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IPL - Indian Premier League 2019


Fader
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On 4/13/2019 at 11:26 AM, Absurdity1007 said:

Betting on individual T20 matches, particularly in a tournament like this, where the matches come thick and fast, is usually a bit of a lottery, and very difficult to predict and find value. Yes, the likes of Chennai, KKR and Sunrisers, are the stronger teams, and will rise to the top over the course of 14 matches, but each individual match is fairly unpredictable.

 

I think I have found a couple of areas of value though, one really obvious one and one not so clear cut:

 

1. The easiest way to make money on this tournament is simply by betting on RCB to lose. I can’t believe that they still go into most matches as almost favourites, given how bad they are. Are the bookies hugely over-estimating Kohli and De Villiers? They are a diabolical team. I love seeing a team of individual superstars in any sport getting their comeuppance at the hand of teams that actually work together as a unit, and this is no different.

If the situation changes, we can reassess and perhaps back out, but for now we need to be lumping on RCB to lose each time they play. I’m not sure why this hasn’t been tipped up more strongly here so far? Is this not where the value lies in this tournament? How are they still favourites or almost favourites each time they play?

 

2. I think IPL is generally a tournament where home teams win, rather than the better team, and again, I don’t think the odds quite reflect that, and tend to favour the better of the two teams instead. I will be trying betting on the home team (apart from RCB matches) for the rest of the tournament, as I think this should make a slight profit.

 

I can’t find much other value, unless there are odd matches here and there where the bookies have got their lines off for sixes or total runs or something like that.

I think that most other markets are just lotteries, things like most sixes, highest opening partnership, highest first six overs score.

Can I ask Fader why you think there is value in top batsmen/top bowlers/man of the match bets? Do you not think that they are also a bit of a lottery and the bookies odds are fairly spot on in terms of how they are spread amongst the players?

I go off the prices available. If they are going to offer somebody like Russell prices of 5/6/7/8 to 1 then that is value because he is the power scorer in that team. 

Do I think they are a lottery? sometimes, ofcourse. Are they spot on with odds, no. There are players that fail every game, being an opener and yet they are favourite each time.

one thing i do think though, is these questions will come up after a couple of losers, and never with multiple winners. Also, it's very easier to oppose 6 7 8 to ones and notso odds on shots..

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Hyderabad Vs Delhi

Delhi look a spot of value today. Going to take some MOTM bets today. Rabada has been on fire this season. Bairstow has been on of the most consistent top order batsman this season. Both look a decent price. 

1pt Rabada man of the match - 12/1 bet365
1pt Bairstow man of the match - 8/1 ladbrokes

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wow, Rabada 4 wickets and doesn't get man of the match, but Paul, 3 wicket does. 

Absurdity - Yeah, maybe you're on to something. Top batsman etc isn't the only type of bet I do on the IPL. I would say if it was the only bet somebody was looking at then it probably wouldn't be profitable the course of a season. Same as only "man of the match" bets. 

we'll see how the season pans out.

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Mumbai Indians take on Royal Challengers. Mumbai have won 2 and lost 2 at home this season, where as RCB have lost all 3 of their away matches. These two have already met at Bengalaru and MI won that by 6 runs. That was despite their two "big hitters" performing well, (ABDV 70 and Kohli 46). I'm on Mumbai Indians here. RCB will be buoyed by their first win (despite being urged to lay them every game above)

I'll take ABDV to perform here for the RCB. He hit 70 on home turf in this fixture and of the two most likely here, I would side with him over Kohli. I also expect a decent game from HHPandya. Before the Rajastian match, he had taken 6 wickets in 3 matches. He only bowled 1.3 overs in that match to be fair. if he's given the ball, he'll strike.

5.5pts Mumbai Indians to beat RCB 8/11 paddypower
2pts HHPandya (Top Mumbai Bowler) 9/2 bet365
2pts ABDV (Top RCB batsman) 3/1 Marathon

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Good match yesterday. If it wasn't for AB though, RCB may aswell not turn up.

Kings Punjab take on Rajasthan today. Played the reverse fixture already and Kings won that tie by 14 runs after Kings posted a 184/4. As expected really Gayle and Butler were the men that shined bright that day and it wouldn't be a big suprise if that were the case again today. I've thought about this too much really and I can't come up with anything I like enough. I prefer Kings, but Raja are probably the value so it's a no bet for me.
 

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Hyderabad Vs Chennai today then. Hyderabad after a good start to the season at home beating Rajasthan with their biggest chase and then beating Royal Challengers, have lost 2 in a row with poultry scores of 96 all out and 116 all out. On the other side, Chennai are enjoying good form this season away from home where they have won 3 of the 4 they have played.

It's no suprise I'll be taking Chennai here. The price is pretty good considering the two teams form. I'll stick with Du Ples with an outside bet on Dhoni for Chennai. Hyderabad very much a 2 man show in the batting line-up and it's just not worth picking one in this. I'm also quite tempted by the unders in this match but I'll stick with these three.

5pts Chennai Super Kings to beat Hyderabad Sunrisers 4/5 bet365
2pts Du Ples top Chennai batsman 7/2 bet365
1pt Dhoni top Chennai batsman 7/1 paddypower

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Difficult one to call for me today. I can see the value in Delhi but I would probably go the other way.

I'm going to take De Kock top batsman. He's looked solid in his last couple of matches, top scoring for his 2 out of the last 3. I'll take Rabada as top bowler for Delhi. The guy is on fire at the moment. I like Iyer for top batsman for Delhi, but that price is just too short. I can't be having Ke Kock at 3s and Iyer at 3 and a half when Shaw, Dhawan & Pant need to perish before hand.

2pts De Kock top batsman (Mumbai) 3/1 bet365
2pts Rabada top bowler (Delhi) 3/1 bet365
0.5pts K.Pollard MOTM 14/1 bet365

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Chennai Super Kings Vs Hyderabad

Chennai unbeaten at home this year, winning all 4 of their matches. However, the wheels may have fallen off as they have lost back-2-back away. Hyderabad's record away is 1 win in 3, however, they beat Chennai at home just six days ago.

Both teams strength and weakness is their opening partnership. If Warner or Bairstow goes early, Hyderbad tend to lose. If Du Pless goes early, similar. You would have to say the value is with Hyderabad here. I would expect the runs to be kept low, Du Pless with that in mind, if he goes early, there could be some value in the batting market. Looking at the market, bizarrely, Bravo is 35/1 with Paddypower (10/1 in some places) That's too big in my opinion.

5pts Hyderabad to beat Chennai 11/10 bet365
0.5pt D.Bravo top Chennai batsman 35/1 paddypower
1pt Dhoni Man Of The Match 12/1 bet365

 

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4 hours ago, Fader said:

Chennai Super Kings Vs Hyderabad

Chennai unbeaten at home this year, winning all 4 of their matches. However, the wheels may have fallen off as they have lost back-2-back away. Hyderabad's record away is 1 win in 3, however, they beat Chennai at home just six days ago.

Both teams strength and weakness is their opening partnership. If Warner or Bairstow goes early, Hyderbad tend to lose. If Du Pless goes early, similar. You would have to say the value is with Hyderabad here. I would expect the runs to be kept low, Du Pless with that in mind, if he goes early, there could be some value in the batting market. Looking at the market, bizarrely, Bravo is 35/1 with Paddypower (10/1 in some places) That's too big in my opinion.

5pts Hyderabad to beat Chennai 11/10 bet365
0.5pt D.Bravo top Chennai batsman 35/1 paddypower
1pt Dhoni Man Of The Match 12/1 bet365

 

I'm glad you've had to call the bets on this one because it's too close to call for me. I still feel Chennai Super Kings are a different beast at home and the away defeats shouldn't have too much impact on this game. However, as you rightly pointed out, Hyderabad were one of those defeats so it could be more psychological. I'd probably still just favour the home side to get revenge.

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Some of the worst bowling I've seen lastnight. Shocking from Sandeep.

RCB Vs Kings Punjab

Bottom placed RCB at home today facing Kings Punjab. RCB have abit of form at the moment. Won their first home tie against Chennai 3 days ago and they have 3 wins from their last 4 now. Not to mention they won the away tie of this fixture. The one key ingredient is the form of their batsman with Patel, ABDV and Kohli all taking turns recently to bat well.

Kings Punjab 1 win from 5 away and 4 losses in a row away. Gayle and Rahul hold so much of their hopes and recently barring a 100 from Rahul (they still lost) their hasn't been much to shout about.

This really looks another coin-flip. I would favour RCB but cannot believe their price (8/11) it's just far to short. I will instead look to the top batsman markets. You would have to say Gayle is in the right form here, but again too short. I will take Gayle to hit the "most sixes" in this one. It should be a high scoring match and if he gets in, he just hits 6s so effortlessly.

On the other side, Patel is 4/1 and is an opener. he also has a little bit of form hitting 53 against Chennai in that win.

2pts P.Patel top RCB batsman 4/1 ladbrokes
2pts C.Gayle to hit the most 6s in the match 7/2 paddypower

 

 

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Battle of the poor form today as Kolkata Knight Riders (lost 5 in a row, including 3 at home) host The Rajasthan Royals (lost 3 out of the 4 away matches) You would say that Raja have the better form just in the sense they have won 2 of the last 4. Both of these teams actually score well, but the bowling lets them down big time.

Kolkata started this season so well with 4 wins from the first 5 and then since then it's fallen apart. They need to get back to winning ways, and that will only come if they bowl better and restrict because they are giving away far too many runs.

There is no Buttler today and that could be the difference today because he can win a match on his own. Rahane and Smith will be the ones to rely on in this match.

I fancy Kolkata in this and the 4/6 on offer at Coral is just about big enough for me to have a bet on them. I will also go with Russell (as usual) although I feel Rana is doing a job at home and so i'll take him too (5 matches at home, Rana has hit 60+ in 3 of them)

6pts Kolkata to beat Rajasthan 4/6 coral
1.5pts A.Russell top Kolkata batsman 5/1 ladbrokes
1.5pts Rana top Kolkata batsman 5/1 ladbrokes
3pts rahane top raja batsman 10/3 paddypower

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KKR vs RR

Looks like a high scoring match considering both the bowling attacks are not good. 

Average first innings score in Eden gardens this season is 190. The only time the score was around 160 was against CSK and considering their bowling attack that was bound to happen. I am expecting a good 200+ score. So I will go with 

2PTS Total runs in match: Over 340.5 @1.90 Bet365

Kolkata won the reverse fixture this season by restricting RR to 139, which was chased easily by them in 14 Overs. I expect KKR to win this match. However, the odds are too short for this and I will wait till the toss. 

The only player in form (not including Jos Buttler) for RR is Rahane and not being a captain has helped relieve pressure from his shoulders and he can concentrate more on his batting: 

3PTS Rahane top RR batsman @3.5 Betfair

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Chennai Super Kings take on Mumbai Indians. Chennai have lost the last couple away but at home they are very solid and have won every match they have played. Mumbai beat Chennai at home already this season but I'm trusting Chennai at home. I think Du Ples has been quite unlucky these past couple of weeks with a couple of run outs in an over-wise solid bit of form. I will take Du Ples to be top scorer for his side also.

5.5pts Chennai to beat Mumbai 10/11 bet365
2pts Du Plessis top Chennai batsman 7/2 bet365

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6 hours ago, Fader said:

Chennai Super Kings take on Mumbai Indians. Chennai have lost the last couple away but at home they are very solid and have won every match they have played. Mumbai beat Chennai at home already this season but I'm trusting Chennai at home. I think Du Ples has been quite unlucky these past couple of weeks with a couple of run outs in an over-wise solid bit of form. I will take Du Ples to be top scorer for his side also.

5.5pts Chennai to beat Mumbai 10/11 bet365
2pts Du Plessis top Chennai batsman 7/2 bet365

You've picked an exciting one here mate. Pressure on Chennai after losing those early wickets but if they can get a few boundaries in the next couple of overs then it opens it right back up again.

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17 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

You've picked an exciting one here mate. Pressure on Chennai after losing those early wickets but if they can get a few boundaries in the next couple of overs then it opens it right back up again.

Really annoyed me this because I saw nowhere that Du Plessis wasn't playing. I never would have taken Chennai to win at odds on without Du Plessis. and infact once it was announced they went from odds on to 6/5. 

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Rajasthan Royals Vs Hyderabad today.

Rajasthan 2 wins from their last 3 and Hyderabad much the same, 2 wins from their last 3. Rajasthan's form at home has been abit dodgy this season. They have lost 4 and of the 2 matches they have won at home, one was against Royal Challengers in their dour patch.

No butter for Rajasthan today. They also missing in my eyes their main bowler in Archer and they are missing Stokes too. Surely Hyderabad will be the ones to back today? The likes of Turner coming in doesn't fill with confidence. He has had 3 matches and gone out for 0 on every single match.

No Bairstow for Hyderabad, but the likes of Kane Williamson and Guptil are top quality replacements. I like the look of the Hyderabad batting line up. Warner looks the man to back but he is too short for me, instead on the other side I'm going to back an outsider in Binny. In my eyes Raja could fall apart and Binny has shown in previous matches he can bat. 20/1 is huge and so worth half a point.

6pts Hyderbad to beat Raja Royals 4/6 ladbrokes
0.5pts Binny top batsman for Raja 20/1 ladbrokes

 

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Hyderabad Vs Kings Punjab

Big game for both. Both sit on 10pts and the winner would be in the play-off position. Where as you would think for the loser the dream is over. Both have pretty average form, although it seems so random nowadays that perhaps form doesn't even matter no more. Both teams just 2 wins from their last 7 so somewhat falling over the line for qualification.

I suppose on the plus side for Hyderabad is that they have pretty sound home form (4 wins,2 losses) where as Kings away form has been pretty terrible with only 1 win from their 6. Kings have already beaten Hyderabad at home this season, although Kings home form is what has got them to the play-off chances. Warner and Rahul were the stars of the show that day. With a 70 and a 71 both not out. It was a very close match.

Kings have no missing players from the World Cup plans where as Bairstow is still missing and looks important for Hyderabad. With that in mind, I'll take Kings to win at a decent price. I'll stick with the solid opener Rahul as top batsman and side with Pandey on the other side. Pandey has hit 83 and 61 in the 2 away matches since Bairstow's departure and although Warner should be the man to lead Hyderabad, the value is with Pandey. (Who top scored here last year) (54)

5pts Kings to beat Hyderabad 11/10 bet365
1.5pts Pandey top Hyderabad batsman 5/1 paddypower
2pts Rahul top Kings batsman 11/4 ladbrokes

 

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Can't pick a outright winner if my life depends on it, but atleast the batsman are doing the business. Today RCB take on Rajasthan. RCB have won their last 2 at home and even when losing they've scored albeit one match. Their weakness is obviously with the ball. Rajasthan hit and miss away, one win follows a loss. They also score pretty well, so I expect this to be high scoring but picking a winner? I like RCB but no value atall. Raja perhaps value but I'm with the side-markets.

For Raja, Rahane has been pretty solid, but I'm going to side with Samson. He has looked sharp since returning. Decent scores in 2 of the last 3 away and a top score last time out at home, he looks the value past Rahane. For RCB, although I like Klaasen and Hetmyer, I will side with ABDV to strike again

2pts Samson top Raja batsman 4/1 paddypower
2pts ABDV top RCB batsman 11/4 bet365

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Chennai Vs Delhi Capitals
Chennai was going strong at home, winning 5 in a row but recently a couple of losses and their first loss at home, they look abit disjointed. I hated the Du Plessis sized hole they left in their last match and hey ho, they lost. Regardless of him being back here, I think Delhi are the value bet. 5 wins in a row away from home and with solid batsman and bowlers they can get revenge for the loss at home.

Although Dhawan would be the likely man to hit the runs, there is too big a price on Raina and Pant here. And an even bigger price on Santner to be the top bowler for Chennai.

5pts Delhi to beat Chennai 6/5 Boylesports
2pts S.Raina top Chennai batsman 9/2 boylesports
2pts Pant top Delhi batsman 9/2 boylesports
1pt Santner top Chennai bowler 4/1 bet365

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Mumbai Indians Vs Hyderabad

Mumbai Indians come into this 3rd in the table. Hyderabad 4th. This match could conclude the 4 teams for qualification. If Hyderabad wins it, we will have our 4 playoff teams (although not mathematically). If Mumbai wins it, Hyderabad will know Kolkata would be level on points with a win in their next match. So it's far more important for Hyderabad.

Mumbai comes into this match with some decent form at home. 3 wins from 4 and scoring decent (181.75 average for last 4 home matches) The batting has been shared somewhat, but with De Kock in form with an 81 and a 40, they have a solid opener. Mumbai performed awful in the away tie between these two, going all out for just 96.

Hyderabad comes into this match with the opposite. Poor form in which they have lost 4 out of their 5 away games this season. They are scoring decent, but not as much as Mumbai with an average of 159.40 for their 5 away matches. 

We still have no Bairstow today for Hyderabad, but we also will be missing David Warner for Hyderabad now which is a big, big loss. These two have been the main staple in the Hyderabad's scoring this season. Guptil and Kane Williamson are great batsmen but they need to settle quickly. 

Mumbai looks the team to back here, but the price doesn't appeal at all, so side markets look the way to go for me. Hyderabads top order doesn't fill me with confidence so I will stick with Pandey to stay in the crease. Nabi tempts me as a little outsider at such a big price. On the other side, it would be a coin-flip between Sharma and De Kock. I'm not interested in this, so I'll side with Hardik Pandya to do the business again. He has been solid at home this season with scores of 32,42 and 37 and if given the chance could go well here. 

2pts M.Pandey top Hyderabad batsman 9/2 william hill
0.5pts Nabi top Hyderabad batsman 10/1 paddypower
1pt HPandya top Mumbai batsman 7/1 ladbrokes

 

 

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