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IPL - Indian Premier League 2019


Fader
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Hyderabad would have won if they had Nabi higher up the order. Pandya was too low too. I would have had him above Lewis at least. At least Pandey does the business again. 

saying that it's ended a draw ha! glad I left the match market alone. Good match though.

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Kings Punjab takes on Kolkata tomorrow in what is a very important match. Both teams sit on 10pts and so the winner would be level points with Sunrisers Hyderabad with only one match to go. At home, Kings have a better form with 4 wins out of 5 and the only defeat being against RCB. Kolkata has lost 3 of the 5 of their fixtures away including a super-over loss against Delhi. The reverse of this fixture, in which Kolkata was at home, Kolkata won.

Match market wise, I think Kings look value at evens but again, I just think both teams bowling is pathetic and to be honest, barring 1 or 2 batsmen on both teams, the attack is too.

It's no surprise I will take Rahul to be top batsman once again. This guy has been solid throughout and has been top batsman for Kings 3 out of the 5 matches at home. I'll also take a point bet on Pooran. For Kolkata, I'll take Uthappa to replicate his 67 not out in the previous tie between these two. I also think Rana could go well. So expect it to be Rana.

2pts Rahul top Kings batsman 5/2 bet365
1pt Pooran top Kings batsman 6/1 ladbrokes
2pts Uthappa top Kolkata batsman 9/2 williamhill


 

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I've missed the early match today but an important game this afternoon as Hyderabad take on RCB. Hyderabad need a win to keep in 4th place and the final place up for grabs whilst RCB effectively have nothing to play for in this last match. Hyderabad won the reverse of this at home by 118 runs. However, that was won purely by Warner and Bairstow with a ton each.

RCB have won the last 3 at home. Hyderabad have lost the last 3 away. Hyderabad though with the necessity to win look value at evens. I wont touch the outright market again. I will choose the batsman once again and I'l stick with Pandey. I'll go with Stoinis on the other side as a big outsider.

2pts Pandey top hyderabad batsman 9/2 betfred
1pt Stoinis top RCB batsman 8/1 ladbrokes

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Final match of the group stage is Mumbai Indians Vs Kolkata. I will leave the outright market and head to the side markets. I'll take H.Pandya once again and on the other side we'll stick with Russell. 

1pt H.Pandya 6/1 top mumbai batsman paddypower
1pt A.Russell 4/1 top kolkata batsman paddypower

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League stage over and we're into the play-offs. Today we have the first play-off and it's Chennai Super kings who take on Mumbai Indians. These two finished 1st and 2nd.

Super kings are largely thanks to their early season form. They won 7 of their first 8 matches, compared to just 2 of their last 6. Compare that to Mumbai Indians who have left their good form to the end of the season winning 5 of their last 7 and the only team in the league to have back-to-back wins in their last 2.

I like the Mumbai Indians here. They seem to have abit of a hold on Chennai and have beaten them both times this season and indeed have won at this ground 4 in the last 6 matches. The main reason for that is they have limited them to poultry amounts of 109 All out and 133/8. That's largely down to the form of Malinga against these boys and the Pandya's.  Malinga 7 wickets in 2 matches against Chennai and HH Pandya 4.

Rohit Sharma got a 67 here and i'll back him to be top batsman for Mumbai. De Kock hasn't had it easy against Chennai's Chahar who has taken him for 15 and 4 in their match-ups this season respectively. KH Pandya has tempted me enough at 9s. For CSK, Du Plessis would probably be the pick, but I'll take an outsider point at Jadhav, who got a 58 at Mumbai. Finally, I'll take a couple of the Man Of The Match bets. For similar reasons as above.

5pts Mumbai Indians to beat Chennai Super Kings 4/5 bet365
2pts R.Sharma top Mumbai batsman 11/4 bet365
0.5pts KH Pandya top Mumbai batsman 9/1 bet365
1pt Jadhav top Kings batsman 7/1 ladbrokes
0.5pts Malinga MOTM 16/1 ladbrokes
0.5pts KPandya MOTM 20/1 paddypower


 

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So we know our first finalists. Today's match will be Delhi Capitals Vs Hyderabad. The loser of this is out, the winner plays CSK for a place in the final against Mumbai Indians. We're at Visakhapatnam for this match and although it's not either of these two home ground, it's been Hyderabad's home ground in the past. Back in 2015 they played a handful of their home matches there and in 2016, 3 different teams had this as their home ground for a while. So Hyderabad will know the ground, which may well give them an edge.

Hyderabad snuck into 4th place this season. They had some good early form (winning 3 of the first 4) but unsuprinsingly the form has tailed off once they lost Bairstow and Warner. (1 win in last 5) Delhi Capitals finished 3rd and have won 4 of their last 5. Head-2-head between these two shows us that this season, each team beat the other away from home.

I fancy Delhi Capitals to win this one but the price is just too short for me here. Delhi will be missing Rabada today and he is huge for them. He took 4 wickets when they beat Hyderabad last month. Hyderabads form is just too patchy since they lost their main openers and the replacements haven't been in good enough form so the match market is a no-go for me,

Batsman, I'll take Pandey for Hyderabad with an uncertain opening partnership and for Delhi I will take Iyer who has a top score home and away against Hyderabad this season (45 & 43)

2pts M.Pandey top Hyderabad batsman 4/1 bet365
2pts S.Iyer top Delhi batsman 3/1 888sport
0.5pts KK Ahmed MOTM 20/1 bet365
0.5pts S.Iyer MOTM 14/1 betway

.

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Wow, Delhi wins, but they can thank some schoolboy errors from Kane Williamson as a captain. KK Ahmed with 2 wickets from 2 overs and he gives the 18th over to Thampi who gave away 21 in the over. If he gives it to Ahmed, Hyderabad very likely win and most likely I the MOTM on Ahmed :(

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Chennai Super Kings Vs Delhi Capitals today in what is effectively a Semi-Final. Winner plays Mumbai Indians in the final. We're at the same ground as the Eliminator that Delhi won a couple of days ago. That may favour Delhi. Delhi has also played on this ground a couple of times in the past.

Chennai have beaten Delhi both times this season. Away it was a close match, but at home they dominated. Delhi would be in the best form with 6 of the last 7 matches. Chennai 1 win in the last 4. Delhi look the value here. Chennai look vulnerable batting with Du Plessis looking like he was carrying an injury in the last match and the others in the top order being sketchy at best. It would a much better bet if Delhi were to bat 2nd but I'm happy to take the price on Delhi now.

In the batsman bets, as mentioned Chennai are sketchy at the top. That brings me down to Dhoni who is 6/1 with Paddypower. Donhi has saved Chennai so many times and it's a price I can't ignore. For Delhi, take your pick. Pant, Iyer and Dhawan all seem to take turns which put me off a bet on that market.

5pts Delhi Capitals to beat Chennai Super Kings 11/10 Paddypower
1.5pts Dhoni top Chennai basman 6/1 paddypower

 

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Finals day. Mumbai Indians take on Chennai Super Kings for the trophy. Chennai finally produced the goods in the "Semi- Finals" against Delhi. Mumbai Indians 3 wins a row and 6 wins from 8 where as Chennai just 1 win from 3 and 3 wins from 8. This final will be played at Hyderabad's stadium. 

Mumbai have a brilliant record against Chennai. They have beaten them 3 times in a row this season and all with relative ease. In-fact they have won 7 of the last 8 against Chennai Super Kings. Here at the Hyderabad stadium, Mumbai beat Hyderabad with ease whilst Chennai struggled on this ground, losing that match too.

Everything points to Mumbai Indians taking the trophy. They have depth in every department. I think Chennai and perhaps both teams will go down the line of batsman as the bowlers are performing. I will try Dhoni again on this one at a decent price. I'll also 

6pts Mumbai Indians to beat Chennai Super Kings 5/6 betfair
1.5pts Dhoni to be top Chennai Batsman 5/1 paddypower
1.5pts Yadav top Mumbai Batsman 5/1 sportingbet
0.5pts K.Pandya top Mumbai Batsman 10/1 betfair

 

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On 5/13/2019 at 11:44 PM, Stegosaurus said:

Well, cricket is difficult enough to bet on at the best of times, and T20 cricket - as you'd expect - even more so. However, this year's IPL really took the biscuit. What an absolute nightmare to try and make a profit on! We may have to avoid this tournament altogether in future, or at least think very carefully about how to possibly make money on this one.

 

A good effort on the player markets Fader, I have you in slight profit on that one, which is impressive.

 

However, I think we all took a severe battering on the team markets, I just don't see any way to make money on those at all. Does anybody have any suggestions for next year as to how we can overcome the betting minefield which is the IPL?

Certainly seems like a minefield. Especially the outright match markets. I think that's the point of T20 though to be honest. And indeed the IPL. They want action all the way and quickfire games, so there is going to be some random outcomes. Very much a "who does well on the day" kind of outcome. I find it quite similar to the Premier League in the darts. The matches are so quick that it's hard to pick a winner and with the draw in the market too, you have to find other ways in.

I suppose we'll have to see. I think I'll stick to the player markets next season. But I can see why someone would steer clear of the IPL all together from a betting perspective.

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  • 1 month later...
On 5/15/2019 at 4:19 PM, Fader said:

Very much a "who does well on the day" kind of outcome.

I agree with that, and the way I react is by betting in-running - usually at half time or after. And usually backing the team with runs on the board. Yesterday's ODI was a good example. I was able to get 4/7 Australia, I think about 15 overs into the SL reply when SL were going well (sorry to after-time).

 

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