The reason for that is human/machine error, but at the same time the stats wouldn't be far off from all 3 sources.

We intend to vastly increase our horse racing section in 2020 to include things such as our own Punters Lounge Ratings (PLR), which are done separately by @BillyHills and form the basis of the tips on https://www.punterslounge.com/tips/free-horse-racing-tips which is why we have a tip for every UK/Ireland horse race.   

[Snert]

I use my own standard times that I have collected over the years as I work out my own speed ratings but I still don't have enough results for all the courses and use the RP times for a few courses.

I can't recommend using the RP times

As a very short example at random for Chepstow

                        My time           secs / furlong              RP time           secs / furlong

5f 16y              58.66               11.57                           58                    11.44

7f 16y              82.46               11.67                           80.7                 11.42

 

RP times have a very similar seconds / furlong for the 5f sprint as the 7f race - in fact the 7f race has a slightly faster secs / flng than the 5f sprint - a bit odd !!!

I concentrate on classes 4 and 5 on good going and I would like at least 20 for each course but I'm still collecting them.

It's laborious but I recommend compiling your own times if you need them.

 

[MCLARKE]

It could it be that the 1st 2 furlongs are downhill and then the track levels off for the last 5 furlongs.

[Snert]

I worked out my own Standard Times by trawling through past results - they are different from the RP times - and they work for me.

All I am saying is that if you want reliable times it's probably best to collect your own.

 

[MCLARKE]

I would have thought that RP have a lot more data and IT skills etc. than any particular individual and therefore should be able to produce more accurate standard times.

[Trotter]

On 9/10/2019 at 10:28 AM, Snert said:

RP times have a very similar seconds / furlong for the 5f sprint as the 7f race - in fact the 7f race has a slightly faster secs / flng than the 5f sprint - a bit odd !!

 

I wonder if anomolies like this can partly be accounted for by the fact that it's a standing start from the stalls

Let's say it takes 100 yards for horses to get up to speed ......... that's a bigger proportion of a 5f race than a 7f race during which the horses are not at race speed

I thought about these things a lot when doing all weather speed figures a few years ago but as it was impossible to put it into figures and the likely effect was probably minimal I just ignored it

For betting purposes I was looking for big gaps betwen horses which might mean something rather than a pound here and pound there

[Snert]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I would have thought that RP have a lot more data and IT skills etc. than any particular individual and therefore should be able to produce more accurate standard times.

I Agree - they Should be able to 

[BillyHills]

Found this explanation on how to compile ratings

How Does The Racing Post Calculate Its Topspeed Ratings?

The official line from the Racing Post is that a mature horse carrying 9 stone with a rating of 100 has the ability to meet Racing Post Standard Time in a race that is ‘truly run’ on ‘good’ going. All distances are proportioned back to 5 furlongs and the ratings are calculated on the basis that 1 second at 5 furlongs = 22 pounds.

For National Hunt races, the scenario changes to a mature horse carrying 12 stone with a rating of 135. In this case, 1 second at 2 miles = 6 pounds. Let’s make this a bit clearer with an example using data taken directly from the Racing Post for a Flat race (I’m making up a name of a horse here):

Gentle Ben is a 3 year-old running in a 7 furlong race at Lingfield’s All-Weather track. His weight is 9st 7 pounds and he finishes second 2.5 lengths behind the winner who clocked a winning time of 1 minute 25.99 seconds (85.99 seconds). The Racing Post Standard time for this particular race is 1m 24.20 (84.20 seconds) so the winner was 1.79 seconds slower than standard time.

In this instance, the RP makes a ‘Going Correction’ of 0.24 seconds per furlong. Using the above information, the Racing Post comes up with a Topspeed rating of 59 for Gentle Ben which is achieved with the following set of data:

• Race Distance (D): 7 furlongs which is 1,540 yards (1 furlong is 220 yards; 7 x 220 = 1540).
• Time of Winner (T): 99 seconds.
• Beaten Distance (B): 5. One length is defined as being 3 yards; as Gentle Ben was defeated by 2.5 lengths, he was beaten by 7.5 yards in total (2.5 x 3 = 7.5).
• Total Distance Covered (D2)[For Gentle Ben]: 5 yards. This is because he was beaten by 7.5 yards so he covered 1532.5 yards in 85.99 seconds.
• Speed (S): 82 seconds. This is calculated by dividing the Distance Covered and Time (1532.5/85.99).
• Time Behind Winner (T2): 0.42 seconds. This is calculated by dividing the Beaten Distance and the Speed (7.5/17.82).
• Comparison to Standard Time [C]: +2.21 seconds. This is calculated by adding the Time Behind Winner to the amount of time the winner was outside the RP Standard time mentioned above (0.42 + 1.79).
• Adjusted Comparison (A): +1.58 seconds. Remember, Topspeed ratings are adjusted to 5 furlongs or 1,100 yards. This means we multiply 1,100 by the Comparison to Standard Time and divide it by the actual Race Distance of 7 furlongs or 1,540 yards so (1,100 x 2.21 = 2,431/1,540 = 1.58 when rounded up).
• Going Correction (G): 24 seconds per furlong as mentioned above.
• G2: +2.78 seconds. This is the Going Correction adjusted for 5 furlongs which means 5 x Going Correction + the Adjusted Comparison (5 x 0.24 = 1.2 + 1.58 = 2.78).
• Pounds Equivalent of G2 (P): 16. Again, remember that in Flat races, distances get proportioned back to 5 furlongs and 1 second at 5f equals 22 pounds. Therefore, this figure is achieved by multiplying 22 by the G2 figure of 2.78 so it is (22 x 2.78 = 61.16).
• Weight Adjustment (W): -7. We simply subtract Gentle Ben’s race weight (9 stone 7) from the standard 9 stone figure used by the Racing Post so (126-133 = -7).
• Rating [R]: The formula used by the Racing Post here is (100-W-P + 13 wfa). Wfa stands for Weight for Allowance and is normally less generous to immature horses than the official scale. The 100 figure is of course the stock rating used by the RP for Topspeed so 100-W-P = (100 + 7 – 61.16 (because of the double negative) = 45.84 + 13 = 58.84; this is then rounded up to 59 which is Gentle Ben’s Topspeed rating.

Formula For Flat Races: 100-W + wfa – 22(1100C/D + 5G)

Formula For National Hunt Races: 135-W – 6(3520C/D + 16G). Note that there is no Weight For Allowance for jump race calculations.

[Snert]

Thanks for the input Billy

I believe in the KIS (keep it simple) principle - all I did was make a list of the finishing times of past races  Class 4  and 5 (the races I mostly bet on) on good going for each course.

Disregarding the really slow ones as being tactical races.

From these I established what I considered to be a good average time for each distance.

Simple - but it works for me.

When I am computing my ratings I use a spreadsheet in which I make an adjustment for the going and the class of race, weight carried and the distance beaten by .

I am happy with my results - I am not saying that Racing Post standard times are rubbish - I just prefer to use my own.